CQ ROUNDTABLE: A Divided Congress Could Aid Clinton

By Ronald D. Elving

Given the healthy economy and the unhappy state of Bob Dole's campaign, President Clinton would be churlish to ask for anything more.

But just to stretch good fortune to the breaking point, consider this ideal scenario for the White House: resounding re- election for the president, a breakthrough victory for Democrats in the Senate and continued Republican control of the House.

A Democratic Senate would brighten Clinton's outlook by confirming his appointments, enabling him to reform his Cabinet, realign the Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve Board and restock the federal judiciary in general.

The Supreme Court is the richest of these opportunities: Clinton might well have the occasion to appoint two or three more new justices, making him the first president since Dwight D. Eisenhower to install five.

Justice John Paul Stevens is 76 and Chief Justice William Rehnquist turns 72 on Oct. 1. A third prospect for retirement is Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, 66, who has had a bout with cancer.

With Democrats in charge of the Senate, Clinton might shape a moderate-to-liberal majority on the high court. If Trent Lott of Mississippi is the Senate Majority Leader, Clinton might be lucky to sneak through a centrist, such as his 1994 appointee Stephen Breyer.

But a Republican House could be useful as well, assuming a second Clinton administration opts for practical goals and appreciates its political predicament.

In November, Clinton will end a lifetime campaign for the presidency and begin his campaign for history. If he sees his legacy as a smaller and more fiscally sound federal government - meaning more deficit reduction and the restraint of growth in entitlements - he will have more room to maneuver with a Republican House.

To be sure, House Democrats have been talking lately of modest aims and incremental change. But if the party's old fires are banked for the season, a return to majority status this November should be more than enough to stir the embers.

Seniority would install in House committee chairmanships a cadre of the Democrats' most senior and most liberal members - including Charles B. Rangel at Ways and Means, David R. Obey at Appropriations, George Miller at Resources and perhaps even Henry B. Gonzalez at Banking.

This "Old Democrat" lineup, along with the likely floor leadership of Richard A. Gephardt, David E. Bonior and Vic Fazio (assuming all are re-elected), would be far less committed to the "New Democrat" agenda Clinton purportedly espouses.

When last the Democrats ruled Capitol Hill, less than two years ago, the failed communication between the branches, the chambers and the factions produced policy failure and political disaster.

Since then, by contrast, divided government has worked marvelously to the president's advantage. He has brought himself back from the brink by playing off the excesses (or at least the bad public relations) of the House Republicans, particularly House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

A Democratic House would deprive Clinton of the onetime firebrand who has become his perfect foil (and who, far more than bad-boy consultant Dick Morris, helped revive this presidency).

Gingrich has said he would not lead the GOP in minority status, and if he did step down he would be sorely missed - if not by every Republican, then by every Democratic media consultant, ad maker and speech writer.

In contrast, a second Clinton term with the House under its current management would enable the president to have it both ways. He could bargain with Gingrich for what he wanted on one hand and blame Gingrich for unpleasant events on the other.

Whoever occupies the Whie House throughout the remainder of the decade will almost surely need to accept some form of Medicare restraint and Social Security reform. If the GOP remains in the power game and bears some of the responsibility for these moves, Clinton and the Democrats stand some chance of surviving the midterm elections of 1998 and walking upright into the election cycle of 2000.

Democrats will celebrate wildly if they seize control of both chambers in November, of course. And just as obviously, no one in the White House could ever acknowledge a preference for a Republican outcome anywhere so long as the electoral battles are joined.

But if Election Day brings the Democrats the Senate while leaving the Republicans with a slim margin in the House, the president's crew could be forgiven for feeling they had the best of both worlds.

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