Skip to main content

How Putin carries out power grab

By Agnia Grigas
updated 7:47 AM EST, Tue March 4, 2014
Ukrainian tanks are transported from their base in Perevalne, Crimea, on Wednesday, March 26. After Russian troops seized most of Ukraine's bases in Crimea, interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov ordered the withdrawal of armed forces from the peninsula, citing Russian threats to the lives of military staff and their families. Ukrainian tanks are transported from their base in Perevalne, Crimea, on Wednesday, March 26. After Russian troops seized most of Ukraine's bases in Crimea, interim Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov ordered the withdrawal of armed forces from the peninsula, citing Russian threats to the lives of military staff and their families.
HIDE CAPTION
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
Crisis in Ukraine
<<
<
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
>
>>
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • Agnia Grigas: Vladimir Putin has made effective use of his "compatriot" policy
  • It enables Russia to gain territory in areas where ethnic Russians and Russian speakers live
  • She says Crimea is a place where Russia can claim it was acting for "compatriots"
  • Grigas: Other nations in Russia's neighborhood should pay attention

Editor's note: Agnia Grigas has served as an adviser in the Lithuanian government and holds a doctorate in international relations from the University of Oxford. Grigas, who consults for multinational corporations investing in emerging markets, is the author of "The Politics of Energy and Memory between the Baltic States and Russia" (Ashgate 2013).

(CNN) -- With the Russian military having effectively taken control of Crimea, a permanent division of Ukraine is becoming increasingly likely. Russian President Vladimir Putin's request to the Russian Senate to approve military intervention in Ukraine in order to "protect citizens of Russia" highlights how once seemingly innocuous "compatriot policies" are being used by Moscow to justify military efforts to regain Crimea for Russia.

Russia's compatriot policies are officially meant to protect ethnic Russians living in nearby countries, but have served Russia's territorial expansionism in the past.

Agnia Grigas
Agnia Grigas

In fact these compatriot policies can be viewed as part of Putin's new military doctrine that seeks territorial gains in the former Soviet republics, particularly where there is a receptive population of Russian speakers.

The compatriot policies, outlined in Russia's "National Security Strategy to 2020," were introduced in 2000 during Putin's first presidential term. They call for the political, economic and, potentially, military protection of the rights and interests of Russian citizens and ethnic Russians living abroad.

An effective tactic associated with the policies is to give Russian citizenship to ethnic Russians in foreign states so as to better protect their interests. Tellingly, Russia's national security strategy emphasizes that compatriots are an important tool for achieving Russia's foreign policy aims.

Mystery men or Russian military?
Albright: Putin miscalculated in Ukraine
Putin, Obama disagree on Ukraine crisis

Map: A divided Ukraine

Looking at Russia's neighborhood, one can already see how compatriot policy has assisted Russia's foreign policy and territorial expansion. Prior to the Georgian-Russian war in 2008, Georgia was seeking closer relations with the West and distancing itself from Russia (in a very similar vein to Ukraine today).

Meanwhile Moscow was handing out citizenship to the inhabitants of the separatist Georgian territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Thus the "protection of Russian citizens" became one of Russia's main motives for going to war with Georgia in 2008 and securing South Ossetia and Abkhazia as Russian protectorates.

But Ukraine does not have to look to the Caucasus to see compatriot policy in action. On Ukraine's southwestern border, Transnistria is a separatist territory of Moldova which has also become effectively a Russian military-controlled territory as the Kremlin sought to "protect" the Russian speakers and eventually Russian citizens.

Opinion: The two Putins

Farther afield, Russia has also taken great pains to cultivate the loyalty of its compatriots in the Baltic states, particularly in Estonia and Latvia. Well aware of Russia's compatriot tactics, Lithuania, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the U.N. Security Council, called an urgent meeting and also invoked the NATO treaty on Ukraine.

For Moscow, Crimea is much more important than South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transnistria. First, Crimea became Ukrainian territory only in 1954 when the Soviet Union's leader Nikita Khrushchev gave it to Kiev under the overall authority of the Soviet Union. Its loss after the disintegration of the Soviet Union was a major blow to leaders in Moscow.

Ukraine: Everything you need to know
Ethnic Russians show support for Moscow
NATO calls emergency meeting on Ukraine

Second, Sevastopol, one of Crimea's major cities, serves as the naval base for Russia's Black Sea fleet. It is a prized territory that allows the Russian navy direct access to the Mediterranean.

Crimea is a particularly soft target for Russia's compatriot policies. Unlike Western Ukraine, where people speak Ukrainian, or even Eastern Ukraine, which is Russian speaking, Crimea is predominantly ethnically Russian.

Opinion: Putin's Ukranian endgame

With Crimea's Russians protesting the turn of events in Kiev's Independence Square and expressing their solidarity with Moscow, a secessionist movement is almost inevitable. Already, the Crimean parliament announced that it would hold a referendum to increase the peninsula's autonomy from Ukraine and installed a pro-Russian prime minister.

While Crimea's fate seems almost certain to follow those of South Ossetia, Abkhazia or Transnistria, other states near Russia that also have significant populations of Russian speakers should be vigilant.

Putin's compatriot doctrine is here to stay. Thus it is no wonder Georgia will likely be urgently seeking integration with NATO and the EU. Ukraine should stabilize its government and consider following suit.

Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion.

Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Agnia Grigas.

ADVERTISEMENT
Part of complete coverage on
updated 8:00 PM EDT, Sun August 31, 2014
CNN's Diana Magnay reports from the front lines in the Ukrainian conflict.
updated 7:26 AM EDT, Mon September 1, 2014
A few miles south of the town of Starobeshevo in eastern Ukraine, a group of men in uniform is slumped under a tree.
updated 11:30 AM EDT, Fri August 29, 2014
Russia is accused of being directly involved in Ukraine fighting. Diplomacy has failed, argues one commentator.
updated 9:27 AM EDT, Fri August 29, 2014
It's been building for months. And now, according to some, Russia has launched a "full-scale invasion" of Ukraine.
updated 8:44 AM EDT, Thu August 28, 2014
The EU announces it will pay for temporary storage of butter, skimmed milk powder and certain cheeses
updated 9:43 AM EDT, Sat August 23, 2014
A shopkeeper's mutilated body, relatives' anguish, homes destroyed ... this is Donetsk.
updated 9:38 AM EDT, Sat August 23, 2014
Photojournalist Jonathan Alpeyrie explains how he captured rare images of a rebel funeral, and was arrested for his efforts.
updated 7:12 AM EDT, Tue August 19, 2014
A 20-minute drive from Kiev takes you to a neighborhood that feels more like Beverly Hills than central Ukraine.
updated 3:35 PM EDT, Sat August 30, 2014
Photos illustrate the ongoing crisis in Ukraine as fighting continues to flare in the region.
updated 8:34 AM EDT, Thu August 7, 2014
Western leaders stepped up sanctions, but the Russian President shows no sign of backing down.
updated 7:55 AM EDT, Mon August 4, 2014
Despite mortar fire echoing in the distance, the international team combed through the wreckage of MH17.
updated 7:08 AM EDT, Thu July 31, 2014
The road isn't easy -- past shelling and eerie separatist checkpoints. But where it leads is harder still.
updated 12:31 PM EDT, Thu July 31, 2014
Future imports, exports between the EU and Russia are now banned -- but existing contracts continue.
updated 11:10 AM EDT, Wed July 30, 2014
More Russian aggression in Ukraine. More U.S. and European sanctions imposed on Moscow.
updated 8:01 PM EDT, Wed July 30, 2014
Deadly violence, ongoing tensions and the deliberate downing of a passenger airplane. Why should Americans worry?
updated 12:42 PM EDT, Fri July 18, 2014
The shooting down of MH17 may finally alert Washington and Europe to the danger of the conflict in Ukraine.
updated 7:04 PM EDT, Thu July 24, 2014
The United States and its allies are angrier at Russia now over Ukraine, but will they do anything more about it?
The U.S. releases satellite images it says shows the Russian military has fired across its border with Ukraine.
updated 11:40 AM EDT, Sun July 20, 2014
Some contend that larger weapons have come into Ukraine from Russia.
updated 4:37 PM EDT, Fri August 1, 2014
Information about Ukraine, the second-largest European country in area after Russia.
updated 1:25 PM EDT, Sun July 27, 2014
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin on securing the MH17 crash site and negotiating with the separatists.
Learn more about the victims, ongoing investigation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
updated 5:25 AM EDT, Wed July 23, 2014
The downing Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 put the pro-Russia rebels operating in Ukraine's eastern region center stage.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT