Warming climate could mean bigger blizzards, less snow
By Matt Smith and Brandon Miller, CNN
updated 7:31 PM EST, Tue February 26, 2013
Southwest Airlines employees guide a plane into the gate at Midway International Airport in Chicago on Tuesday, February 26. Back-to-back storms have hit the Great Plains, which is still digging out from last week's weather. Are you experiencing the storm? If it's safe, share your photos.
City worker Thuan Tran and police officer Christina Batalia help dig out stranded motorist Gary Cook after the area was hit by a snowstorm on February 26 in Overland Park, Kansas.
Wet snow hangs on branches on February 26 in Merriam, Kansas.
Milk shelves are nearly empty at a Kansas City, Missouri, grocery store on February 26, after a snowstorm batters the area again.
Heavy snow covers street signs in Kansas City, Missouri, on February 26.
Tree branches are covered in snow on February 26 in Kansas City, Missouri.
Motorists head home on U.S. 69 on Monday, February 25, in Overland Park, Kansas, during the snowstorm.
About 5 feet of snow piles up February 25 outside CNN iReporter Matthew West's back porch in Canyon Texas, covering up his son's tricycle.
Alan Daniels loads salt trucks at the Overland, Kansas, Park Public Works Department on February 25.
The "Keeper of the Plains" statue is blanketed with snow in Wichita, Kansas, on February 25.
A resident shovels snow as the wind cuts down on visibility during a winter storm in Denver on Sunday, February 24.
Bicycles gather snow during a storm in Denver on February 24.
Twelve to 14 inches of snow fell in northeastern Kansas on Thursday, February 21. However, on Friday, February 22, the sun was out, and this street had been cleared, but many were not. Neighbors worked to clear their driveways while the kids enjoyed playing the deepest snow many of them had ever experienced.
Jackie Arrandondo, 19, is covered with morning snow from head to toe as she waits for a city bus Friday, in Minneapolis. Gusty winds and iced-over roadways made for treacherous Midwest travel Friday as a major winter storm headed east over the Great Lakes. Two deaths have been linked to the storm, including one in a fatal traffic accident in Minnesota.
Shawn Noble skis to work after a winter storm left more than 6 inches of snow on February 22 in Iowa City, Iowa.
Tow truck driver Tyson House helps trucker Gary Wheeler of Kansas City on Friday, February 22, in Greensburg, Kansas, after his truck slid off the road. The huge snowstorm was moving across the Plains on Thursday.
A worker uses a snowblower to clear a path on February 22 in Greensburg, Kansas.
Tow truck drivers aid a semi on February 22 in Greensburg, Kansas.
A car is stranded in the snow on Highway 135 outside Wichita, Kansas, on Thursday, February 21.
Vehicles drive in single file down Highway 135 outside Wichita on Thursday.
Mark Russell, right, vice president of rules and competition for the PGA Tour, talks with Thorbjorn Olesen of Denmark as snow and rain suspend play during the first round of the World Golf Championships in Marana, Arizona, on Wednesday, February 20.
Snow covers this cactus during the first round of the World Golf Championships at the Golf Club at Dove Mountain in Marana, Arizona, on February 20.
Pedestrians make their way to work through the snow in downtown Wichita, Kansas, on Wednesday, February 20.
Police take care of an accident in Wichita on Wednesday.
Golf fans seek shelter from the snow Wednesday after the first round of the Accenture Match Play Championship at Dove Mountain in Marana, Arizona. The tournament was suspended due to the weather.
Snow covers the driving range at Dove Mountain on Wednesday.
Snow covers the clubhouse behind the 18th green during the first round of the tournament at Dove Mountain on Wednesday.
Snow collects around golf balls on the practice putting green on Wednesday.
Golf spectators look for cover as snow comes down.
David Viana of the Real Salt Lake soccer team heads the ball against the New England Revolution during the snowfall on Wednesday in Tucson, Arizona.
Brad Evans of the Seattle Sounders dribbles the ball while playing the New York Red Bulls in Tucson on Wednesday.
Snow blankets Yucca Valley, California, an area that rarely sees snow, on Wednesday.
The sun shines on the fresh snow in Yucca Valley on Wednesday.
Photos: Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
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Snowstorm hits the Plains
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Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
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Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
Snowstorm hits the Plains
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STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- A warming climate will mean worse storms but less snow overall, scientists say
- Warmer air holds more water, "loading the dice" toward bigger storms, one says
- Back-to-back blizzards have broken snow records in Kansas and Texas
(CNN) -- OK, go ahead and get the "Where's my global warming?" jokes out of your system. With the U.S. Midwest trudging through its second blizzard in a week, we understand.
But while it may seem contradictory at first, scientists say bigger blizzards fit the pattern they expect to see from a changing climate.
The immediate meteorological cause of the back-to-back snowstorms is a colder-than-normal mass of air that's been hovering over the central United States, combined with an amped-up jet stream that's been dipping south from Canada. That makes conditions ripe for major snowstorms after a warmer-than-normal January for most of the Lower 48.
"Once you get into a pattern that sets up these storms, they can repeat themselves," National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini told CNN.
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The 21 inches that fell on Wichita, Kansas, in February just broke a monthly snowfall record set in 1913. Amarillo, Texas, saw 19 inches of snow on Monday alone, a total greater than its annual average and smashing a daily record of 12 inches that had stood since 1893.
As researchers are quick to point out, weather is different than climate. Weather is what happens today, while climate involves trends in temperature and precipitation over decades. But global average temperatures are up about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 degrees Celsius) since the 1880s, according to NASA, and because warmer air holds more moisture, a cold snap is likely to leave more snow on the ground.
"We have to keep in mind that in any given winter, you're going to have some big snowstorms," said Marshall Shepherd, a research meteorologist at the University of Georgia. "But we're loading the dice or stacking the deck toward more intense blizzards."
While the idea of long-term climate change is a controversial notion politically, it's accepted as fact by most researchers. The warming trend is expected to continue if heat-trapping carbon dioxide -- a byproduct of fossil fuels -- continues to build up in the atmosphere.
Sarah Kapnick, who studies snowfall patterns and climate at Princeton University, said the overall trend for snowfall in the western United States is down. Kapnick said her recent research points to more snow at high elevations and the Arctic, but the rest of the country would see less.
"The seasonal cycle is changing, and less of it accumulating," Kapnick said.
Shepherd said scientists can't attribute any one storm to the effects of climate change, any more than they can point to a single home run as evidence that a baseball player has been using steroids. "But when we get blizzards, they'll be stronger," he said.
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