With just a few days left before awards season officially comes to a close, the Oscars race is closer than ever. We put the top categories to the test to determine who should be honored with an Academy Award, versus the films that will walk away with a statue this Sunday. Want to weigh in yourself? Cast your own vote in CNN's Oscar ballot.
Editor's note: John Avlon is a CNN contributor and senior political columnist for Newsweek and The Daily Beast. He is co-editor of the book "Deadline Artists: America's Greatest Newspaper Columns." He is a regular contributor to "Erin Burnett OutFront" and is a member of the OutFront Political Strike Team. For more political analysis, tune in to "Erin Burnett OutFront" at 7 ET weeknights.He won the National Society of Newspaper Columnists' award for best online column in 2012.
(CNN) -- With a crop of political movies in the Oscar running, this weekend Hollywood is looking more like Poliwood. Best Picture contenders such as "Argo," "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Lincoln" have managed to pay off at the box office even as they brought politics and history to the big screen -- proof that we'll take smart over stupid as long as we're entertained while educated.
But what's really notable about these films is that for the most part they avoid hagiography. They dare to show complexity. This doesn't mean indulging in moral relativism; evil exists and these films acknowledge it. But the human dimension is kept intact rather, with characters not divided into simply angels versus devils. The real tradeoffs behind difficult decisions are acknowledged, consistent with the idea that the truth is never pure and rarely simple.
In "Argo," the CIA agents are far from James Bond clones. Suited up in 1970s regalia, Ben Affleck's disheveled character is separated from his wife and child. He quaffs wine and chows down on McDonald's, and is outclassed by Hollywood producers cooperating in the creation of the fake film that provides cover for an escape of embassy personnel from Iran.
The film doesn't blink at the brutal mob mentality of revolutionary Islamist radicals, but it also takes time to explain the vicious cycle that began when the CIA helped topple and democratically elected Mohammed Mossaddegh and replaced him with the shah. The Carter White House is depicted as well-intentioned and principled but not exactly a crackerjack All-Star Team.
Likewise, the Navy SEALs who kill Osama bin Laden in "Zero Dark Thirty" are disciplined in their work but not portrayed as anything resembling perfect in their personal lives. The lead CIA agent, Maya, played by Jessica Chastain, is a mess outside the narrow confines of her work. She is obsessive, bullying and intolerant but sharply intelligent. Her initial moral qualms over torture are quickly replaced by a cold determination to do whatever it takes.
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But perhaps the best example of this human realism this Oscar season is Daniel Day-Lewis' definitive film portrayal of President Abraham Lincoln. He is not portrayed as a stovepipe-hat-wearing saint, but a prairie politician -- a flawed man and a wounded giant.
He wrestles with depression, slaps his eldest son and yells at his wife when she overindulges in histrionics over the death of a younger son. Lewis' Lincoln buoys his darker moods by telling meandering jokes that amuse him more than the listeners, infuriating his secretary of war, Edwin Stanton, in the process. He is thought to be a fool by some and a despot by others. But above all, he is skilled in the art of power and strategic in its deployment.
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Lincoln stretches the limits of law and ethics to cobble together enough votes for the passage of the 13th Amendment. Congressmen are bribed and cajoled with the promise of lucrative new jobs. Threats are made and some principles abandoned in the cause of building a broader coalition. Lincoln lies to Congress about the status of secret peace talks with the Confederacy. He alone, at times, keeps in mind the larger goal of bending history toward justice, against the cruel backdrop of escalating body counts.
The best metaphor for the movie's more realistic viewpoint is Lincoln's voice. It has often been described by biographers as high-pitched with a Kentucky accent, and this was difficult to reconcile with the grave baritone we associate with the man reading the Gettysburg Address. But Daniel Day-Lewis did the research like Alan Lomax on a field recording and he came back with a voice that matches the biographical descriptions -- hard to imagine but instantly recognizable when finally heard. This Lincoln takes the risk of authenticity and takes the man off his pedestal, becoming somehow bigger for it.
And that's a healthy trend for movies overall.
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Lastly, one the Academy missed: In an unjustly Oscar-ignored presidential portrayal, Bill Murray channeled FDR in "Hyde Park on Hudson," showing the four-term president as a charming man in need. Buoyant amid stormy weather, Murray's FDR is comfortable with maintaining multiple layers of deceit with those closest to him. This is capped off by intermingling romantic affairs that occasionally explode out into the open. It's a reminder that great and good can be very different qualities, doled out in different amounts at different times, sometimes within the same person.
The lesson? You don't have to be perfect to be a hero. And imperfections can actually add to heroism by virtue of authenticity.
Hollywood's new take on politics and history invigorates because it does not hero-worship or whitewash. By risking realism, exposing flaws as well as moments of greatness, the inspiration of these characters becomes more accessible to us all.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Avlon.
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What a difference a few awards shows make! In the weeks since the Golden Globes, the Oscar outlook has shifted dramatically. The tight competition between "Lincoln" and "Zero Dark Thirty" has made way for "Argo" to come from behind as the movie most likely to win Best Picture (even if Ben Affleck was snubbed with no nomination for himself as Best Director). "The thing about this movie, we're solving a really horrible problem creatively using our imagination instead of bullets," said co-star Tate Donovan (who plays the leader of the "houseguests").
That is opposed to "Zero Dark Thirty," under fire for its depiction of torture. "Argo," a lesser-known CIA story, has had less scrutiny for its version of the truth and benefits from a pro-Hollywood stance. Still, the much more gripping "Zero Dark Thirty" is the superior exercise and should win. Other contenders include "Amour," "Beasts of the Southern Wild," "Django Unchained," "Les Miserables," "Life of Pi" and "Silver Linings Playbook."
When the Best Director category nominations were announced, it was all about the snubs: No Ben Affleck! No Kathryn Bigelow! No Tom Hooper! No Quentin Tarantino! Instead, we got Michael Haneke for "Amour," first-time director Benh Zeitlin for "Beasts of the Southern Wild," Ang Lee for "Life of Pi," Steven Spielberg for "Lincoln" and David O. Russell for "Silver Linings Playbook." Now that the tide has turned in favor of "Argo" for Best Picture, this is Steven Spielberg's category to lose ...
... perhaps to "Silver Linings Playbook," the first film in 31 years to be nominated in all four acting categories (the last one was "Reds" in 1981). That achievement should be recognized by honoring its director and his work with his cast. "The movie's your child, all the actors are your children, and you want to stay invested for them," Russell said. "All the rest ultimately doesn't matter."
Best Original Screenplay is a tough category to predict this year. Quentin Tarantino's "Django Unchained" is a strong contender, given his Golden Globe trophy, but that was an upset. This might be the category that allows "Zero Dark Thirty" to be honored in lieu of Best Picture, in recognition of Mark Boal's extensive original reporting for the film (even if what he dug up remains in dispute regarding the use of torture). "If anyone's asking, we stand by the film," Boal said. "The film allows us to look back at the past in a way that gives us a clear-sighted appraisal of the future." In his favor: Boal won Sunday night at the Writers Guild Awards.
Adapting a screenplay is not necessarily easier than writing something new, especially when it comes to making a taut thriller out of a memoir (Chris Terrio's "Argo"), a fantasy from a play (Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar's "Beasts of the Southern Wild," from Alibar's earlier work), a fable from a work of magical realism (David Magee's "Life of Pi," from Yann Martel's novel), a procedural from a dense history (Tony Kushner's "Lincoln," from Doris Kearns Goodwin's biography) and a dramedy from a first-person novel (David O. Russell's "Silver Linings Playbook," from Matthew Quick's book). Kushner is the likely winner, with Russell close behind.
But it would be nice if the modest "Beasts" could take it home. "I truthfully had no expectation for this movie other than to make it, and even then, I wasn't sure even that would happen," Alibar said. "I'm still high on my movie getting made, and I'm not expecting anything."
Daniel Day-Lewis could make history with his third Best Actor Oscar win with "Lincoln," and the other actors in his category don't stand a chance of breaking his streak. To think Day-Lewis originally turned down the part a few times! "If you didn't know what a f***ing idiot I was before, you know now," the actor joked at the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, as he had to be convinced to play the 16th president. In any other year, this would be a tight race, considering Bradley Cooper's amazing portrayal of a man battling bipolar disorder in "Silver Linings Playbook," Hugh Jackman's musical performance in "Les Miserables," Joaquin Phoenix's role as an unbalanced veteran in "The Master" and Denzel Washington's alcoholic pilot in "Flight."
If -- and it's a big if -- Day-Lewis doesn't take home Oscar, it should go to Phoenix, who is just as Method and devoted to his craft as the man playing Lincoln. In any other year, he would.
The race for Best Actress seems a foregone conclusion, with Jennifer Lawrence as the favorite to win for "Silver Linings Playbook." "Amour's" Emmanuelle Riva (86 on Oscar night) and "Beasts' " Quvenzhane Wallis (6 when she shot the film) are the oldest and youngest nominees ever in this category, and Riva -- who won at the BAFTAs -- might be the upset. Still, Lawrence will and should win. "My first scene was screaming and crying a million different versions of the same speech," she said. "It was really intense. I've never worked this way before, where the director is shouting at you, 'No, say this!' But there's never a moment where you're dead behind the eyes."
The award for Best Actor in a Supporting Role is much harder to predict. All five nominees are Oscar winners, the first time that's happened in an acting category. And there's no clear-cut favorite: Tommy Lee Jones, who was the former front-runner, won for "Lincoln" at the SAG Awards; Christoph Waltz won for "Django Unchained" at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs; and Philip Seymour Hoffman won for "The Master" at the Critics Choice Awards. Alan Arkin, however, hasn't won anything for "Argo," and neither has Robert De Niro for "Silver Linings Playbook." Yet De Niro, who hasn't had an Oscar nod since "Cape Fear" in 1991, remains a strong possibility.
It's impossible to say who will win, only who should: Waltz. His "Django" bounty hunter, despite being a foreigner, proves more witty and articulate than anyone else in the film -- and the other films.
Anne Hathaway is widely considered a lock for Best Actress in a Supporting Role, even though her competition includes Amy Adams for "The Master," Sally Field for "Lincoln," Helen Hunt for "The Sessions" and Jacki Weaver for "Silver Linings Playbook." Hathaway has been sweeping the Golden Globes, SAG, Critics' Choice and BAFTA Awards, but she's not entirely unbeatable: She did not win the other critics' group awards (which honored Field and Adams instead). And Hathaway is nervous. "I mean, getting up in front of the entire world, trying not to look like a fool?" she said. "Nothing outside the ordinary!"
But wouldn't it be extraordinary if someone who actually had more screen time in her own film could be an upset in this category? Field played a character (Mary Todd Lincoln) who knew that history might regard her as unlikeable. Wouldn't it be something if it turned out 
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