Editor's note: John L. Allen Jr. is CNN's senior Vatican analyst and senior correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter.
(CNN) -- Suffice it to say that of all possible storylines to emerge, heading into the election of a new pope, sensational charges of a shadowy "gay lobby" (possibly linked to blackmail), whose occult influence may have been behind the resignation of Benedict XVI, would be right at the bottom of the Vatican's wish list.
Proof of the Vatican's irritation came with a blistering statement Saturday complaining of "unverified, unverifiable or completely false news stories," even suggesting the media is trying to influence the papal election.
Two basic questions have to be asked about all this. First, is there really a secret dossier about a network of people inside the Vatican who are linked by their sexual orientation, as Italian newspaper reports have alleged? Second, is this really why Benedict XVI quit?
The best answers, respectively, are "maybe" and "probably not."
It's a matter of record that at the peak of last year's massive Vatican leaks crisis, Benedict XVI created a commission of three cardinals to investigate the leaks. They submitted an eyes-only report to the pope in mid-December, which has not been made public.
It's impossible to confirm whether that report looked into the possibility that people protecting secrets about their sex lives were involved with the leaks, but frankly, it would be surprising if it didn't.
There are certainly compelling reasons to consider the hypothesis. In 2007, a Vatican official was caught by an Italian TV network on hidden camera arranging a date through a gay-oriented chat room, and then taking the young man back to his Vatican apartment. In 2010, a papal ceremonial officer was caught on a wiretap arranging liaisons through a Nigerian member of a Vatican choir. Both episodes played out in full public view, and gave the Vatican a black eye.
Pope Benedict XVI waves in St. Peter's Square in the Vatican in December 2012. Benedict, 85, announced on Monday, February 11, that he will resign at the end of February "because of advanced age." The last pope to resign was Gregory XII in 1415.
Photos: Pope Benedict XVI
In that context, it would be a little odd if the cardinals didn't at least consider the possibility that insiders leading a double life might be vulnerable to pressure to betray the pope's confidence. That would apply not just to sex, but also potential conflicts of other sorts too, such as financial interests.
Vatican officials have said Benedict may authorize giving the report to the 116 cardinals who will elect his successor, so they can factor it into their deliberations. The most immediate fallout is that the affair is likely to strengthen the conviction among many cardinals that the next pope has to lead a serious house-cleaning inside the Vatican's bureaucracy.
It seems a stretch, however, to suggest this is the real reason Benedict is leaving. For the most part, one should probably take the pope at his word, that old age and fatigue are the motives for his decision.
That said, it's hard not to suspect that the meltdowns and controversies that have dogged Benedict XVI for the last eight years are in the background of why he's so tired. In 2009, at the height of another frenzy surrounding the lifting of the excommunication of a Holocaust-denying traditionalist bishop, Benedict dispatched a plaintive letter to the bishops of the world, voicing hurt for the way he'd been attacked and apologizing for the Vatican's mishandling of the situation.
Even if Benedict didn't resign because of any specific crisis, including this latest one, such anguish must have taken its toll. Benedict is a teaching pope, a man who prefers the life of the mind to the nuts and bolts of government, yet an enormous share of his time and energy has been consumed trying to put out internal fires.
It's hard to know why Benedict XVI is stepping off the stage, but I doubt it is because of a "gay lobby."
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John L. Allen Jr.
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Joseph Ratzinger, who became the 265th pope in 2005, poses for a photo while a German air force assistant in 1943.
Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, right, poses for a picture in Vatican City in June 1977 with fellow cardinals, from left, Cardinal Gappi, Cardinal Tomazek, Cardinal Gantin and Cardinal Benelli. Ratzinger was named cardinal-priest of Santa Maria Consolatrice al Tiburtino by Pope Paul VI in June 1977.
Ratzinger, who was serving as cardinal-priest of Santa Maria Consolatrice al Tiburtino, visits Madrid in 1989.
Ratzinger fills in for Pope John Paul II during the Easter Vigil service in Saint Peter's Basilica in March 2005.
Newly elected as pope, Benedict XVI gestures to the crowd in St. Peter's Square in Vatican City on April 19, 2005.
Benedict meets Prince Albert II of Monaco at the pope's private library in Vatican City in December 2005.
Benedict kisses the altar before addressing the crowds at Jasna Gora Monastery in Czestochowa, Poland, in May 2006.
Benedict waves from under an umbrella as he arrives to lead his weekly general audience in Saint Peter's Square at the Vatican in October 2007.
Benedict speaks at the United Nations General Assembly in New York in April 2008.
Benedict celebrates a Mass at the end of a synod of Catholic bishops in October 2008 at St. Peter's Basilica at the Vatican.
Benedict attends a screening of a movie about his predecessor, Pope John Paul II, on October 16, 2008, in Vatican City during celebrations of the 30th anniversary of John Paul's election as pontiff.
Benedict kneels as he prays in front of Pope John XXIII's tomb in St. Peter's Basilica at the Vatican on October 28, 2008, to commemorate the 50th anniversary of John's election to the papacy.
Benedict talks with bishops in Saint Peter's Square at the Vatican after his weekly general address in November 2009.
Benedict blesses pilgrims as he arrives in St. Peter's Square in his popemobile in March 2010 to meet with young people from Rome and the Lazio region in preparation for World Youth Day.
The pope salutes from his popemobile in St. Peter's Square in March 2010.
Benedict prepares to celebrate Mass at San Giovanni della Croce parish in Rome in March 2010.
Benedict prays on Good Friday in April 2010 at the Roman Colosseum.
Benedict celebrates an open-air Mass in the Terreiro do Paco in Lisbon, Portugal, in May 2010.
Benedict prepares to celebrate a Mass for 70,000 people in September 2011 in Berlin.
Benedict waves to the crowd gathered at the Colosseum in Rome during the Way of the Cross procession on Good Friday in April 2012.
A gust of wind blows Benedict's collar into his face in September 2012 during his weekly address in Saint Peter's Square.
Benedict speaks with Nikolaus Schneider, praeses of the Evangelical Church in the Rhineland, before a Mass at the Augustinian monastery in Erfurt, Germany, in September 2011.
Benedict waves to pilgrims as he arrives at St. Peter's Square for his weekly address in October 2012.
Benedict looks at a chess game with Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara during a private audience in November 2012 at the Vatican.
Benedict arrives to lead the Vesper prayer with members of Rome's universities in December 2012 at St. Peter's Basilica.
Benedict clicks on a tablet to send his first tweet from his account @pontifex at the Vatican in December 2012.
Benedict celebrates Mass during a visit to San Patrizio al Colle Prenestino parish on the outskirts of Rome in December 2012.
Benedict blesses members of the ecumenical Christian community of Taize, a group based in Taize, France, in St. Peter's Square in December 2012.
Benedict, accompanied by Grand Master Matthew Festing of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, right, shakes hands with a woman after the Mass in St. Peter's Basilica to mark the 900th anniversary of the Order of the Knights of Malta on February 9, 2013, at the Vatican.
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