(CNN) -- As the crisis in Syria intensifies and Bashar al-Assad's hold on power starts to unravel, concerns are mounting over what may come next for the beleaguered nation.
Some foresee bloody sectarian strife or a descent into militia rule, while others fear what might become of its chemical weapons stockpile.
Not all observers agree it's the beginning of the endgame for al-Assad, but all are sure there's no clear road map for what lies ahead.
The prospects for al-Assad are "very grim," said Shashank Joshi, an associate fellow at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute think tank and a doctoral student at Harvard University.
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"There's no going back," he said. "He's not far from collapse, because what's occurred through defection or assassination is that the political part of his regime has been hollowed out."
By contrast Dr. Dan Plesch, director of the Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, considers it too soon to write al-Assad out of the picture.
But in a scenario where he is pushed out -- bringing to an end four decades of rule by him and his father before him -- the Syrian military will likely play a major role in what happens next, Plesch said.
Recent defections of high-level officers -- notably regime insider Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlas -- on top of the desertion of many rank and file personnel, signal an erosion of the army's coherence in the face of the rebellion.
Many of those at the top are determined to fight on to the end because they fear the personal consequences for them if they lose, analysts say.
In what some saw as a turning point after more than 16 months of violence, al-Assad lost four top aides following an explosion in Damascus last week, as rebel forces attacked the capital and Syria's commercial hub, Aleppo.
So far, al-Assad has shown no signs of quitting. But what's not yet clear is how much stomach he has for a continued bloody conflict, and whether he might be more inclined to negotiate a transition than some of his immediate entourage, Plesch said.
If al-Assad's ouster were the result of a "palace coup," involving negotiation between some insiders and the insurgency, slightly more continuity would ensue, said Joshi. However, such a transition is likely to be unstable because many rebels would refuse to accept it and would fight on.
He believes it more likely that the regime collapses entirely and the Syrian National Council -- an opposition coalition whose leadership resides outside of Syria -- stakes a claim to lead the transition as part of a coalition also involving opposition figures within Syria and Kurdish and liberal representatives.
However, unlike Libya, where the National Transitional Council presented a fairly unified voice as Gadhafi's regime crumbled, the opposition in Syria remains more fragmented and no credible transitional leader has yet come to the fore, Joshi said.
Plesch agrees that while the Syrian National Council "aspires to be the linchpin in the transition," questions remain over how effective it could be and what support it commands among rebels on the ground.
Ausama Monajed, who advised a previous president of the Syrian National Council, told CNN in March that his group has a plan for a post-Assad era, including the formation of a transitional unity government and a body to draw up a new constitution and election laws, leading eventually to parliamentary and presidential elections.
Rebel fighters load an anti-aircraft machine gun on an armored vehicle in Atareb, east of Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, on Tuesday, July 31. Unrest spread across other volatile regions of the country as forces of President Bashar al-Assad's regime shelled targets and launched raids in and around Damascus, Homs, Daraa and Deir Ezzor.
Photos: Showdown in Syria
At the time, observers responded with skepticism. "There's a lack of coordination amongst the insiders, and they represent the outsiders, not the insiders," said former U.S. ambassador to Syria Edward Djerejian. "It's not a coherent opposition leadership."
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Another scenario sees Syria descend into a chaotic and bloody sectarian conflict, pitting Syria's majority Sunni Muslims against the ruling Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam, and embroiling its Christian, Druze and other minority groups too. Such a conflict risks destabilizing the wider region.
The recent defection of two key Sunni figures, Tlas and Syria's ambassador to Iraq, Nawaf Fares, means all al-Assad has left is a narrow Alawite bloc with shrinking public support, Joshi said.
If the regime collapses, the Alawites could retreat to strongholds in the northwest of the country around Latakia and attempt to reconstitute a state there, he said. Syria's Kurds could also seek greater autonomy, a move which would worry Turkey, which has a troubled relationship with its own Kurdish population.
However, Rime Allaf, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank, argues against making too much of Syria's sectarian tensions.
The regime "has been using the sectarian line, but the opposition and the rebels have increasingly repeated that they do not view it in those terms," she said. "So it's not the Alawites who are crumbling, it's a regime. ... It means many people within that regime, whatever religious denomination they are, they don't necessarily agree with the way things are happening."
Sectarianism aside, the large number of militia groups that have taken up arms across Syria will present a "significant challenge" to the country's future stability whoever ends up in power, Joshi said.
They range from the pro-government Shabiha militia groups, blamed by opposition activists for many of the more brutal attacks on civilians, to rebel hardline Islamist groups and local networks that have formed to protect their villages.
At the same time, the rebel Free Syrian Army, largely composed of soldiers who defected from the al-Assad regime, is more a loose organization of armed groups than a coherent military body, said Joshi.
He predicts that whatever Syrian government results from the conflict will not be in charge of its whole territory, a problem made worse by the porous nature of the country's borders. If the Syrian National Council ultimately does take charge, it may struggle to contain the worst excesses of the militia groups, he said.
The International Committee of the Red Cross said this month that it considers the conflict a "non-international armed conflict" -- or a civil war -- but some analysts say international forces are in fact involved.
Opposition forces are being "quite well-armed and probably trained by external clandestine forces from the Gulf states and probably from Turkey," Plesch said. Questions should also be asked about some European and North American involvement, he added.
At the same time, Syria's neighbors, which include Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon, all have a stake in how the conflict plays out and exert varying degrees of influence within Syria.
Part of the international community's unease stems from Syria's position as a regional powerhouse. "Syria really is the epicenter of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and the international community's confrontation with Iran," said Plesch.
Another concern to those watching from the wings is Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons.
Syria's foreign ministry said Monday that the country has chemical weapons that it would be willing to use against foreign attackers, although it sought to roll back the message Tuesday.
Its remarks led to strong warnings from U.S. officials, including President Barack Obama, who said such a move would be a "tragic mistake."
Obama administration officials are now holding regular high-level meetings to discuss the ongoing situation in Syria and begin thinking about U.S. priorities in a post-Assad era, a senior U.S. official told CNN Monday. The Obama administration has also stepped up its discussions with Israel, Jordan and Turkey about Syria's chemical weapons arsenal
The al-Assad regime "probably has the largest and most advanced chemical warfare program in the Arab world," according to Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow and director of the military and security studies program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
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But there is good reason to be skeptical that this arsenal would ever be used, Joshi said. Syrian commanders would not want to be held individually responsible with no regime to protect them, he said. Commanders are also well aware that the risk of such weapons getting into the hands of allies such as Hezbollah would likely induce external intervention, particularly from Israel.
For some observers, the international community's increasing focus on Syria's weapons stockpile also conjures unwelcome echoes of the run-up to the Iraq war.
Syrian allies China and Russia, who last week blocked another United Nations Security Council resolution for new sanctions if Syrian government forces don't stop attacks against civilians, are opposed to the kind of foreign intervention seen in Iraq as well as in Libya last year.
Moscow indicated Tuesday that Damascus should refrain from making use of chemical weapons in line with its ratification of Geneva protocols. "Russia's policy is based on the understanding that Syrian authorities will continue to strictly follow their international obligations," the foreign ministry said.
As for al-Assad, if he is forced from power, his personal fate will likely depend on whether he remains in Syria, and in whose hands.
A new regime might want to prosecute him for alleged war crimes or it might decide it would be more advantageous to allow him to go into exile, said Plesch.
Al-Assad's options for exile appear limited, with much of the world outraged by the thousands of civilian deaths resulting from his regime's crackdown on what it calls "armed terrorists." Plesch speculates that a country that is "not quite Russia," such as Moldova or South Ossetia, could offer a haven.
Alternatively, al-Assad could hang on to power for months yet, if regime forces and the Free Syrian Army continue to battle without a decisive victory on either side and the international community declines to step in.
So long as Russia and China continue to block tougher U.N. Security Council action on Syria, foreign intervention seems unlikely.
And although U.S. officicals have led calls for an end to the conflict, Plesch suggests that a prolonged conflict in Syria might not be the "worst option" from an Israeli or American militarist point of view, because neutralizing Syria would have the effect of isolating Hezbollah, and to a degree Hamas, from Iran, an ally of Damascus.
"If you are a Western security planner who thinks it's highly likely that there has to be a military confrontation with Iran sooner or later, then keeping Syria off the board is probably one of the things that's quite desirable to do," he said.
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CNN's Holly Yan, Barbara Starr and Pam Benson contributed to this report.
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Syrian boys run near a building hit by bullets and fire in Atareb.
A member of the Free Syrian Army fires at forces loyal to President Bashar Al-Assad in a district of Aleppo called Salah Edinne on Tuesday.
A member of the Free Syrian Army carries an injured civilian to safety in Aleppo's district of Salah Edinne on Tuesday.
Members of the Free Syrian Army learn that a tank belonging to forces loyal to President Bashar Al-Assad is heading to the area.
A Syrian boy carries bags of bread as people wait outside a bakery near Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo.
A photo released by Syrian Arab News Agency depicts damaged buildings in Homs on Monday, July 30.
A Free Syrian Army fighter takes position Sunday, July 29, in Aleppo as people flee shelling. Intense clashes have been under way for more than a week between the regime and rebels in Aleppo, Syria's commercial and cultural center.
Parts of Syria's largest city saw the fiercest clashes yet in the country's 16-month crisis on Saturday, July 28. About 200,000 people have fled fighting in Aleppo and surrounding areas in the past two days, a U.N. official says.
Fighting leaves vehicles damaged Saturday in the southwestern city of Daraa.
Syrians carry the body of a man allegedly killed in the bombardment of Sukari, southwest of Aleppo, by Syrian regime forces on July 27.
Destruction appears widespread in Homs on Friday, July 27, in a handout photo from the Syrian opposition Shaam News Network.
A Syrian opposition fighter takes aim during clashes with forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on Wednesday, July 25.
Family and friends mourn over the body of Usame Mircan, who they say was killed by a Syrian government sniper in Aleppo on Wednesday.
Usame Mircan's mother grieves after he was killed during fighting in Aleppo.
The bodies of men killed during clashes between Syrian rebel fighters and goverment forces lie on the Aleppo street on Thursday, July 26.
Fighters from the Syrian opposition rest at a former primary school in Aleppo on Wednesday.
Residents take cover as fighters from the Syrian opposition clash with forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on Wednesday.
Syrian rebels guard a checkpoint in Aleppo on Wednesday.
A damaged portrait of President Bashar al-Assad sits among piles of debris at a checkpoint manned by Syrian rebels in Aleppo on Wednesday.
Syrian rebels drive through Selehattin near Aleppo during clashes with government forces on Monday, July 23.
A Syrian rebel runs through the streets of Selehattin during an attack on a municipal building. The rebel Free Syrian Army says it is attempting to "liberate" several districts of Aleppo.
Syrian rebels work to find snipers during clashes Monday between the opposition and government forces in Selehattin.
Syrian rebels make their way down a street Monday in Selehattin near Aleppo. If they gain control of Aleppo, it would mark a pivotal point in the Syrian crisis.
Syrian rebels take cover behind sandbags during fighting Monday at the entrance to the city of Selehattin.
On Sunday, July 22, a Syrian refugee looks out from a bus as he arrives at a refugee camp in Turkey opposite the Syrian commercial crossing point Bab al-Hawa.
Syrian refugees flee from a refugee camp nicknamed "Container City" on the Turkish-Syrian border in Kilis province, southern Turkey, on Sunday.
Smoke from artillery shelling rises above Jbatha Al-khashab.
An armed Syrian rebel wearing the jersey of FC Barcelona rests with comrades near the northern city of Aleppo on Sunday. The rebel Free Syrian Army announced the start of the battle to "liberate" Aleppo, Syria's commercial hub and a traditional bastion of President Bashar al-Assad's regime.
In this photo released by the Shaam News Network, a truck burns after shelling in the Erbeen suburb of Damascus on Saturday, July 21.
Refugees fleeing the violence in Syria arrive by bus in Baghdad, Iraq, on Saturday.
Turkish soldiers stand guard at the Cilvegozu border gate in Reyhanly that connects to Syria's Bab al-Hawa post. An estimated 120,000 people have fled Syria to Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan.
Burned-out trucks at the Bab al-Hawa Syrian border post with Turkey on Friday, July 20. Syrian rebels seized control of the post after a fierce battle with Syrian troops, an AFP photographer at the scene reported.
Syrian soldiers celebrate in the al-Midan area in Damascus on Friday. Syrian regime forces routed rebel fighters from the Damascus neighbourhood of Midan, Syrian state television reported, saying troops had "cleaned" the district of "terrorists."
Journalists are shown a dead body on a government tour of the al-Midan area in Damascus on Friday.
Members of Syria security forces rest in the al-Midan area in Damascus on Friday.
Syrian army soldiers hang their national flag in a partially destroyed neighborhood in the al-Midan area in Damascus.
Smoke hangs in the air in a partially destroyed neighborhood in the al-Midan area in Damascus.
Members of Syria security forces pose for photographers in the al-Midan area in Damascus after driving out the rebel fighters.
Syrian residents take goods from a truck that rebels captured at the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey on Friday.
A picture released by the official Syrian Arab News Agency on July 19 shows Syrian General Fahd al-Freij meeting with President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus after his swearing-in ceremony as defense minister.
A man holds up a picture of President Bashar al-Assad at a former police station in Atareb after clashes between Syrian soldiers and Free Syrain Army near Aleppo on Thursday, July 19. Rebels seized control of border crossings with Iraq on Thursday, dealing a new blow to al-Assad, as China and Russia dismayed the West by blocking U.N. action against his regime.
People walk along the street in Atareb amidst damage caused by clashed between Syrian soldiers and the Free Syrian Army.
A Syrian man checks the former police station of Syrian regime after a clash at Atareb on Thursday.
Smoke ascends from from alleged shelling of the Syrian village of Jebata al-Khashab as seen from the hill village of Buqaata in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on Thursday.
The death toll in Syria on July 12 reached 287, making it the bloodiest day in Syria since the uprising began. As it has done consistently, Syrian state television blamed "armed terrorist groups" for the killings.
A Syrian woman sits with her grandson outside a damaged building after attacks in the Syrian village of Treimsa on July 13, 2012. More than 200 people were massacred in the town, according to activists.
A Syrian demonstrator holds an opposition flag during a protest in Damascus on July 2, 2012. There have been increasing reports of violence in the Syrian capital.
Syria's President Bashar al-Assad waves as he arrives for a speech to Syria's parliament in Damascus on June 3, 2012. The embattled president denied that government forces were behind the "outrageous" massacre in Houla.
People gather at a mass burial on May 26, 2012 for victims reportedly killed during an artillery barrage from Syrian forces in Houla. The attack left at least 108 people dead, including nearly 50 children, according to the United Nations.
Members of the Free Syrian Army return to Qusayr on May 12, 2012 after an attack on Syrian regime forces in the village of Nizareer, near the Lebanese border in Homs.
A U.N. observer speaks with Syrian rebels and civilians in the village of Azzara on May 4, 2012, days before the country's parlianemtary polls were held against a backdrop of unrest.
Thousands of Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of President Bashar al-Assad and Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, right, during a rally to show support for their leader on March 29, 2012 in Damascus.
Syrian rebel fighters man a checkpoint leading into the town of Taftanaz in the rebel stronghold province of Idlib on March 20, 2012.
A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his steed in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, 2012, a year after the uprising began. The Free Syrian Army is an armed opposition group made up largely of military defectors.
Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14, 2012. International mediator Kofi Annan called for an immediate halt to the killing of civilians in Syria as he arrived in Turkey for talks on the crisis.
A day after the twin suicide bombings, Syrian mourners pray over the coffins of the 44 people killed during a mass funeral in Damascus.
A Syrian man who was wounded in a suicide attack rests at a hospital in Damascus on December 23, 2011. Suicide bombers hit two security service bases in the Syrian capital, killing dozens of people.
Arab foreign ministers attend an emergency meeting at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo on October 16, 2011, to discuss the crisis in Syria.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton speaks to the media in Washington on August 18, 2011. Clinton said U.S. sanctions on Syrian oil "strike at the heart of the Syrian regime."
Syrian youths wave national flags while army troops drive out of Daraa on May 5, 2011. During a week-long military lockdown of the town, dozens of people were reportedly killed in what activists described as "indiscriminate" shelling on the city.
Syrians in Damascus protest in the street on March 25, 2011, after clashes with government forces in Daraa left several dead.
Supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad rally on April 1 in Istanbul, Turkey, as delegates from dozens of countries gather to push for ways to end the deadly violence in Syria. The United Nations estimates more than 10,000 people have been killed since the beginning of the crisis in March 2011. The conflict is now being labeled a civil war by the International Committee of the Red Cross.
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