The public gets its first glimpse of James Holmes, 24, the suspect in the Colorado theater shooting during his initial court appearance Monday, July 23. With his hair dyed reddish-orange, Holmes, here with public defender Tamara Brady, showed little emotion. He is accused of opening fire in a movie theater Friday, July 20, in Aurora, Colorado, killing 12 people and wounding 58 others. More photos: Mourning the victims of the Colorado theater massacre
Editor's note: Jeffrey Swanson is a professor in psychiatry and behavioral sciences at Duke University's School of Medicine.
(CNN) -- A witness to the horrific shooting rampage in the Colorado movie theater called it "the longest minute" of his life. One can only imagine. But the second longest minute may be the waiting for someone -- the authorities, the pundits, the doctors -- to tell us "why" these killings happened. Police say James Holmes, a 24-year-old graduate student in a neurosciences program, called himself the Joker and rained merciless bullets on strangers watching a Batman movie. Why?
Colorado theater shooting suspect makes first court appearance
Already, the speculations are flooding in. There's a celebrity psychiatrist saying it was a "failure of empathy" likely rooted in the shooter's early life psychological pain. What about asking the accused shooter's parents? "Listen, these folks that are now flying to join their son in Colorado, if you were to ask them, 'What three things are you most sensitive about not telling people, about your family or your son's personal development, or the things that are most painful to relate' -- there's your answer."
Another psychiatrist thinks that people who commit crimes like this are "unfailingly unable to form satisfying sexual attachments, and their masculinity essentially gets replaced with their fascination for destruction."
Big Religion has also weighed in. "The product of pure evil ... a depraved individual taking his free will to the extreme," says the president of Focus on the Family. The head of the Southern Baptists commented that the incident "tells the truth about unbridled human sin."
They should all shut up. Let the police work. Let a competent clinician conduct a private evaluation. Let the professional reporters find out what really happened.
Suspect is a former camp counselor
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The mind of suspect James Holmes
Former colleague shocked that Holmes is theater shooting suspect
On the face of it, a deliberate rampage to kill strangers is the act of a deviant consciousness of some kind. But we don't know whether the accused killer's mind may have been driven by acute symptoms of a psychiatric disorder that impairs thought and perception of reality, by a personality misshaped through a troubled past, or by something else entirely. We simply don't know.
What we do know, based on the best available scientific evidence on the link between violence and mental illness in populations, is that most violence is not caused by a major psychiatric condition like schizophrenia, bipolar disorder or depression. Psychiatric disorder accounts for only about 4% of violent behavior, across the spectrum from minor to serious assaultive acts. And the vast majority of people with serious mental illnesses do not behave violently.
If research on patterns of violence in populations tells us anything, it's that no single thing causes assaultive behavior. Even when serious psychopathology plays a role, it is almost never a sufficient explanation. Other variables -- personal background characteristics and life experience, features of the social environment, substance abuse -- all may interact to make violent acts statistically more likely. That makes it complicated to explain and very difficult to predict actions on an individual level.
Court appearance fuels theories about Colorado shooting suspect
After the fact, rare and appalling acts of violence somehow look predictable, and thus, preventable. It is natural to turn to the experts, but they always come up short. They are notoriously bad at forecasting even garden variety violence, to say nothing of finding the one-in-a-million would-be mass shooter.
When we total up the contributions of all the risk factors with known links to violent behavior, most of it is left unexplained. When we describe the common characteristics of mass shooters, we're left with a profile that fits tens of thousands of troubled young men who would never actually do such a senseless thing.
Is Holmes a psychopath? The true "reasons" that motivated the terrible act of which he is accused may always remain obscure. But what should not be obscure is how easy it is for troubled young men legally to acquire a small arsenal of firearms in the United States. If Holmes hadn't been able to get his hands on the guns police say he used, this would be a different story .
Opinion: Mass murder and powerful firearms
People can disagree about whether 270 million firearms in private hands in the country is too many guns. But they should not disagree that 300,000 people dying from gunshots in the past decade is too many wasted lives. The notion of forbidding assault weapons and large-capacity ammunition magazines -- machines specifically designed to kill multiple people in the twinkling of an eye -- is not about infringing the Second Amendment. It is about common sense and protecting the public. Such weapons were successfully legally banned in the United States from 1994 to 2004; they should be banned again.
Still, dangerous guns per se are not the only problem, and banning them is only part of the solution. We also need better means of identifying dangerous people who should not have access to guns.
Research shows that one of the highest risk times for violence in people who develop a psychotic illness is their first episode -- the period right before they establish any record with the formal mental health care system. Gun laws such as the federal Brady Act that are implemented through background record searches won't find these individuals. But even having a formal record of involuntary psychiatric hospitalization is no guarantee that the relevant information will be available at the point of purchase of a firearm.
Opinion: When will America wake up to gun violence?
In Colorado, only a tiny fraction (about 1%) of people who have gun-disqualifying mental health histories have been reported to the National Instant Check System, where they could be discovered in a routine background check of a prospective gun purchaser. A felony conviction is also supposed to disqualify people from buying a gun, but only 40% of murder suspects have such a previous record of conviction.
The present national moment of grief and soul searching should not become another occasion for oversimplifying the problem of gun violence and laying the blame on any one thing -- "it's the guns" or "it's untreated mental illness" or "it's the information system" or "it's the violent popular culture in society." It may be all of those things. We need to address all of the variables and come up with smart evidence-based policies. Looking inside the killer's head should not be the first place to start.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Jeffrey Swanson.
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Police release the official photo from Holmes' booking after the shooting.
Holmes often had a blank stare during his court appearance Monday, appearing to be in a daze.
Victims and their relatives and journalists watch the proceedings Monday.
Flags fly at half-staff Monday at the Arapahoe County Courthouse in Centennial, Colorado, where the movie theater shooting suspect had his first court appearance. The prosecutor held a press conference outside the courthouse.
Arapahoe County District Attorney Carol Chambers talks to reporters Monday before heading into the courthouse. Chambers said the decision on whether to pursue the death penalty is a long process that involves input from victims and their families.
Family members of the victims arrive at the courthouse Monday for the suspect's first court appearance.
The Century Aurora 16 multiplex in Aurora becomes a place of horror after a gunman opened fire Friday in a crowded theater. At least 17 people remained hospitalized late Sunday, July 22, in the shooting rampage that shocked the nation.
Holmes is accused of opening fire during a midnight screening of the new Batman movie, "The Dark Knight Rises." Holmes purchased four weapons and more than 6,000 rounds of ammunition in recent months, police say.
Police investigate outside the Century 16 multiplex Saturday, July 21, a day after the mass shooting. Authorities have been tight-lipped about a possible motive in the case.
Agents search the suspect's car outside the theater.
Aurora police escort a sand-filled dump truck containing improvised explosive devices removed from Holmes' booby-trapped apartment Saturday. Authorities have said they believe the suspect rigged his place before leaving for the movie theater.
Police break a window at the suspect's apartment Friday in Aurora.
Law enforcement officers speak with Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, center, outside the suspect's apartment Saturday.
Law enforcement officers prepare to disarm the booby-trapped apartment Saturday.
Officials tow cars outside Holmes' apartment Saturday. Police disassembled devices and trip wires set up in the apartment.
Officers prepare to place an explosive device inside the apartment.
Debris flies out a window, right, after law enforcement officers detonate an explosive device inside the apartment Saturday.
People mourn the victims during a vigil behind the theater where a gunman opened fire on moviegoers in Aurora.
A woman grieves during a vigil for victims behind the theater.
A distraught woman receives counseling from Pastor Quincy Shannon, left, in front of Gateway High School in Aurora, where the families of the missing met following the shooting.
Lin Gan of Aurora holds back tears as she speaks to reporters about her experience in the Century 16 theater Friday.
People embrace before a vigil for victims behind the theater where a gunman opened fire on moviegoers.
Investigators work on evidence near the apartment of James Holmes on Friday.
Members of the Aurora Police Department SWAT unit walk near the apartment of James Holmes. Police have Holmes, 24, of North Aurora, in custody.
Television news crews gather in front of the home of Robert and Arlene Holmes, parents of 24-year-old mass shooting suspect James Holmes, in San Diego, California, on Friday.
A popcorn box lies on the ground outside the Century 16 movie theatre.
An NYPD officer keeps watch inside an AMC move theater where the film "The Dark Knight Rises" is playing in Times Square on Friday. NYPD is maintaining security around city movie theaters following the deadly rampage in Aurora, Colorado.
Adariah Legarreta, 4, is comforted by her grandmother Rita Abeyta near the Century 16 Theater in Aurora.
A cyclist and pedestrians pass a theater showing the latest Batman movie in Hollywood, California, on Friday. Warner Brothers said it was "deeply saddened" by Friday's massacre at a Colorado screening of "The Dark Knight Rises."
Obama supporters observe a moment of silence for the victims at a campaign event at Harborside Event Center in Fort Myers, Florida, on Friday.
Jessica Ghawi, an aspiring sportscaster, was one of the victims.
A woman waits for news outside Gateway High School, a few blocks from the scene of the shooting at the Century Aurora 16.
Aurora police chief Daniel J. Oates speaks at a press conference near the Century 16 Theater on Friday.
Agents search the trash container outside the suspect's apartment in Aurora.
A Federal ATF officer carries protective gear onsite at the home of alleged shooting suspect James Holmes.
Obama speaks on the shootings at the event in Fort Myers.
Moviegoers are interviewed at the Century Aurora 16.
Officers gathered at the theater Friday.
Investigators were a common sight at the theater Friday.
Authorities gather at the shooting suspect's apartment building in Aurora. Police broke a second-floor window to look for explosives that the suspect claimed were in the apartment.
Screaming, panicked moviegoers scrambled to escape from the black-clad gunman, who wore a gas mask and randomly shot as he walked up the theater's steps, witnesses said.
University of Colorado Hospital spokeswoman Jacque Montgomery said that all of the wounded had injuries from gunshot wounds, ranging from minor to critical.
A woman sits on top of her car near the crime scene.
Police block access to the Town Center mall after the shooting.
Witnesses told KUSA that the gunman kicked in an emergency exit door and threw a smoke bomb into the darkened theater before opening fire.
What is believed to be the suspect's car is examined after the shooting.
Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney delivers remarks regarding the shooting in an Aurora, Colorado, movie theater on Friday at a campaign event in Bow, New Hampshire.
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