Editor's note: Bill Mears has covered the Supreme Court for CNN for eight years. As the Supreme Court prepares to announce its ruling Thursday, there is much speculation on how the court will rule on the Affordable Care Act, one of the most polarizing pieces of legislation in American history. Truth is, no one outside the court knows. And the court isn't talking.
Washington (CNN) -- I have no inside information on what the Supreme Court will do Thursday on health care -- no one does -- nor any bit of wisdom that has not already been articulated by others, including CNN's fine team of reporters, analysts and contributors.
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But since I have been asked repeatedly to predict the outcome, I will go against conventional wisdom and say the individual mandate -- which requires most Americans to purchase health insurance -- will survive, but in a narrow fashion.
Supporters of the health care legislation celebrate after the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act in a 5-4 ruling Thursday, June 28.
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I believe Chief Justice John Roberts will write the majority opinion upholding the mandate. One of the few stated prerogatives the chief justice commands when he is in the majority is the power to assign the all-important opinion-writing. It is through these opinions the court speaks, from where it derives its power and institutional prestige and authority.
If Roberts takes on this task, he will most likely try to navigate between two polar views on the mandate's constitutionality and the power of Congress to regulate "commerce."
That division was clear from the oral arguments: Roberts and Justice Anthony Kennedy asked tough questions of both sides at argument.
Roberts' reasoning for either upholding or striking down the mandate may not command a majority, meaning at least five justices agree on the outcome but not the constitutional basis on which the decision sits. That split reasoning could sow further uncertainty if and when Congress and the White House were to revise or entirely rework health care reform in the wake of the court's decision.
The tricky task of commanding a five-vote majority and keeping it over the weeklong contentious opinion-writing process may leave Roberts -- or whoever -- thinking small and narrow: upholding the mandate by insisting that health care is unique in the national economy and warning Congress not to go much further when regulating "commerce," i.e., no mandate to buy broccoli or American cars.
Only the justices, their law clerks and a handful of court officials know how this will end. But you can expect a complex, lengthy and perhaps baffling ruling or series of rulings.
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Journalists and supporters and protesters of the health care law gather outside the Supreme Court after the justices ruled in favor of its constitutionality in a narrow decision.
Protesters against the health care law rally outside the Supreme Court before the justices issue their ruling Thursday.
Reporters and camera crews begin waiting early Thursday outside the Supreme Court in anticipation of the court's health care ruling.
President Barack Obama signs the health care legislation in a March 23, 2010, ceremony with Democrats in the White House East Room. The law, which critics dubbed Obamacare, is Obama's signature legislation.
The constitutionality of the 2,409-page act was challenged by 26 states. The most controversial aspect of the law -- the "individual mandate" -- would require individuals not covered by insurance via their employer or the government to purchase and maintain minimal health insurance or pay a penalty.
The Supreme Court held three days of politically charged hearings in March on the Affordable Care Act.
Opponents of Obama's health care legislation protest in front of the Supreme Court on March 28. Critics argued the law's requirement that most Americans have health insurance or pay a fine was an unconstitutional intrusion on individual freedom.
Advocates for universal, government-financed health care carry signs one month before the health care overhaul was signed into law.
Two years after Obama signed the health care legislation, the Supreme Court took up the historic test of whether it's constitutional.
The Rev. Patrick Mahoney leads demonstrators in prayer outside the Supreme Court on Monday, June 25, as they await the court's ruling.
The high court upheld the law's central provision -- a requirement that all people have health insurance. The decision will have an immediate and long-term impact on all Americans, both in how they get medicine and health care.
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