Thousands of Egyptians gather in Tahrir Square after Mohamed Morsi is declared the nation's first democratically elected president on Sunday, June 24. In a nationally televised speech, the longtime member of the Muslim Brotherhood promised to represent all Egyptians.
(CNN) -- The message sent by the military council that rules Egypt was simple: "Don't mess with Egypt's armed forces." The message received by the activists who flooded Tahrir Square 18 months ago: "Egypt's revolution, which began with a bang, is ending with a whimper."
With several decrees, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces -- a body of 20 generals - moved to neuter civilian authority and give itself unprecedented powers. It got some help from the Supreme Constitutional Court. The timing was hardly coincidental. The candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood was running strongly in the final round of the presidential election against a former Egyptian Air Force general. [Read more about the candidates]
What many observers are calling a "constitutional coup" has serious implications not only for the prospect of democracy in Egypt, but also for the future of the Arab world and for the close relationship between Washington and Cairo.
Conflicting reports about whether Mubarak has died
The drama began Thursday, when the Court ruled to expel one-third of the parliament entrusted with drafting a new constitution. The court held that the entire parliament, in which the Muslim Brotherhood and allies have a majority, had to be disbanded.
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The court's ruling was "absurd, destructive and essentially voids Egypt's last year of politics of meaning," Marc Lynch wrote in Foreign Policy. The director of the Institute for Middle East Studies said the country was going through the "stupidest transition in history."
"With Egypt looking ahead to no parliament, no constitution and a deeply divisive new president, it's fair to say the experiment in military-led transition has come to its disappointing end," Lynch wrote.
While Egypt dealt with upheaval, its justice ministry (part of the government appointed by the ruling military council) extended the powers of military police and intelligence agents, allowing them to arrest civilians for a wide range of offenses, including protesting.
Late Sunday, Egyptians had still gone ahead and voted in the presidential election.
The United States Embassy in Cairo tweeted Monday: "We congratulate Egypt on this presidential race. It's a historic event 4 democracy in Egypt."
Hours later, the view from the U.S. State Department seemed different.
"We are particularly concerned by decisions that appear to prolong the military's hold on power," said spokeswoman Victoria Nuland.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Council announced that an appointed assembly would draft the constitution, replacing the assembly chosen by the elected parliament. The Supreme Council also announced it would "decide all matters related to military affairs," including the country's defense budget. There would be no civilian oversight, they said.
Egyptians already appeared to be losing faith in politics, with a low turnout in voting between the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, Mohammed al-Morsi, and Ahmed Shafik, who was Mubarak's last prime minister.
Now, whoever wins could discover the office of the president has much lesser authority than it did before.
Nobel Laureate Mohamed ElBaradei, himself once a presidential contender, tweeted: "Electing president in the absence of constitution and parliament is electing an 'emperor' with more powers than deposed dictator. A travesty."
ElBaradei was once considered a sell-out by disappointed leaderless revolutionaries for not participating in this year's presidential race.
Whatever their ultimate goal, Egypt's traditional institutions are reasserting themselves in the face of an unpredictable political landscape. The Supreme Constitutional Court is afraid the Muslim Brotherhood plans to reform the judicial system, said Steve Cook, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Nathan Brown, a political science professor at George Washington University, agrees.
"The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the Court have a similar outlook, regarding themselves as guardians of the Egyptian state -- with responsibilities above politics," he said.
"Both felt threatened by the prospect of a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated system. The Egyptian military has now become a state within a state, with oversight of the political system and the constitutional process," Brown said.
All four Egyptian presidents over the past 60 years have been former military men. The military and retired generals, like their counterparts in Pakistan, run important state enterprises, overseeing everything from food manufacturing to running hotel resorts. But what's new and unusual in Egypt is that the military had put itself beyond civilian control. It is "the locus of power, authority and legitimacy in the system, without having to run the country on a day-to-day basis," Cook said.
Debate rages over whether this power grab was the military's plan all along, or whether it has reacted to events.
Michael Hanna, an analyst at the Century Foundation, thinks it was the latter.
"Over the past several months, they saw that the political climate had shifted in their favor and consequently regained their confidence," he said. "They knew the revolutionaries had lost support on the streets and were viewed negatively, so they seized the opportunity."
Many Egyptians still feel the military is something to be proud of, a sentiment shared especially among the poor who are more concerned that Egypt becomes stable and they can provide for their families. In the Upper Egyptian rural governorate of Asyut, home to many young people who have served in the military, factory worker Mohammed Nour, 23, praised the military.
"The military and the people are still one hand," he said. "The military alone can save Egypt and make us one of the greatest countries in the world."
Meanwhile, secular pro-democracy activists who took to Tahrir Square last year are wringing their hands. The very democratic structure they dreamed of appears to have withered in part because they developed no unifying ideology. They appeared to have no plan for a post-Mubarak Egypt. They failed to get solidly behind a single presidential candidate, not least because several possible contenders were disqualified.
Mahmoud Salem, a popular blogger who has journaled the revolution and goes by the name Sandmonkey, said the pro-democracy movement has itself to blame. "You successfully dethrone a tyrant, and you have neither plan nor vision on what to do afterwards, and no real understanding of the regime itself," he posted.
But he also criticized reformers who voted for the Muslim Brotherhood's presidential candidate simply because he was not the "counter-revolutionary."
"Our revolution called for a civil state: nonreligious, nonmilitary, and this guy will try to form a religious military state," Salem wrote about Morsi.
Cook said he believes that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces won't be swayed by reaction from the United States. The United States gives $1.3 billion in annual aid to Egypt, an amount second only to aid the United States provides to Israel.
"The question is, Does anyone in Cairo care?" he said. "The answer is yes and no. It is clear that the [top military commander and de facto leader of Egypt] Field Marshal [Mohamad ] Tantawi and his colleagues are giving far more weight to their domestic interests than the potential consequences with the United States."
But a note from U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to Tantawi to "ensure a full and peaceful transition to democracy" appears to have fallen on deaf ears.
Cook wrote the recent book, "The Struggle for Egypt: From Nasser to Tahrir Square," chronicling the influence of the military in Egyptian national politics. Cook said the level of aid has been static since the early 1980s.
"Historically, the military aid program was intended to help secure peace between Egypt and Israel, establish an ally that could be an asset for military contingencies in the Gulf and be a partner to prevent Soviet penetration of the region," he said.
"Now, we are basically paying for access to airspace and transit through the Suez Canal."
"Now isn't the time to publicly threaten to end U.S. aid, in the midst of an extremely volatile and fluid situation," Lynch said. "But it is the time to forcefully convey to the SCAF privately that the transfer to civilian rule really does matter to the U.S."
Shadi Hamid, research director at the Brookings Doha Center, disagreed. "The U.S. has to show that it's on the side of Egyptian democracy and willing to stand up for it publicly," he said.
"Frankly it has to undo damage. Obama's policy toward the Arab Spring has been completely reactive. We wait until something disastrous happens when we should have anticipated it months ago."
The political chaos and an ever worsening economy appears to have induced a sense of resignation among Egyptians. The turnout in Sunday's run-off vote and the prospect of the Muslim Brotherhood joining forces with secular activists in defense of democracy seems remote. Some secularists even take solace from the dissolution of the parliament, thinking they may do better in fresh elections.
But that shouldn't be confused with stability, warns Lynch. If Shafik is declared the victor, "he will preside over a country in economic collapse, with little prospect of restoring investor confidence any time soon."
Mahmoud Salem, aka Sandmoney, said the pro-democracy movement must start over.
"Do something except running around from demonstration to march to sit-in," he wrote. "Real street work means that the street you live in knows you and trusts you, and will move with you, because you help them and care for them, not because you want to achieve some lofty notions you read about in a book."
But with a people more exhausted than incensed by 18 months of uncertainty, finding the determination for another uprising won't come easily.
Fast facts on the life of Hosni Mubarak
CNN's Ashley Fantz contributed to this report.
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As fireworks burst overhead, Egyptians in Tahrir Square celebrate Mohamed Morsi's election on Sunday.
A supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood is carried away from the tightly packed arena of Tahrir Square in Cairo on Sunday as Mohamed Morsi supporters celebrate his victory in Egypt's presidential election.
Morsi suppporters celebrate in front of a picture of him at his campaign headquarters in Cairo on June 24.
Supporters of presidential candidate Ahmed Shafik react after hearing the results of the presidential elections in Cairo on June 24.
Farouq Sultan, center, head of the Higher Presidential Election Commission, reads the results of the presidential runoff election in Cairo on Sunday, declaring Morsi the winner.
Muslim Brotherhood supporters cheer in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Sunday after hearing of Morsi's victory in Egypt's presidential election.
Egyptians celebrate the election of Morsi after he won 51% of the vote to defeat Shafik.
Egyptians fill Tahrir Square on Sunday, June 24, as they wait for the elections commission to announce the winner of the country's presidential election.
Female supporters of Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate, protest against Egypt's military rulers in Tahrir Square in Cairo on Saturday, June 23. Egyptian election officials had postponed the announcement of a winner in last weekend's presidential runoff, stating they needed more time to evaluate charges of electoral abuse that could affect who becomes the country's next president.
A supporter of presidential candidate Ahmed Shafik, the last prime minister of ousted leader Hosni Mubarak, holds up a wooden Christian cross and Muslim crescent as he and others demonstrate in Nasr city on the outskirts of Cairo, on Saturday, June 23.
The official election results are expected on June 24.
Protesters demonstrate against Egypt's military rulers.
Protesters take a break from shouting slogans to pray in Tahrir Square.
Protesters sleep as they camp overnight in Tahrir Square.
Protesters wave flags and shout slogans in Tahrir Square on Friday, June 22, in Cairo.
Crowds gather in Tahrir Square to protest against Egypt's military rulers.
Protesters shout slogans to denounce what they claim is a power grab by the ruling military, as the nation nervously awaits the results of the first post-Mubarak presidential election.
Protesters gather in front of wall art in Tahrir Square.
Protesters perform Friday noon prayer under tents erected in Cairo's landmark Tahrir Square.
Egyptian activists rest at the foot of a banner of presidential candidate Mohamed Morsi in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Thursday, June 21.
Muslim clerics join demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Thursday to protest the delay of the presidential election results. The Presidential Election Commission postponed the release of the presidential election results, and both candidates have declared themselves winners.
A supporter of Egyptian presidential candidate Ahmed Shafik kisses a portrait of him during a Cairo rally Wednesday, June 20. Shafik was the last prime minister to serve under Hosni Mubarak
Morsi supporters rally in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Monday, June 18. Morsi declared victory as Egypt's first democratically elected president even as military rulers issued a decree that virtually stripped the position of power.
Morsi supporters wave flags Monday in Cairo's Tahrir Square after the Islamists claimed victory. The square was considered the heart of the February 2011 uprising that led to Hosni Mubarak's downfall.
The Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi makes his way through supporters at electoral headquarters early Monday in Cairo. In a victory speech, Morsi did not address the military council's move but tried to allay fears he would impose an Islamist state.
Morsi supporters celebrate Monday in Cairo. Votes in the Egyptian capital, the largest population center, continued to be tallied, but unofficial results by a state-run news website showed Morsi leading elsewhere with 11.2 million votes, compared with 10.3 million for Ahmed Shafik, the last prime minister in the waning days of Mubarak's regime.
Egyptian election officials count ballots at a polling station in Cairo on Sunday, June 17. The official vote count was scheduled to be finished Monday.
The Muslim Brotherhood on Sunday claims its candidate, Mohamed Morsi, has defeated foe Ahmed Shafik to become Egypt's president.
An Egyptian woman shows her ink-stained finger, marking that she voted in Cairo on Sunday.
Women line up to vote at a polling station in Cairo, Egypt, on the second and final day of the run-off presidential election.
Women line-up to cast their vote at a polling station in Cairo on Sunday.
Egyptian Christian Coptic men help a woman reach a polling station in the Cairo Coptic Shubra neighborhood on Saturday, June 16. Voters returned to the polls after Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court ruled Thursday that the Islamist-led Parliament must be immediately dissolved.
A full-veiled Egyptian woman casts her vote at a polling station in Cairo on June 16.
Egyptians queue outside a polling station in Cairo.
An Egyptian Muslim Salafist shows his ink-stained finger after voting at a polling station.
An Egyptian woman dips her finger in indelible ink after casting her ballot.
Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi, center, waves to his supporters as he arrives at a polling station to vote in the city of Zagazig.
An Egyptian woman casts her ballot in Cairo.
Egyptians check to see their names are listed before casting their votes at a polling station.
Egyptian women dip their fingers in ink after voting at a polling station.
An elderly Egyptian man shows the indelible ink stain on his finger after voting on the first day of the second round of the historical presidential election at a polling station in the city of Zagazig.
Egyptians push a truck that was blocking the entrance of a polling station.
An Egyptian man smiles after casting his vote in Giza.
A veiled Egyptian woman looks for her name on the registered voters' list in the city of Zagazig.
An Egyptian Coptic Christian woman casts her vote in the Cairo Coptic neighborhood of Shubra.
Egyptian women cast their votes at a polling station.
An Egyptian woman holds her baby as she prepares to vote at a polling station in Cairo.
An Egyptian man shows off his little finger covered in indelible ink after casting his vote at a polling station in Cairo.
An Egyptian man on his donkey shows his ink-stained finger after casting his ballot.
Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Mursi casts his ballot at a polling station in the city of Zagazig.
An Egyptian woman holds up an ink-stained finger after casting her vote at a polling station in Cairo.
An elderly Egyptian man registers Saturday before voting in the city of Zagazig in an election that pits Ahmed Shafik, the last premier of ousted President Hosni Mubarak, against Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi.
Election officials and an Egyptian soldier direct voters during the second stage of runoff presidential elections at a polling station in Giza.
Egyptian Christian Coptic men check the voters' list Saturday outside a polling station in the Cairo Coptic neighborhood of Shubra.
Egyptians burn the likeness of presidential candidate and former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik in Cairo on Friday, the eve of the nation's presidential election.
A bus driver stops to wave in support of Egyptian protesters making their way to Tahrir Square on Thursday.
Egyptians pray in Tahrir Square on Thursday during a protest against presidential candidate Ahmed Shafik.
A protester stands on a barricade of barbed wire as Egyptian military police stand guard. Egypt's Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that the Islamist-led parliament must be immediately dissolved.
An Egyptian boy waves his shoes as he joins supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood in a protest in Cairo's Tahrir Square against Mubarak-era prime minister and presidential candidate Ahmed Shafik after Egypt's top court rejected on Thursday a law barring him from standing in a tense presidential poll runoff.
Protestors gesture towards military police through a barricade of barbed wire during a protest against presidential candidate Ahmed Shafik outside the Supreme Constitutional Court on Thursday.
People walk past graffiti showing faces of ousted Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, right; Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, second right; former Secretary General of the Arab League Amr Mussa, second left, and former prime minister and presidential candidate Ahmed Shafiq, left, at Tahrir square.
A boy peers through barbed wire at Egyptian military police standing guard outside the Constitutional Court in Cairo on Thursday, June 14.
Egyptian women line up to cast their vote Saturday.
Former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, center, is seated before addressing a business conference in Cairo on Wednesday.
Egyptians read the front page of newspapers for sale outside of Al-Fatah Mosque in Cairo on Friday, May 25.
Ballots are counted by election officials in Alexandria as the country eagerly awaits the outcome Friday.
A supporter of presidential candidate Abdelmonen Abol Fotoh voices her opinions at Tahrir Square on Friday.
Supporters of various candidates debate outside Al-Fatah Mosque in Cairo on Friday.
Electoral officials monitor voting in Namul, a village north of Cairo, on Thursday, May 24, the second and final day of voting in Egypt's historic presidential election. Egypt is holding its first presidential election since last year's toppling of Hosni Mubarak, part of the wave of Arab Spring uprisings.
Egyptian women wait in line Thursday to cast their vote outside a polling station in Cairo. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote in the first round of voting, a second round will be held June 16-17.
An election worker checks the identification of a voter at a polling place Thursday in Namul as Egyptian soldiers stand guard.
A soldier stands watch in the Egyptian capital on the second day of voting. A pervasive fear exists that the powerful military, which has run the country since Mubarak's fall 16 months ago, could try to hijack the election.
An Egyptian man waits to cast his ballot Thursday north of Cairo. The vote is considered Egypt's first free and fair presidential election in modern history.
An Egyptian man drops off his ballot at a polling station Thursday in Cairo. The voting marks the first time Egypt has held a presidential election in which the results aren't known beforehand.
An Egyptian woman holds up an ink-stained finger after casting her ballot in Cairo on Wednesday, May 23, the first day of voting in the historic election.
A voter studies her ballot Wednesday in Cairo. Thirteen candidates are competing in the wide-open race, but two withdrew after ballots were printed.
Egyptian men fill out their ballots Wednesday in Cairo. Results of the first round of voting are not expected before the weekend.
An Egyptian man casts his ballot at a Cairo polling station. Some Egyptians told CNN that they waited up to four hours Wednesday to vote.
Egyptian men shield themselves from the hot sun outside a Cairo polling station Wednesday.
Egyptian men line up to cast their vote Wednesday in Cairo. Some 30,000 volunteers fanned out to ensure voting is fair, said organizers with the April 6 youth movement, which has campaigned for greater democracy in Egypt.
Egyptian men fill out their ballots at a Cairo polling place.
Presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabahy, a leftist dark-horse contender, flashes a sign of victory as he waits to vote at a Cairo school.
Presidential candidate Abdelmonen Abol Fotoh, a moderate Islamist, casts his ballot Wednesday in Cairo.
An Egyptian Coptic nun drops her ballot at a Cairo polling station Wednesday.
Egyptian women wait outside a polling station in Cairo. Many Egyptians seem uncertain of their loyalties to any particular candidate.
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