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Are April presidential polls just a guessing game?

From CNNPolitics.com
Polls taken in April 2007 showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama, who won the Democratic nomination that year.
Polls taken in April 2007 showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Barack Obama, who won the Democratic nomination that year.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • CNN looks at April presidential primary polls, what happened during general election
  • No clear GOP front-runner has emerged for 2012
  • 2012 GOP contest is shaping up to be less similar to the typical GOP primary fight
  • It's been more similar to the 2008 GOP season
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Washington (CNN) -- It's not historically accurate to say that polls conducted this April are destined to be wrong, particularly since we're only interested in the Republican nomination process this year.

Keep in mind, however, that the 2012 GOP contest is shaping up to be less similar to the typical GOP primary fight and more similar to the 2008 GOP season, as well as several past Democratic contests.

No clear GOP front-runner has emerged for 2012. Republicans (unlike Democrats) have a long history of nominating their front-runner, making it easier for the candidate who grabs an early lead to keep it and ride it all the way to the nomination.

CNN takes a look back at presidential primary polls conducted in April and what happened during the general election. The percentages show the portion of poll respondents who supported the candidate.

The 2007 poll is from CNN/Opinion Research Corp. The polls from 2003, 1999 and 1995, are from CNN/USA Today/Gallup, and the one from 1991 is from CNN/Time. All other polls are from Gallup, except the one from 1975, which is a Harris poll.

REPUBLICAN NOMINEES

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APRIL 2007

• Rudy Giuliani: 30%

• John McCain: 24% (winner)

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APRIL 1999

• George W. Bush: 42% (winner)

• Elizabeth Dole: 24%

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APRIL 1995

• Bob Dole: 46% (winner)

• Phil Gramm: 13%

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APRIL 1987

• George H.W. Bush: 34% (winner)

• Dole: 18%

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APRIL 1979

• Ronald Reagan: 29% (winner)

• Gerald Ford: 26%

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APRIL 1975

• Ford: 31% (winner)

• Reagan: 23%



DEMOCRATIC NOMINEES

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APRIL 2007

• Hillary Clinton: 36%

• Barack Obama: 28% (winner)

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APRIL 2003

• Joe Lieberman: 23%

• John Kerry: 17% (winner)

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APRIL 1999

• Al Gore: 66% (winner)

• Bill Bradley: 23%

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APRIL 1991

• Jesse Jackson: 16%

• Mario Cuomo: 11%

• Bill Clinton: 1% (winner)

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APRIL 1987

• Gary Hart: 46%

• Jackson: 18%

• Michael Dukakis: 4% (winner)

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APRIL 1983

• Walter Mondale: 29% (winner)

• John Glenn: 23%

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APRIL 1979

• Ted Kennedy: 56%

• Jimmy Carter: 30% (winner)

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APRIL 1975

• Ted Kennedy: 27%

• George Wallace: 18%

• Carter: 1% (winner)

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APRIL 1971

• Edmund Muskie: 23%

• Ted Kennedy: 20%

• George McGovern: 4% (winner)

CNN's Keating Holland and Ed Hornick contributed to this report.

 
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