Chavez faces test in Sunday elections

CARACAS, Venezuela (CNN) -- Nearly 17 million Venezuelans are eligible to vote Sunday in about 600 races for governors, mayors and legislators. But President Hugo Chavez has made it clear the election is really all about one person not on any ballot -- himself.

Sunday's vote will be the first since Chavez suffered a stinging defeat last year in a constitutional referendum that would have allowed him to run again in 2012. Major losses by his ruling PSUV party Sunday would deeply damage any effort to place the referendum on the ballot again.

"In the final tally," political analyst Luis Vicente Leon told CNN, "it's not the election of governors and mayors that he is looking for. He is looking to show the country an electoral triumph to wipe a little of the egg off his face from his defeat in the constitutional referendum, starting with the premise that President Chavez desperately needs to have another referendum to have continuous re-election."

A loss for Chavez's party also would weaken him at a time when he has suffered several defections from his Fifth Republic Movement. Likewise, victories by his party would help cement his grip on power.

Chavez has said in speeches in which he calls opponents "thieves" and "capos" that his 10-year-old government's fate is at stake. He refers to "my candidates" and talks about the votes being for him.

"If we do everything we have to do and we don't leave one single vote for Chavez out of the ballot box, we could win all the states in Venezuela next Sunday, November 23," he said at a boisterous rally earlier this week.

Winning a majority of the mayor's and governor's races would be the fastest and easiest way for Chavez to continue his socialist revolution, said political analyst Nelson Merentes.

At stake Sunday will be 22 governorships, 326 mayor's posts and 233 legislative seats. Six of the governorships are in the hands of the opposition.

Analysts will be paying particular attention to Chavez's home state of Barinas, where his older brother is running for governor.

A loss in that race "could cause President Chavez much symbolic damage because he would be losing in the cradle of his revolution and around his family," said Leon, who is with the Datanalisis polling firm.

Chavez also could run into trouble in three other heavily industrial states, analyst Merentes told CNN.

Although Chavez has said he will honor all election results, he also has made statements that the opposition sees as threatening.

Speaking in Carabobo state, Chavez said: "If you allow the oligarchy to return to governing, maybe I will end up taking my tanks from the armored brigade to defend the revolutionary government."

In the view of Herman Escarra, a constitutional lawyer, Chavez's statement presents a clear threat. "The president is violating democratic guarantees," Escarra said.

But some Venezuelans see no problems with Chavez's statement.

"The state must be ready for any possibility of agitation, any possibility of violence and must ensure, applying legal means, to guarantee the peace," said Julio Latan, president of the Association of Bolivian Lawyers.

Chavez also has vowed to withhold federal funding from states that have "counterrevolutionary" governors and mayors.

"What for?" he asked at a rally. "So that they can steal it or so that they can use it in a conspiracy against me? I would be irresponsible if I did that."

Some Venezuelans say Chavez can't do that.

"The constitution says very well and very clearly that 20 percent of the country's taxes be distributed to the states and the mayorships in proportion to the number of residents each state and each mayorship has," said Gerardo Blyde, an attorney and former member of the National Assembly. "They are not President Chavez's resources. They are Venezuelan resources."

Sunday's election also presents Chavez with a new challenge -- facing opposition from some politicians who helped put him in power.

Eduardo Manuit, the governor of Guarico state, quit Chavez's PSUV party after strong disagreements with the president.

"For 9½ years we accompanied the president in all his projects, in all his elections," Manuit told CNN. "I believe now it is necessary to review if, in these 10 years, on balance this socialist project is as it was when we set out or there was a deviation."

Others have been expelled from Chavez's party.

Luis Tascon now heads his own party, the New Revolutionary Path.

"I was thrown out without the right to defend myself, without any right," Tascon said, adding that he founded his own party because corruption has done much damage to Chavez's movement.

But the PSUV says the party has not thrown out many people, and that a number of people have excluded themselves.

"We maintain that we are not the Inquisition," PSUV official Alberto Muler Rojas told CNN.

Journalist Maria Carolina Gonzalez contributed to this report.

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