Zakaria: China, Russia may be forced 'out of the closet' on Sudan

Editor's note: Fareed Zakaria is a preeminent foreign affairs analyst and hosts "Fareed Zakaria: GPS" on CNN at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.

NEW YORK (CNN) -- The International Criminal Court announced this week it is seeking an arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir.

The United States has accused the Sudanese regime of genocide in the killings in western Sudan where an estimated 200,000 have died and many more have been forced to flee. CNN spoke with World Affairs analyst and author Fareed Zakaria about the situation.

CNN: What does the arrest warrant against the president of Sudan mean?

Zakaria: What it does mean more than anything is that both China and Russia, who have been tacitly supporting Sudan in the Security Council, will have to come out of the closet.

They now have to take a public stand on the indictment. If they join in the condemnation it probably makes the Sudanese president's life considerably more difficult.

The Sudanese ambassador tells me his is banking on the Russian and Chinese vetoes in the Security Council to shield him from any action by the council.

CNN: What is the likelihood of this leading to some kind of peace?

Zakaria: Actually not that great. The arrest and even conviction are fully warranted as justice for the crimes of genocide. But to get peace in Darfur you need to right now broker some kind of deal in which all parties -- both the government backed forces and the rebels -- agree to stop fighting. And we are a long way from that.

CNN: What should the U.S. do?

Zakaria: Well, we should support this process. Unfortunately, we cannot in any meaningful sense because we have refused to join the treaty setting up the International Criminal Court. This episode is a good illustration of why it's difficult for us to lead the world if we turn our backs on international institutions and norms.

CNN: Do either of the candidates have a position on what should be done?

Zakaria: Both support establishing a no fly zone. But that won't do much. For the last year, most of the fighting in Darfur hasn't required much air support. Most of the use of air space is for humanitarian flights. Honestly, the best path for getting a resolution is to push the Chinese to use their leverage. This is a case where the U.S. has very limited leverage.

CNN: So should one throw their hands up in despair?

Zakaria: No. It's just that there isn't a single simple path to solve the crisis in Darfur. It means we should be pushing on several areas in several places. The goal is a political deal between the rebels and the government-backed forces. That is the only path to a lasting settlement.

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