Analysis: Could Obama keep Bush's intelligence team?

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- There's a lot of buzz in the air about who might be filling key intelligence positions in the Obama administration.

Most of it seems to be, at best, informed speculation. The people in the know are holding their cards very close to the vest, and the Obama transition team is adamant in saying no decisions have been made.

What is the likelihood that the two men holding the key intelligence positions in the Bush administration -- Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell and CIA Director Michael Hayden -- would continue in their jobs?

At an awards ceremony Wednesday, McConnell said, "The message that both Gen. Hayden and I have delivered to the incoming administration is, 'We view ourselves as professionals -- as apolitical professionals -- and we are available to serve at the pleasure of the president.'

"If they choose others, that's fine. We're happy with that. We have other things to do," he added.

An argument can be made that continuity within the national security team is crucial considering the very difficult challenges posed by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the worldwide battle against terrorism.

Both McConnell and Hayden have been credited with helping restore credibility and stability to the intelligence community after the failure to connect the dots before the September 11 attacks and the fiasco over whether Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

Whether either would stay depends on who you're talking to. McConnell is seen as the least political.

Some on Capitol Hill have even called him politically naive after the difficult negotiations over the law that determined the process for the intelligence community to spy on terrorist communications.

At one point during the tense discussion, the Democrats claimed that McConnell had agreed verbally to a deal but that he later changed his mind because of what they considered pressure from the White House.

One Congressional aide suggested that the director of national intelligence had no idea how to handle the political pressures.

Spokesman Richard Willing said McConnell has indicated that he would like to return to private life but that he is "willing to stay on for a reasonable amount of time to help get his successor in place."

Hayden, on the other hand, is closely linked to the Bush administration's controversial warrantless wiretapping program, the so-called Terrorist Surveillance Program.

Hayden was the head of the National Security Agency, which was responsible for intercepting phone conversations and e-mails, when the program was initiated.

As a senator, President-elect Barack Obama voted against Hayden's nomination to become CIA director to protest the surveillance program.

Hayden has also publicly supported the enhanced interrogation techniques authorized by President Bush and used by the CIA against high-value terrorists caught overseas and held in secret prisons around the world.

Does Hayden want to stay? A senior intelligence official said Hayden is focused on his job, and if he's asked to stay, he'll consider it at that time.

The official added, "Hayden likes the work, he has a high regard for the people there, and he cares deeply about the mission."

There is precedent for a director remaining on the job after a change in administration. When Bush took office in 2001, he retained President Clinton's CIA director, George Tenet.

Tenet left the position in 2004, becoming the second longest-serving director in CIA history.

This is the first presidential transition since the director of national intelligence position was created four years ago as part of the Intelligence Reform Act.

If one or both of the men leave, who might replace them?

There are a number of names floating around Washington. John Brennan, the former career CIA officer who headed the National Counter Terrorism Center, has been advising Obama on national security issues and is considered by many to be a leading contender for either position.

Also mentioned for either of the two top posts: Rep. Jane Harman, D-California, who chaired the House Intelligence Committee; retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Nebraska, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee; and Timothy Roemer, the former Indiana congressman who served on both the congressional and presidential September 11 commissions.

Tom Fingar, the deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, who while serving as the intelligence chief at the State Department disputed the majority view that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, has also been mentioned.

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