Lack of Democratic contest could alter Michigan GOP primary

(CNN) -- The most compelling action during Michigan's primary Tuesday will be on the Republican side. The Democratic Party has stripped the state of its delegates for moving up its primary date so early, and top-tier Democratic candidates have taken their names off the ballot, except for Sen. Hillary Clinton.

In many ways, the Republican battle for Michigan will be similar to last week's New Hampshire contest. The primary is open, and any registered voter -- including independents and Democrats -- can participate.

Sen. John McCain won New Hampshire with the help of independent voters, and he is campaigning hard to re-create that success in Michigan.

In 2000, McCain defeated then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush in the Michigan primary. In that vote, more than half -- 52 percent -- were either independents or Democrats. Among Republican voters, McCain lost to Bush 29 percent to 66 percent. In that contest, almost three out of every 10 voters identified themselves as members of the religious right.

Overall, Michigan is a swing state, producing narrow margins of victory for presidential candidates and statewide officeholders. However, voting trends favor the Democrats.

Michigan's governor, Jennifer Granholm, is a Democrat, as are the state's two U.S. senators -- Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow. The Democratic presidential nominee has carried Michigan in the last four elections. Sen. John Kerry, the Democrats' 2004 standard bearer, won Michigan 51 percent to 48 percent over President Bush.

The state's economy is powered by the automotive industry, which has experienced its fair share of struggles. Michigan's unemployment rate, 7.4 percent, is higher than the national average of 5 percent.

Region by region

Wayne County, in the southeastern corner of the state, contains the economically depressed Detroit, Michigan's largest city. Detroit is predominantly black and solidly Democratic.

North of Wayne County are the more-affluent suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb, which have grown in population in the last two decades. These two counties have been the state's central political battleground in recent elections.

West of Wayne is the "university belt," home to the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor and Michigan State University in East Lansing. The area also includes the industrial cities of Saginaw and Flint, where unions remain strong, as well as Jackson and Bay City. The state's capital, Lansing, and the sparsely populated upper peninsula are also part of this region.

The southwest part of the state is dominated by Grand Rapids, Michigan's second-largest city. Grand Rapids is traditionally Dutch-American and has many Christian conservatives and generally votes Republican. The area also contains smaller industrial cities and farming communities.

The economy of the sparsely populated north and northwest is based on agriculture, tourism and timber. It traditionally votes Republican.

Endorsements

The Detroit Free Press has endorsed McCain. "While the Free Press differs with McCain on a number of issues, the Arizona senator is a smarter, more tested and pragmatic leader who has shown since 2000 that he knows how to build bipartisan alliances around issues," the newspaper said in an editorial.

The Detroit News also endorsed McCain, citing his fiscal conservatism and command of military and foreign affairs, over Michigan native Mitt Romney.

"Other GOP contenders, most notably former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, are capable figures with impressive resumes and a solid grasp of the issues. But McCain's longtime presidential ambitions are at last aligned with the needs of the nation," the newspaper said. E-mail to a friend

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