Schneider: Giuliani's in Florida, but will that strategy work?

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- So what's the big news in the Republican race? Huckabee vs. Romney? McCain's endorsements? Ron Paul's money?

How about: Where's Rudy Giuliani?

The former mayor of New York has been spending a lot of time in Florida, his first must-win state. And where would you rather be this time of year -- Iowa or Florida?

Giuliani's still the national front-runner, according to the most recent national survey -- a Gallup poll out Tuesday. Four other candidates -- former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- are essentially tied for second.

But the action is in the early voting states -- Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Giuliani is not leading in any of them. Polls in Michigan and Nevada show a close race between Giuliani and Romney.

Giuliani could go through the entire first month of the campaign without winning anything. Is he worried? Not according to his pollster. "The real focus is running the national campaign, obviously Florida being the only big contest for us," said Ed Goeas, a Giuliani campaign adviser and pollster.

Giuliani does have a clear lead in Florida, which doesn't vote until the end of January, followed a week later by more big-state primaries, including New York, New Jersey, California and Illinois. Giuliani expects to sweep the big states.

Can he afford to wait that long?

If one candidate sweeps the early voting states, that candidate will have tremendous momentum. Giuliani could look like the forgotten contender.

On the other hand, the Giuliani campaign would be very happy to see the early states split -- say, Huckabee win Iowa, then McCain win New Hampshire, then Thompson win South Carolina.

"I think letting that fight for second occur when we run a national campaign is very much to the candidate's benefit," Goeas said.

The polls show Giuliani's standing has eroded a bit since summer. That could have something to do with what's happening in the Democratic race. Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York doesn't look quite so inevitable as the Democratic nominee.

"I think a lot of the support in South Carolina behind Giuliani, behind Romney, was the concept of 'This is the person who can knock off Hillary,' " said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist and pollster at Winthrop University in South Carolina. If Clinton is less of a threat, some Republicans may be going with a candidate they agree with more.

Giuliani's signature issue has always been terrorism. But according to a recent CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, terrorism is no longer the voters' top concern. Among all voters, terrorism ranks fifth out of five issues. Among Republicans, it's in third place, behind the economy and illegal immigration. And it's declining in importance. The agenda is shifting to domestic issues.

But Giuliani is not worried.

"I think what you've seen is not just terrorism fading as an important issue as much as there's been a layer added on to Rudy Giuliani, understanding what he did as mayor, bringing down welfare, crime, cutting taxes 23 times," Goeas said.

Giuliani's a big-state man -- Florida, California, New York. But the big states vote late. He's counting on the other candidates to split the early voting states. Because happiness in politics is a divided opposition. E-mail to a friend

All About Rudolph Giuliani • U.S. Presidential Election