GOP sees victory in Massachusetts defeat

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- What does a special election in Massachusetts have to do with next year's battle for Congress?

A lot, Republicans hope. The Democrat beat the Republican in Tuesday's contest, but the GOP sees victory in defeat.

The widow of the late Sen. Paul Tsongas won the special election to fill the remainder of the term of Rep. Marty Meehan. The Massachusetts Democrat resigned from Congress earlier this year to become the chancellor of the University of Massachusetts, Lowell campus.

Niki Tsongas defeated Republican Jim Ogonowski, a former Air Force pilot whose brother was piloting one of the hijacked airliners that crashed into the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001. It was a hard- fought battle for the state's 5th Congressional District, which partially borders New Hampshire.

Tsongas, whose late husband once held the same congressional seat before being elected to the Senate, topped Ogonowski 51 percent to 46 percent.

And that's what the Republicans are crowing about.

Massachusetts is a very blue state and this district is dominated by Democrats. It went by double digits for Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election and John Kerry, the state's junior senator, four years later.

Meehan won 67 percent of the vote in his 2004 re-election bid, and was unopposed last year.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole, R-Oklahoma, says, "Democrats have a reason to worry. In a race that should have been won in a walk, Democrats were forced to funnel a massive amount of resources and dispatch an all-star cast of liberal icons at the 11th hour in order to ensure victory."

People are angry with the Democrat-led Congress, Cole contends.

"In a little over nine months, they have gone from being perceived as agents of change and the answer to the problem in Washington to becoming the actual problem," said Cole, adding that Ogonowski had "opened the door for future Republican candidates."

Jennifer Crider, communications director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, disagreed, saying "If Tom Cole truly believes that, he should have invested in the race.

"If Republicans are serious, they need to win this type of race and they couldn't do it," she said.

Republicans may be hoping that the Massachusetts 5th becomes the 2008 election cycle's Ohio 2nd District.

Iraq war veteran and Democrat Paul Hackett nearly won a special election in August 2005 in Ohio's predominantly Republican 2nd district.

The race grabbed a lot of media attention and both parties poured a lot of money into the contest. The race became a bellwether for the following year's midterm elections, in which the Democrats grabbed back control of both houses of Congress.

But will the special election in Massachusetts become a bellwether for next year's congressional elections?

It's true that House Democrats have suffered setbacks this year, and the approval ratings for the Democrat-controlled Congress are near bottom.

But right now, it appears the Democrats are still in the driver's seat. Republicans are saddled with an unpopular president and an unpopular war, they're trailing the Democrats in the battle for campaign cash, and they're facing at least a dozen retirements in the House and five in the Senate.

Right now they're down 233 to 200 in the House, with two seats vacant. The Democratic lead is not insurmountable, and after some very public infighting among top House Republicans, it appears fences have been mended. House Republicans are also becoming more aggressive in taking on the Democrats.

"The Republicans are in a hole when it comes to mood, money, retirements, and message," says Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan political analyst and editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

He adds, "This is a whole series of issues that are unlikely to go away in the next year and this presents Republicans with a significant challenge to just hang on in 2008." E-mail to a friend

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