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Romney hopes to use Iowa to shake up '08 race

By Bill Schneider
CNN Senior Political Analyst

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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Bible says, "The last shall be first." In Iowa, the third shall be first.

Five national polls of Republican voters this month show former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani with a narrow lead for the Republican presidential nomination. The average in CNN's "poll of polls": Giuliani, 26 percent; Arizona Sen. John McCain, 22; and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney running third at 9 percent.

National polls help raise money and get press attention. But there is no national primary.

The first state where Republicans actually vote is Iowa. The Hawkeye State could turn those national polls upside down overnight. In the 2004 Democratic race, the Iowa caucuses blew former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean out of first place and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry into the lead in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The Des Moines Register polled Republican caucus participants in Iowa last week. The results are very different from the national polls. Romney vaults from third place to first by a sizeable margin. (Romney 30 percent, McCain 18, Giuliani 17).

Many Republicans nationwide don't know much about Romney, but he won the first-quarter fundraising race and he is using his money to build a network of supporters in Iowa. He is also running a TV ad targeting conservatives, who dominate the Iowa Republican caucuses. "Legal immigration is great. But illegal immigration, we've got to end. . . . And amnesty is not the way to do it," Romney says in the ad. (Watch CNN analysts debate what is behind Romney's surge )

The Thompson, Gingrich effect

A Research 2000 poll of Iowa Republicans, also taken last week, has McCain, Giuliani and Romney all bunched together for first place (18, 17 and 16 percent, respectively). McCain and Giuliani do the same in both Iowa polls. Why does Romney's support fall by nearly half in the Research 2000 poll?

That poll includes two potential Republican candidates, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who together get 15 percent of the vote. Just about what Romney loses.

Romney seems to be making headway with Iowa conservatives. He sounded tough on terrorism at the latest Republican debate. "Some people have said we ought to close Guantanamo. My view is, we ought to double Guantanamo," Romney said.

Thompson or Gingrich could challenge Romney for conservative votes in Iowa. But they're not running right now.

If Romney wins Iowa, that could vault him to victory a week later in New Hampshire -- just as John Kerry's Iowa victory did in 2004. Romney, like Kerry, is well-known in New Hampshire. He's from next-door Massachusetts.

Edwards leads Democrats

What about the Democrats? Same thing.

In national polls of Democrats, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has a big lead. The average of the five national polls of Democrats taken this month show: Clinton, 40 percent; Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 25 percent; and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards placing third with 15 percent.

But in Iowa, it's different.

Both polls of Iowa Democratic caucus participants show a close race among all three candidates. The Des Moines Register poll has Edwards in first place with 29 percent, followed by Obama at 23 percent and Clinton with 21 percent. The Research 2000 poll has Clinton and Edwards just about tied for first (Clinton 28 percent, Edwards 26).

For Democrats as well as Republicans, in Iowa, the third shall be first.

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