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South Carolina's social conservatives key test for Giuliani

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COLUMBIA, South Carolina (CNN) -- Given the influence of social conservatives in South Carolina, the GOP presidential debate in Columbia Tuesday will be a key test for Rudy Giuliani, a former big-city mayor who supports abortion rights.

The debate will air on Fox News at 9 p.m. ET. The CNN political team will provide live coverage of the debate on the CNN Political Ticker throughout the evening.

In the last GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California, Giuliani's response to a question about abortion was faulted by anti-abortion activists and fellow GOP hopefuls who oppose abortion. They said Giuliani did not clearly state his stance.

As a result of the criticism, Giuliani said he personally opposed abortion but defended a woman's right to end her pregnancy.

Katon Dawson, the Republican state chairman, said he does not believe Giuliani's views on abortion will be as much of a liability as they would have been in the 1980s and 1990s, at the height of Christian conservative power in the state.

"One issue won't be a disqualifier in Republican party politics here, and, at certain times, there were disqualifiers," he said.

But one of Giuliani's strongly anti-abortion rivals, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, said he believes abortion is a critical issue to GOP voters and is hoping Tuesday's debate will provide a forum for sharpening the differences between the candidates.

"It's a big core issue for this party since 1980, when we adopted it in the party platform, so it's a substantial issue," Brownback said.

A 2000 stumbling block

South Carolina has also proved to be a stumbling block for one of Giuliani's main rivals for the GOP presidential nomination, Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Back in 2000, McCain's White House bid was derailed in South Carolina, where he lost to George Bush, who had strong backing from the state's political establishment. This time around, though, it is the Arizona senator who has deep establishment support, with the backing of popular U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and the state's attorney general, secretary of state, House speaker and agriculture commissioner making him the big early favorite here.

However, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford -- who is so far neutral in the presidential race -- said McCain's endorsements won't automatically translate down to the grassroots.

"A number of people in the current organization are Bush folks from the last go-round -- the very folks who worked to defeat him [McCain]," Sanford said. "So he's won certainly that level of support, and the question, I think, in this race will be whether or not that extends down to the ground."

In addition to McCain, Giuliani and Brownback, the other candidates in Tuesday night's forum are former Govs. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Jim Gilmore of Virginia and Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin; and Reps. Ron Paul of Texas, Tom Tancredo of Colorado and Duncan Hunter of California.

'Bellwether of what comes next'

State Republican officials believe the event will cement South Carolina's significance as the "Gateway to the South" presidential primary, even in a cycle where so many other, larger states are crowding the early primary calendar.

Sanford said he believes the event, on the University of South Carolina campus in Columbia, will cement the state's significance as the South's gateway in presidential politics, even though another Southern state, Florida, is trying to crowd ahead on the 2008 campaign calendar.

"South Carolina is a bellwether of what comes next, based on what has happened in past races," Sanford said. "What you want to do as early as possible in the process is figure out front-runners from those who are not. And the narrowing process, I think, really begins in South Carolina."

That sentiment is echoed by Dawson, the state party chairman, who calls South Carolina a "must-win Republican state."

"No one since 1980 has gone on to lose the Republican primary here and win the nomination," Dawson said.

The Palmetto State traditionally follows Iowa and New Hampshire in the presidential campaign schedule. Currently, the GOP primary is scheduled for February 2, while Democrats have chosen January 29.

However, to keep South Carolina's place in the presidential pecking order, Republican officials are considering moving up their primary to get ahead of Florida, whose legislators recently voted to move their primary to the first Tuesday after New Hampshire, currently January 29.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist , a Republican, supports the move, and is expected to sign the bill changing the primary date next week.

Sanford defended his state's early spot on the calendar, saying the Palmetto State is a representative battleground because of its racial and economic diversity. On the heels of Iowa and New Hampshire, it would be the first state with a large black population, and it also has growing populations of Latinos and retirees.

The governor said his state is "a reflection of the South at large and ... a number of the other Sun Belt and growth states across our nation."

CNN's John King contributed to this report.

Obama catches Clinton in race for superdelegates Sen. Barack Obama has tied Sen. Hillary Clinton in the race for superdelegates, according to CNN's latest count.

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