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GOP looking for standout to emerge from debate

By John King
CNN Washington Bureau

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COLUMBIA, South Carolina (CNN) -- The State newspaper headline Monday sums up the sense of anticipation among South Carolina Republicans as they prepare for Tuesday night's debate involving their party's presidential candidates: "GOP looks for a standout."

Yet Republican Gov. Mark Sanford is quick to acknowledge how hard it is to stand out in a 10 candidate field that will field questions but will not get a chance for a true debate.

Still, the governor tells CNN he believes those who view Tuesday's forum in Columbia, South Carolina, will "begin to get a sense of where somebody is coming from."

The debate will air on Fox News at 9 p.m. ET. The CNN political team will provide live coverage of the debate on the CNN Political Ticker throughout the evening.

And, the governor believes the event will cement South Carolina's significance as the "Gateway to the South" presidential primary, even in a cycle where so many other, larger states are crowding the early primary calendar.

"South Carolina is a bellwether of what comes next based on what has happened in past races, " Sanford said in an interview at his state capital office. "What you want to do as early as possible in the process is figure out frontrunners from those who are not. And the narrowing process I think really begins in South Carolina."

South Carolina traditionally follows Iowa and New Hampshire, and the state GOP says it will move the 2008 primary date if necessary to continue that tradition. Currently the South Carolina Republicans have scheduled their primary for February 2.

Sanford says he thinks in the long term it would be helpful for both parties to settle on a longer nominating system so that candidates with less money and less national name recognition might have better odds.

But he forcefully defended his state's early spot on the calendar, suggesting it was a perfect battleground because of its racial and economic diversity. It is the first state with a significant African American population with a voice in presidential politics and has a growing Latino and retiree population. Sanford cast the state as "a reflection of the South at large and ... a number of the other Sun Belt and growth states across our nation."

A test of evangelical influence

The contest here is, among other things, a test of the influence of evangelical Christians. This is one of the states where the Christian Coalition and other Christian conservative organizations rose to prominence in state and national Republican politics in the 1980s and 1990s.

Many Republicans, though, believe the influence of the so called religious right is waning -- a contention that will be tested by at least one leading candidate, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who supports abortion rights.

It also is a test of the power of the state's GOP establishment, which has largely rallied around the candidacy of Arizona Senator John McCain. There is considerable irony here: McCain won the New Hampshire primary back in 2000; but then Texas Governor George W. Bush rode his deep establishment support here to a South Carolina victory that was the beginning of the end for McCain.

McCain's supporters here include U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, the state attorney general and secretary of state, as well as the state House speaker and agriculture commissioner.

Sanford, who has so far avoided any endorsement, is the biggest exception to McCain's South Carolina establishment advantage.

Republican governors here have been power brokers in campaigns past. The late Carroll Campbell, for example, used his political network to help George H.W. Bush to a 1988 victory here that all but clinched the GOP nomination.

Sanford, however, appears determined to stay on the sidelines.

"I'm staying out," said the governor.

"That could change. That might change. But I think at this stage it's doubtful."

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