Schneider: McCain hits the reboot key

Story Highlights

• McCain is last in first-quarter fundraising among top 6 presidential candidates
• Among voters, he's tied with Rudy Giuliani in latest New Hampshire poll
• Arizona Republican looks to restart campaign after April 25 official announcement

By Bill Schneider
CNN Senior Political Analyst

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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Why is the McCain campaign like a balky computer? When you get lots of error messages, you know it's time to reboot.

Fundraising totals for the first quarter are in. Among the six leading presidential candidates in both parties, Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, came in last with $12.5 million.

Compare McCain's money with the top Democratic fundraiser: Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, who raised $26 million; and with the top Republican fundraiser: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who brought in $20.63 million. (Graphic: View the quarter fundraising numbers)

What do these numbers mean for McCain? David Winston,an unaffiliated Republican consultant, offered this assessment:``His campaign has floundered. It's struggling, and the amount of money he raised in contrast to other Republicans reflects that."

The latest CNN-WMUR poll of New Hampshire Republican primary voters, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, shows McCain in a dead heat with fellow Republican and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. (They both have 29 percent.) Giuliani has been gaining support among moderate Republican voters in New Hampshire, while Romney has picked up support from conservatives. (Romney's support was at 17 percent among all New Hampshire Republicans.) (Full story)

McCain beat George W. Bush in the 2000 New Hampshire primary, and he will be in serious trouble if he loses New Hampshire this time.

Republicans have a long history of nominating the heir apparent in an orderly way -- Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000. This time, McCain has done everything he can to make himself look like the heir apparent. So what's the problem?

"The problem that he's running into is that he's creating two McCains," says Winston, "the McCain of 2000, and then this McCain who will do anything to get elected in 2008. The personality voters like was the McCain in 2000."

Today's McCain is rebooting his fundraising by embracing the big-money techniques used by George W. Bush. But McCain, who co-sponsored campaign finance reform with Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wisconsin, has always said he wants to curb the influence of big money in politics.

Today's McCain also embraced Bush's war policy just after voters repudiated that policy last November.

This time, it's not clear that Republicans are looking to nominate the heir apparent. Fewer than a quarter of Republican voters in New Hampshire say they strongly approve of Bush's job performance. More than a third disapprove.

Giuliani and Romney are Washington outsiders. They can run as candidates of change. And McCain?

"He looks like the candidate of the past," says Winston. "Not the candidate of the future."

McCain remains popular. The poll shows a 10-point increase in his favorability rating among New Hampshire Republicans.

The McCain campaign told CNN they believe that Giuliani, who has never run for national office before, is getting a bounce from his celebrity, and from his announcement.

McCain will officially announce his candidacy with a national tour beginning April 25, and he'll try to get his own bounce. Watch for McCain version 2.0.

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