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Schneider: And the GOP frontrunner is ...

By Bill Schneider
CNN Senior Political Analyst

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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Republican frontrunner for 2008 is. ... Well, that question is now a little tougher to answer.

The Republican Party chairman in South Carolina, one of the early primary states, thinks no leader has emerged. "Right now, there is no frontrunner," says Katon Dawson. "It's wide open here in South Carolina."

The frontrunner was supposed to be Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona. McCain's been mending relations with conservatives he used to pick fights with, like the Rev. Jerry Falwell and President Bush.

But McCain has had some problems lately. He is no longer first in the polls of Republicans nationwide. His fundraising so far this year puts him in third place among Republicans, behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. (Compare fundraising totals)

McCain's trip to Iraq this week has tied him even tighter to Bush's war policy. "We know there's a long way to go and the enemy is fierce," said McCain, "but certainly it seems that we are on the right road."

Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner in the polls, but he's number two in fundraising. He explained that he got a late start. "We only started, like, January 27," said Giuliani, "We ended up with a lot of money."

What happens if you're running third in the polls but first in fundraising, like Mitt Romney? Your campaign gets a second chance. Romney is the only Republican who raised more than $20 million. That's raising eyebrows in the political world.

Part of Romney's pitch for president is the desire for something new. "It's time to have somebody go to Washington who knows how to change things for the better," he said.

Change? Romney's a Republican! Is change what the Republicans are looking for? Maybe. "I would think that the message of change is resonating," said Dawson, "along with what the vision is for the next eight years."

Romney is a Washington outsider who can sell change. McCain's mistake may have been to jump aboard Bush's ship just when it was about to run aground.

A lot of Republicans are unhappy with all three leading candidates. They've already got 10 contenders to choose from, but some are hoping to entice one more into the field.

That one more is former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, a lawyer-turned actor-turned politician-turned actor. Conservatives longing for another Ronald Reagan are wondering, can Fred Thompson play that role?

"I've certainly seen a lot of excitement for Sen. Thompson," Dawson said. "We know him. We've watched his record in Washington, and I think that he'd be a very viable candidate."

This unhappiness among the Republicans is a little unusual. Normally, the Republican race is an orderly succession, while the Democrats have a free-for-all. This time, the Republican race looks more wide open.

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