Sign InRegister

Deaths, debate rage on after 3 years

Officials differ on whether Iraq has slipped into civil war

In the southern city of Basra, an Iraqi woman bakes bread Sunday in the shadow of a bombed-out building.

• Iraq: Three years later

• Protests mark anniversary

• General: Insurgents well armed

• Interactive: Bush and Iraq poll

SPECIAL REPORT

• Interactive: Who's who in Iraq

• Interactive: Sectarian divide

• Timeline: Bloodiest days for civilians

• Coalition Casualties

• Special Report

YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- On the third anniversary of the Iraq war, more than 2,300 U.S. troops have died, tens of thousands of Iraqis have been killed and a fledgling democratically elected government is trying to hold the country together.

The Bush administration has measured progress in Iraq through three elections and the ability of Iraqi security forces to conduct raids and respond to the violence that grips Baghdad and other major areas.

Others see signs of civil war. (Watch the debate over civil war -- 2:38)

"We are losing each day as an average 50 to 60 people throughout the country, if not more," former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi told the BBC. "If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is."

Although conditions have not passed the "point of no return," he said, if that point is reached, fragile efforts to build a new government "will not only fall apart but sectarianism will spread throughout the region, and even Europe and the U.S. will not be spared the violence that results."

In recent weeks, killings described by witnesses as sectarian in nature have raised the specter of descent into civil war. (Watch Iraqis blame politicians, insurgents and the U.S. for problems -- 4:27)

Under Saddam Hussein, the minority Sunnis wielded power, often through violence against Shiites and Kurds. In the new government, the Sunnis have a minority voice, and many officials think the insurgency is largely fueled by disaffected Sunnis.

In the aftermath of the March 2003 invasion, most of the insurgent attacks focused on U.S.-led coalition forces. In time, terrorists increasingly have attacked Iraqi police and troops and also targeted civilians.

In December, President Bush estimated 30,000 Iraqis had died in the war.

The main morgue in Baghdad receives dozens of victims who die violently each day. More than 10,000 bodies were delivered in 2005, according to The Associated Press, which examined morgue records. That figure was higher than the 2004 total of 8,000 and 6,000 in 2003, the AP found.

The Bush administration says Iraq is not in a civil war, but Vice President Dick Cheney said terrorists are desperate to foster one.

"What we've seen is a serious effort by them to foment civil war, but I don't think they've been successful," Cheney said Sunday on CBS' "Face the Nation."

Gen. George Casey, who oversees U.S. troops in Iraq, also denied the "civil war" label.

The situation is a long way from being "a broad civil war," Casey told CNN's "Late Edition With Wolf Blitzer" on Sunday. "But I don't want to sugarcoat it either. This is a very fragile time, and there are people getting killed."

Lawmakers have also argued the point. The debate carries political significance in both nations, as Iraqi officials work to build a permanent government and Bush's approval rating is at a record low.

In Washington, the president offered an optimistic vision for Iraq while thanking U.S. troops for their service during the past three years.

"We're implementing a strategy that will lead to victory in Iraq," he said Sunday. "And a victory in Iraq will make this country more secure and will help lay the foundation of peace for generations to come." (Watch Bush praise the troops and democratization efforts -- 1:57)

Some Democratic lawmakers have criticized the president, saying neither the White House or Pentagon has had a plan for dealing with Iraq since Bush declared major conflict over on May 1, 2003.

U.S. troops still face the danger of homemade bombs responsible for most of the 2,316 U.S. deaths in the war. An additional 205 troops in the U.S.-led coalition have died.

The United States has about 132,000 troops in Iraq, and troop levels will depend on the success of Iraqi forces in taking over security operations, officials have said.

Iraqi and White House officials maintain conditions are improving and the new government has a realistic shot to become a democratic Arab nation.

The 275-member parliament has met once since being elected to four-year terms in December. Members continue to squabble over the candidate for prime minister, and battles over the constitution loom.

A controversial Iraqi lawmaker instrumental in building the U.S. case during the lead-up to the war rejected Allawi's assessment of civil war.

"There is no civil war here," Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Chalabi said Sunday.

"There is some sectarian violence because of the tensions that have been built up under both the CPA [U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority] and the interim government," which was headed by Allawi, said Chalabi, an exile before the war who later fell out of favor with the Bush administration.

Chalabi blamed the U.S. military for exacerbating tensions through operations in Falluja and Najaf, where pitched battles took place between U.S. forces and insurgents in late 2004.

"That frustrated the sectarian tensions, and they are reaping what they sowed. And we are dealing with the consequences of that action then."

Chalabi and Allawi are members of the Iraqi parliament, and their public remarks are often viewed as positioning for power in the new government.

Several lawmakers said the Bush administration must acknowledge that Iraq has reached the point of civil war. Among them were Democrats and a Republican who has long differed with the president over the war -- Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.

"I think we have had a low-grade civil war going on in Iraq, certainly the last six months, maybe the last year. Our own generals have told me that privately," Hagel said Sunday on ABC's "This Week." Hagel did not name the generals.

Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld wrote in Sunday's Washington Post that "turning our backs on postwar Iraq today would be the modern equivalent of handing postwar Germany back to the Nazis."

Rumsfeld's characterization came under fire from officials in two former administrations. (Full story)