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'Tis the season for Oscar hopefuls

By Todd Leopold
CNN

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(CNN) -- It's the time of year when Hollywood has one eye on the box office and the other on a certain 13 1/2-inch-high golden boy and all of his similarly gold-plated buddies.

Yes, blockbusters are nice. They pay the bills, for one thing. But money can only buy so much respect in Tinseltown.

For the rest of it, it's an honor to be nominated --- and this time of year, studios, movie producers, directors and performers are hoping to catch the interest of the honor-granting sovereigns at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (not to mention the other guilds and associations).

Releasing Oscar hopefuls during the last weeks of the year is a tradition that goes back decades, even if some of the recent Oscar winners --- including last year's "Crash" --- came out earlier in the calendar. The thinking has been that well-reviewed films released late in the year stick in the mind more than the same films released in, say, May (though, nowadays, a well-timed video release --- e.g., "Crash" -- can change the game).

" 'Crash' was the exception," says veteran Oscar-watcher and entertainment writer Tom O'Neil, who offers his opinions on the Los Angeles Times' "The Envelope" Web site (http://theenvelope.latimes.com/). The idea of nominating films released earlier, he says, "depends on whether the films released at the end of the year fall apart."

This year, he says, November and December are bringing plenty of good stuff.

O'Neil is highest on "Dreamgirls," though the film, based on the Broadway musical about a trio much like the Supremes, is only now beginning to be seen. (It's scheduled for wide release on Christmas Day.) The buzz on director Bill Condon's film, which stars Jamie Foxx, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson and Beyonce, has been that good.

" 'Dreamgirls' is the movie to beat," O'Neil says. "It may be a long shot [for best picture] because an all-black film has never won, and it may not do well [financially] overseas. But I think this is different. ... Jennifer Hudson is a standout. And a best picture always has a director element, and Bill Condon is very hot right now."

Other films that look like front-runners are the October release "The Queen," starring Helen Mirren as Queen Elizabeth II in the days after Princess Diana's death; and "The Pursuit of Happyness," starring Will Smith as a struggling (and occasionally homeless) father trying to succeed for the betterment of himself and his son. It comes out December 15.

The latter, says O'Neil, has particularly grabbed Hollywood's heart.

"Hollywood has gone crazy over it," he says. "It has reduced people to puddles of tears."

Other forthcoming best picture possibilities include director Alejandro Gonzales Iñarritu's "Babel," just now going into wider release, which has earned a number of good reviews but also some harsh pans; "The Good Shepherd" (December 22), directed by Robert De Niro and starring Matt Damon as CIA operative Edward Wilson; Steven Soderbergh's 1940s period piece "The Good German" (wide release December 22), starring George Clooney and Cate Blanchett; and Emilio Estevez's "Bobby" (wide release November 23), about a group of people whose lives intersect at Los Angeles' Ambassador Hotel prior to the Robert Kennedy assassination.

"Bobby," though it may suffer from people's preconceptions about Estevez, has "knocked out" screening audiences with its script and performances, says O'Neil. It also has a secret weapon: Weinstein Co. executive Harvey Weinstein, the former Miramax head, who is an Oscar campaigner par excellence and helped lead a number of films (most notably "Shakespeare in Love," which beat "Saving Private Ryan" for best picture) to Oscar success.

"Weinstein is really cranking up the ballyhoo," says O'Neil.

Just as interesting are the films that have taken hits on their Oscar chances. Mel Gibson's "Apocalypto" (December 8) may have been hurt by its director's alcohol-fueled tirade in July, says O'Neil, and the just-released "A Good Year," with the "Gladiator" team of director Ridley Scott and star Russell Crowe, has received disappointing reviews.

Other films, such as the movie version of the Tony-winning "The History Boys" (limited release November 21) may receive some acting nods but not the big one: "It's a fine little film, but not a best picture," says O'Neil.

And for people who want a taste of Oscar madness while laughing at all the attendant silliness, there's "For Your Consideration," the new film by Christopher Guest and his squad of champion improvisers, including Eugene Levy, Harry Shearer, Jane Lynch and Fred Willard. The story concerns the makers of an independent film, "Home for Purim," which becomes an Oscar dark horse.

With the mix of real films competing for the award, who knows? It just might be possible.

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