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Greenfield: Castro outlasting them all

Cuban leader has played an oversized role in American politics

By Jeff Greenfield
CNN Senior Analyst

Castro confers with his brother Raul during a Cuban parliament session in 2003.

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NEW YORK (CNN) -- If age and illness are in fact ending Fidel Castro's reign, then nature will have accomplished something that 10 American presidents have tried and failed to do through a remarkable history that stretches back almost half a century.

It was in January 1959 when the 32-year-old Fidel Castro led his insurgents into Havana (Eisenhower was president, color TV and rock 'n' roll were almost brand new). He quickly assumed full control over Cuba's political and economic life, and aligned himself with the Soviet Union when the Cold War was in full bloom.

The U.S. responded with an embargo, then with the royally botched effort to overthrow Castro -- the Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.

A year later, when the Soviets put offensive nuclear missiles in Cuba, the world came as close as it ever had to World War III. Had President Kennedy not learned the lessons from the Bay of Pigs -- treat confident assessments of easy, passion-free conquest with great caution -- nuclear holocaust might very well have been the result.

Over the years, Cuba has repeatedly come to play an outsized, under-appreciated, role in American political affairs.

A few examples:

In the mid-'70s, CIA efforts to kill Castro helped trigger congressional hearings that greatly limited the CIA's power.

In 1980, a backlash in Arkansas over the handling of Cuban refugees cost Bill Clinton the governorship -- and almost ended his political life.

The attempt by the Reagan administration to stop another Cuba from emerging in Nicaragua convinced it to aid the "Contras" in defiance of Congress, and gave President Reagan his biggest political crisis.

In 2000, the fate of a young Cuban boy, Elian Gonzales, helped deliver tens of thousands of Cuban-American votes to Republican George W. Bush in Florida. Without that incident, Al Gore would almost certainly have won Florida -- and with it the White House.

Over the decades Cuban-American relations have, uniquely, remained frozen in time. China, once seen as a certain future enemy, is now an enthusiastic trading partner. Vietnam, with whom the U.S. fought a bloody, decade long war, now welcomes American investment and tourists. But Cuba remains off limits -- perhaps a testament to the Cuban-American voter.

As for Castro, his survival can be credited to a highly unusual mix of authoritarian rule -- no elections held, little if any dissent permitted -- and personal magnetism. One conservative publication once described Castro in Cold War days as the only Communist leader who could likely win a free election.

When the news came that Fidel Castro had transferred political power, there were celebrations in the streets of the Miami, Florida, neighborhood of Little Havana, reflecting the belief that his passing from the stage would mean a very different Cuba.

But when you remember that the power is now held by his brother Raul -- if anything more dogmatic than Fidel -- and remember the failed predictions of earlier years, those celebrations may be premature.

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