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Deadly Hurricane Wilma eyeing Florida

Downgraded to Category 4, storm prompts Keys evacuation

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Hurricane Wilma

11 p.m. ET Wednesday

Position of center: 235 miles (380 kilometers) southeast of Cozumel

Top sustained winds: 155 mph (250 kph)

Latitude: 18.1 north

Longitude: 84.3 west

Source: National Hurricane Center

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MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Wilma wobbled between Mexico and Cuba on Wednesday after exploding with record intensity earlier in the day, and its predicted path prompted authorities in Cuba and Florida to prepare evacuation orders.

The storm was downgraded to a Category 4 hurricane late Wednesday, but forecasters said it could regain strength and return to Category 5 status on Thursday.

Despite increasing uncertainty in the storm's predicted path, the director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami said people who might be in Wilma's path should not let down their guard.

"This is one of the more perplexing storms we've had to deal with this year," Max Mayfield said. "We're just going to have to watch it." (Watch Mayfield's warning about Wilma -- 6:33)

Mayfield earlier in the day warned the storm could result in many deaths and a tremendous storm surge where it eventually makes landfall.

"We had well over a thousand lives lost in [Hurricane] Katrina," he said. "If Wilma comes into the Florida coast as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, that potential for large loss of life is with us here with this hurricane."

Forecasters said the storm -- with sustained winds of 155 mph (250 kph) -- early Wednesday registered the lowest-recorded barometric pressure of any Atlantic basin hurricane in history -- an indication of its intensity.

A hurricane warning was in effect from San Felipe to Punta Allen on the Yucatan Peninsula, including Cozumel, the hurricane center said.

The head of Haiti's civil protection agency, Maria Alta Jean-Baptiste, told The Associated Press the storm's outer bands caused flooding and landslides that killed at least 11 people since Monday and forced at least 2,000 families from their homes.

As a tropical depression, Wilma already had been blamed for one death in Jamaica on Sunday, the AP reported.

Floridians stock up

While computer projections diverged over the course of the day, the prevailing prediction suggested Wilma could track west of Cuba and close to the tourist areas on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Friday afternoon.

It is then expected to curve eastward and head toward southwestern Florida.

Authorities in the Florida Keys said they would order a mandatory evacuation for all residents in effect for the Lower Keys by noon Thursday and the rest of Monroe County by 6 p.m.

County officials Wednesday ordered tourists to leave beginning at noon, closed state parks and lifted the toll on the bridge that connects the Keys with mainland Florida.

Forecasters said the Keys could start feeling tropical storm forces winds of 39 mph by late Saturday.

"If this one makes landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida, there will be a tremendous storm surge," Mayfield said.

"If it's a Category 4, we could easily have 15 to 20 feet near and south of where the center crosses the coast, with up to even 25 feet up into the bays and the rivers."

In Florida, a state that endured four hurricanes last year, some residents stocked up on supplies.

"It's not looking good. A Category 5 is not going to be a toy to play with," longtime resident Randy Hart told CNN affiliate WZVN while buying supplies at a store in Fort Myers on the southwest coast.

Residents in the Keys were already preparing to flee, with memories still fresh from Hurricane Katrina's devastation in Louisiana and Mississippi -- from a slow, traffic-plagued evacuation ahead of Hurricane Rita in Texas.

"I never stay in the Keys, even if it's Category 1," resident Alicia Bencomo told WSVN in Miami. "The road is too narrow. And you have the Gulf and you have the ocean, the Atlantic Ocean. And it will get together." (Full story)

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said Wednesday the state has already begun to pre-stage relief supplies, such as ice and water.

Pentagon officials said Wednesday the Navy has placed three ships on standby if Wilma makes landfall in the United States. They said the storm was still too far out to evacuate bases.

Path uncertain

Early Wednesday, the dozen or so computer models used by meteorologists had been in agreement, but by late in the afternoon they were predicting wildly divergent tracks, Mayfield said.

"This is a much lower confidence than we normally have" in hurricane forecasts, he said.

Mayfield said the storm is expected to slow in the Gulf, possibly weakening to Category 3 as it continues to fluctuate in strength.

"The good news here is this does seem to buy us a little more time," he said, warning that "even a Category 3 hurricane can cause considerable damage, and we don't want to let our guard down at all."

Wilma strengthened earlier Wednesday within a matter of a few hours -- at 1 a.m. ET, the hurricane center reported the storm had 150 mph winds, taking it from a Category 2 to a Category 4.

Just 90 minutes later, the center reported Wilma had maximum sustained winds of 175 mph and higher gusts.

As of 11 p.m. ET, the center of the storm was about 235 miles (380 kilometers) southeast of Cozumel. It was wobbling generally toward the west-northwest at nearly 7 mph (11 kph).

Hurricane-force winds extended outward about 70 miles (110 kilometers) from the eye.

Wilma was the third storm to reach Category 5 this year -- the others were Katrina and Rita -- and has tied records as the 12th hurricane and the 21st named storm in the Atlantic season.

Cuban hurricane watch

Cuba has issued a hurricane watch for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio and for the Isle of Youth, according to the hurricane center. (Caribbean braces)

Cuban authorities have already evacuated residents in the eastern part of the country after the outer bands of Wilma dumped heavy rain as it passed south of the island. More evacuations were expected in the western provinces.

The hurricane center said Cuba could get anywhere from 10 to 15 inches of rain from Wilma, with some areas getting socked with as much as 25 inches.

A stretch of the Honduran coast is under a tropical storm warning from the Nicaraguan border to Cabo Camaron -- as is Belize from the Mexican border to Belize City.

CNN's Chad Myers and Lucia Newman contributed to this report.