After elections -- what's next?
From Brian Todd
CNN
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Iraq finds itself rapt in the euphoria of democracy -- something it's clearly not used to.
But when celebrations simmer down, the realization may soon set in: This vote was one step in a drawn-out process.
"In a week or two, the members of a new assembly will be named, and then the process of forming a new inclusive government will begin," interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi said Monday.
Even if everything goes smoothly, this government will be in place only for about a year.
"The main requirement is negotiation within parties -- which won't be too hard -- about who should occupy the most senior positions. But then among parties, about how those positions should be distributed," says James Dobbins, an Iraq expert at the RAND Corp.
This vote -- when it's counted -- will determine the 275 members of a transitional national assembly. The assembly's first order of business will be to select a president and two vice presidents. This so-called presidential council will then appoint a prime minister.
"The prime minister will be in charge of day-to-day policy. Certainly as the system has functioned to date, Allawi, the prime minister, has been much more influential than the president," says Dobbins.
And the new boss may be the same as the old boss. Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is one of the stronger candidates.
This post of prime minister will almost certainly be filled by a Shiite, since that group is the majority and has the largest turnout.
Another prominent but controversial candidate is Ahmed Chalabi, the founder of the Iraqi National Congress and a prime mover behind the U.S. invasion, who's since fallen out with the Bush administration.
Analysts say the more ceremonial post of president will likely be filled by a Sunni or a Kurd.
Names circulated for that post include the current interim President Ghazi al-Yawar, a Sunni, Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani and senior statesmen Adnan Pachachi, a Sunni who spoke recently about the next important part of this process.
"The political parties and groups that did not take part in the election should be invited to participate in the writing of the permanent constitution," Pachachi said.
Work on the constitution begins as soon as the prime minister, president and vice presidents are in place.
The timetable calls for the draft of this document to be finished by August 15, a referendum on the constitution held by October 15 and, if the constitution is passed, new elections for a more permanent government on December 31.
