Unpredictable year for Golden Globes
Movie, TV awards to be given out Sunday
By Todd Leopold
CNN
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 CNN's Siblia Vargas takes a closer look at the 2005 Golden Globe nominees (January 14)
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(CNN) -- It's always a great party -- even if its influence is debatable.
The 62nd annual Golden Globe Awards, set for Sunday night, have become the second-biggest movie awards show after the granddaddy of them all, the Academy Awards (which will take place February 27).
This year's event will be watched to answer a handful of questions: "The Aviator" or "Million Dollar Baby"? Martin Scorsese or Clint Eastwood? Leonardo DiCaprio or Johnny Depp? (Or neither?)
And just how many awards will Jamie Foxx -- who has been nominated for three (best actor in a drama for "Ray," best supporting actor for "Collateral" and best actor in a TV miniseries for "Redemption") -- win?
But if you're trying to make early decisions for your Oscar pool, the Globes are hit or miss.
In the past, the Globes have paralleled the Academy Awards in picking best film winners. Of the last 10 best pictures, the Globes have honored every one except "Braveheart." (It helps that the Globes give out awards in two best film categories -- drama and comedy/musical).
But recently the Oscars haven't matched the Globe picks for best actor and actress -- even with the dual drama and comedy/musical slots.
In the past few years, the Globes have gone with Jack Nicholson ("About Schmidt"), Russell Crowe ("A Beautiful Mind"), Sissy Spacek ("In the Bedroom"), Tom Hanks ("Cast Away"), Denzel Washington ("The Hurricane") and Jim Carrey ("The Truman Show"), while Oscar, respectively, has picked Adrien Brody ("The Pianist"), Washington ("Training Day"), Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"), Crowe ("Gladiator"), Kevin Spacey ("American Beauty") and Roberto Benigni ("Life Is Beautiful").
Benigni wasn't even nominated for a Golden Globe (which -- for some critics -- is a mark in the Globes' favor).
But then, the Golden Globes can be rather idiosyncratic. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the organization of about 90 journalists that handles the awards, probably will never live down giving a best newcomer award to Pia Zadora for her performance in 1981's "Butterfly."
However, they do know how to put on a show. The Golden Globes attract the top names, dispense with the dance numbers and offer free alcohol to the attendant throng, which makes for a very good time indeed.
And they do help provide a snapshot of the Oscar horse race, which this year has a number of favorites but no clear front-runner.
Whose night is it?
Movie fans will be paying particularly close attention to best drama, which pits "The Aviator" against "Million Dollar Baby," "Finding Neverland," "Hotel Rwanda," "Kinsey" and "Closer."
Many awards watchers expect "The Aviator," Scorsese's epic-size biography of Howard Hughes' Hollywood years starring DiCaprio, to take the prize.
" 'The Aviator' is the type of epic movie Globe voters go for," film writer Pete Hammond told Goldderby.com, the awards-handicapping Web site.
However, Hammond added, he believes "Finding Neverland" -- directed by Marc Forster ("Monster's Ball") and starring Depp as "Peter Pan" writer J.M. Barrie -- will win. "I just have a hunch that 'Neverland' is a movie they -- and the Academy, for that matter -- just loved," he said.
 Jamie Foxx is nominated for three acting awards, including best actor in a musical or comedy for "Ray." | |
Entertainment Weekly's Jessica Shaw agrees with Hammond. "I'm going out on a limb here because I think it's a sentimental favorite," she said on CNN's "American Morning."
Others are siding with Eastwood's "Million Dollar Baby," about a female boxer (Hilary Swank) molded into a winner by a reticent gym boss (Eastwood) and his ex-boxer colleague (Morgan Freeman).
"It's going to be 'Million Dollar Baby's' night because everybody loves Clint Eastwood and everybody loves what happened to Hilary Swank's character," said CNN pop culture correspondent Toure on "American Morning."
Observers are in more agreement when it comes to comedy/musical, a category featuring "Sideways," "Ray," "The Incredibles," "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" and "The Phantom of the Opera."
"Sideways" has dominated critics' polls, having been named best film of 2004 by the New York, Boston and Los Angeles film critics and earning almost uniformly excellent reviews. Goldderby.com makes it a 4-5 favorite; the closest competitor is "The Incredibles," at 5-2.
Also considered a heavy favorite is Foxx, whose performance as Ray Charles in "Ray" has been lauded even by critics who thought the film was weak. "Is anyone else running but Foxx?" asked USA Today's Scott Bowles on Goldderby.com. (For the record, Foxx's competition is "Beyond the Sea's" Kevin Spacey, "Eternal Sunshine's" Carrey, "Sideways'" Paul Giamatti and "De-Lovely's" Kevin Kline.
Heavyweights Eastwood and Scorsese
|  Javier Bardem is considered a front-runner for his performance in "The Sea Inside." |
Other acting categories are up for grabs. Goldderby.com gives the edge to Javier Bardem ("The Sea Inside") for best actor in a drama, but other commentators have favored DiCaprio, Depp or Don Cheadle ("Hotel Rwanda"). The fifth nominee, "Kinsey's" Liam Neeson, is the longest shot.
In the best actress-drama category, Swank is considered the bare front-runner over Imelda Staunton, who played an English abortionist in "Vera Drake." Best actress-comedy/musical is also tight: The race is expected to come down to Annette Bening ("Being Julia") and Kate Winslet ("Eternal Sunshine").
And then there's best director, expected to be a two-person contest between two venerable names: Scorsese, the New York cineaste whose recent films, including "The Aviator," have veered away from his gritty roots to epic aspirations; and Eastwood, the longtime Hollywood hand who's stuck to his guns as a director, with work ranging from jazz biography ("Bird") to affecting crime drama ("Mystic River") to revisionist Western (1992's Oscar-winning best picture, "Unforgiven").
"This feels like Martin Scorsese's big year," The Associated Press' David Germain told Goldderby.com.
"Eastwood has his groove -- he's in touch with his soul and his artistry," counters Us magazine's Thelma Adams.
Well, we're not even going to start on the television awards, which are also part of the Golden Globes ceremony and are equally well contested this year. (However, "Desperate Housewives" is already getting its due -- it's up for best comedy, and took three of the five slots in the best actress category.)
But one thing that everybody can agree on: Robin Williams, who is being given the Cecil B. DeMille Award for career achievement, will be wacky. After all, he's at the Golden Globes, and that means he's probably having a very good time.
The show will air at 8 p.m. ET Sunday on NBC.
