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PALO ALTO, California -- As evidenced by President Bush's speech Thursday, Hurricane Katrina already is dramatically changing U.S. politics.

While you'll likely be able to see some of the changes easily and clearly, others may take a year or three to truly emerge.

For example, from a policy perspective, Katrina is likely to do what the 9/11 Commission could not do: get Congress really focused on making homeland security more than just pork-barrel politics.

From finally coordinating emergency first responders to altering homeland security funding formulas, legislators fearful of Katrina-like criticism in the 2006 elections are likely to implement as many as a half dozen of the 9/11 Commission's major recommendations.

To date, after more than a year, Congress has implemented only a handful of the Commission's 41 major recommendations.

Helping the chronically poor

In the aftermath of Katrina, major and more comprehensive approaches to helping the chronically poor -- both conservative and liberal solutions -- may also emerge.

From truly comprehensive K-12 education programs to practical inner city job training and new home ownership initiatives, Bush may usher in a new era of "compassionate conservatism" to try to help address the chronic poverty that Katrina exposed.

What may be most interesting is that the new Bush partner in proposing and passing such bipartisan measures may not be the liberal lion Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts (Bush's previous partner on bipartisan Medicare and education reform), but perhaps the Democrats' newest political sensation, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

That unexpected relationship between the hobbled president and a rising young star (who is also a former inner city social worker and law professor) could yield innovative policy gains for the powerless and political dividends for both men.

Executives in politics

Across the country, Katrina also is likely to dramatically increase the number of business executives who run for and win major political office.

Indeed, the problems in New Orleans -- from the failure to improve the levees to poor management of an emergency situation -- are likely to make clean and competent government one of the buzz phrases of 2006 elections.

Attractive outsiders with a credible background in managing complex businesses and at least the perception of being a reformer are likely to do exceptionally well, not just in gubernatorial and mayoral races, but in legislative races as well.

And while the memory of Katrina will likely lead to a significant increase in Mike Bloomberg-type business candidates, some public officials with highly credible management expertise also will benefit in 2006 and beyond. Did someone say Rudy Giuliani in 2008?

Impact on African-American politics

On a more specific but perhaps less visible level, Katrina also is likely to significantly impact African-American politics over the next decade.

While recent polls show a significant split in racial perception of the government's response, what the polls do not register is the level of intensity that many African-Americans felt as they watched the floating bodies, read former First Lady Barbara Bush's comments about the evacuees, and saw the notorious contrasting looting photos (one white couple, one black man).

Indeed, it is likely that Katrina will prove to be a "Rodney King moment" for many African-Americans -- or an "Emmett Till moment" for those who can remember that earlier scandal of the 1950s.

Put simply, Katrina underscored the deepest fear of many African-Americans -- that no matter what gains they make or what America's leaders say, when the rubber meets the road they are not and will not be considered equally important humans in the eyes of the U.S. government.

Thus, in 2006 and beyond, while it probably will not be heavily invoked in mainstream television commercials, the mere mention of "Katrina" or the looting photos or Barbara Bush's comments in African-American churches or at African-American rallies is likely to send a red-hot signal to black voters that they must register and vote in large numbers, or risk getting sub-par treatment even when the world is watching.

If such massive black mobilization results from this controversial and tragic event, it could be analogous to the female mobilization that dramatically changed the U.S. Senate following the Anita Hill/Clarence Thomas hearings in 1991, or the Latino mobilization in California following immigration battles in the mid-90s that turned that once swing state into the bluest of blue republics.

Appointing key public officials

Finally, like major natural disasters before, including the Galveston flood of 1900, Katrina is likely to change how we appoint a variety of key public officials.

While political cronyism will never go away completely (or perhaps even significantly), the "Michael Brown lesson" is likely to play out not only at FEMA, but in the appointment of wide variety of sensitive emergency posts.

In particular, from state emergency directors to ambassadors in potentially volatile countries, more major appointments (at least in the short term) are likely to be reserved for the truly qualified.

Moreover, over the next year, many of those who currently hold appointment but who could become a Michael Brown-type liability if exposed, will likely quietly resign or be replaced.

So while the French Quarter may reopen very soon, Hurricane Katrina's political winds are likely to be felt for years to come.

A very political hurricane

Katrina is dramatically changing U.S. politics.

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