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 Arnold's political thriller
 California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger RELATEDFEEDBACKYOUR E-MAIL ALERTSPALO ALTO, California (CNN) -- Arnold Schwarzenegger's announcement last week that California will hold a special election this November may turn out to be the biggest political thriller of the year. From redistricting and tenure for school teachers to prescription drugs from Canada, the November 8 election will be packed with major policy issues with national implications. Voters may also get to weigh in on as many as four other major policy issues including teenage abortion, union political fundraising, a significant budget spending cap, and the partial re-regulation of the electricity industry (remember the California blackouts?). Special elections during off years usually address one or perhaps two moderately important issues. But Schwarzenegger and other California political players are inviting voters to participate in some of the most wide-ranging policy changes in a generation. National reverberations?Given California's long history of launching political policy movements from taxes and immigration to gay marriage and stem cells, it is likely the results of this special election may be felt by not only California residents, but also by mothers in Manhattan, students in Seattle, and fathers in Fargo. In recognition of the mammoth importance of the election, various political entities, including the governor plan to raise and spend a record $250 million or more on the election. The amount is more than John Kerry, John Edwards, Howard Dean and the other candidates spent during the 2004 Democratic presidential primaries (at least the competitive part.) The combination of the quarter of a billion dollars and meaty policy issues holds big political implications no matter who "wins" this special election. If Schwarzenegger winsIf Schwarzenegger wins -- he is backing the initiatives on redistricting, spending caps and teacher tenure -- he is likely to turn around his record low poll numbers and cruise towards re-election in 2006 as a red governor in the ultimate blue state. If that happens and a Democrat like Hillary Clinton were to take the White House in 2008, a Republican-controlled Congress could suddenly get excited about a constitutional amendment to allow immigrants to run for president. If Schwarzenegger wins, he will also be seen as a policy leader nationally, having gotten blue voter support for red issues at a time when President Bush and Washington Republicans are struggling to gain Democratic support for major initiatives like Social Security reform and energy policy change. Finally, a Schwarzenegger "win" also could set off a tidal wave of voter initiatives in the 2006 and 2008 elections and make this form of policymaking more common than ever. In November 2004, voters pulled the lever on more than 160 ballot initiatives along with voting for president. If California's high profile special election leads to passage of major new laws, 2006 could see nearly 300 voter initiatives on a wide range of issues across the country including redistricting, health care, housing, Internet taxes and more. If Schwarzenegger losesHowever, if Schwarzenegger loses unequivocally in November, it could mark the effective end of one of the most glittery political careers in years. Like another former strongman governor, Minnesota's Jesse Ventura, the Terminator could quickly become a one-term wonder. Schwarzenegger's failure could open opportunity for California Democrats including the two announced candidates for governor, state treasurer Phil Angelides and state controller Steve Westly. It could also draw new competitors into the arena including perhaps one of California's two high profile Democratic mayors, Gavin Newsom of San Francisco or the newly elected Antonio Villaraigosa of Los Angeles. The biggest winner or loser in the California race on a national scale could be the labor unions. Not only do several of Schwarzenegger's measures directly attack their interests (teacher tenure and union fundraising rule changes, to name two), but the California election comes at a time when unions are split nationally and overall memberships are down. The special election has caused unions around the country to work together to thwart Schwarzenegger's initiatives. If they succeed, it could reenergize their political efforts after the devastating 2004 presidential election defeat and offer a blue print for working together successfully in 2006 and beyond. PostscriptSeveral months ago, I suggested that arts and culture magazines like Vanity Fair would be important political players to watch this year. And sure enough it was Vanity Fair that broke the Deep Throat story last month. Keep your eye on these periodicals, as well as the increasing number of young editorial columnists in major newspapers who, like The New York Times' Frank Rich, come from the arts and culture pages of the paper. 
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