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Mark Shields is a nationally known columnist and commentator. |
The Natural: John Edwards six months later
ANNAPOLIS, Maryland (Creators Syndicate) -- In introducing former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Maryland State Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller brought the Annapolis dinner crowd of 600 to their feet announcing that, last year, the defeated Democratic vice-presidential nominee had " made us all proud to be Democrats."
Edwards then delivered a new speech and passed the tough test every politician faces at every public appearance: To win a bigger hand from the crowd on the way out -- after the speech -- than the one received on the way in. A reverse audience reaction is invariably the unmistakable symptom of a candidacy with a bleak future.
He is asked often about the health of his wife-advisor, Elizabeth, whose breast cancer was diagnosed the day after Edwards' defeat. He reports that she "is doing well" But it is obvious that her treatment of chemotherapy, surgery and then radiation have him concerned.
If politics were like baseball, the 2004 scouting report on John Edwards would have branded him a Natural, endowed with a remarkable ability to connect personally with crowds of strangers almost anywhere, superior stamina, a quick mind and an exceptional ability to express himself in emotionally persuasive language.
But in spite of those gifts, if he does make another White House run in 2008 -- in a one-on-one interview he was adamantly noncommittal -- John Edwards will confront exceptional obstacles.
History offers next to no encouragement to defeated VP nominees who have attempted to convert their campaign media exposure into a presidential nomination.
The following defeated vice presidential nominees sought and lost the next presidential nomination of their party, beginning in 1960: Republican Henry Cabot Lodge, Democrat Edmund Muskie, Democrat Sargent Shriver, Republican Bob Dole and Democrat Joe Lieberman. No losing VP nominee has won the presidential nomination in the next election cycle.
In my judgment, absent 9-11, John Edwards would have been his party's presidential nominee. He was that good. But the attack on the United States and the Bush administration's decision -- with Edwards' enthusiastic backing -- to invade Iraq meant that voters in 2004 prized a president who was also a convincing commander in chief.
By his heroic Vietnam service, John Kerry established those credentials and the perception of electability Democratic primary voters coveted. An out-of-office Edwards must fill out his thin national security resume. There are hints about some future commission, but nothing yet definite.
That Edwards has not made a decision to run was evident at the Annapolis dinner sponsored by Progressive Maryland, a major force pushing for a living wage. A quorum of major Maryland Democrats, including candidates for governor and U.S. senator were in attendance.
But as the personable Edwards worked the room at the pre-dinner reception, he had no savvy political aide at his elbow to record names, numbers or offers of help. That failure meant there would be no follow-up to take advantage of the positive reaction to Edwards' speech.
That speech is indeed different. Poverty and the struggles of working Americans who are still poor are his passion.
Edwards tells about Loretta: "I can still feel her handshake -- strong like a truck driver. She spent 14 years working at a wash house -- working for the minimum wage -- earning a little more than $200 a week. She would always try to do better, but no one would give her a chance."
Loretta "kept pushing ... got her GED and a loan. And now she owns her own pizza franchise." How many people work there? "She said that there are 'eight of us.' Not, seven people work for me. There are 'eight of us.' ... You could hear in her voice the respect she has for other people."
Nearly 70 years ago, FDR told Americans: "The measure of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much, but whether we provide enough to those who have too little."
John Edwards offers a different wrinkle: "We have a moral responsibility to help those around us who are struggling. ... How we treat people in their time of their need is the test of our character." To those struggling, "we see you, we hear you, we embrace you, we are going to lift you up."
It would be a lot different message from the last winning Democratic presidential campaign, which championed school uniforms and the V-chip for television sets.
