Incumbent in trouble in Los Angeles mayoral election
No clear winner expected; runoff would be May 17
From John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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NEW YORK (CNN) -- Los Angeles Mayor James Hahn heads into Tuesday's vote narrowly trailing two Democratic challengers, who have splintered a fragile voting bloc Hahn assembled four years ago that propelled him to victory.
Struggling to avoid becoming the first Los Angeles mayor to lose a re-election bid since 1973, Hahn is now suffering missteps he made during his first term that alienated those constituencies.
Specifically, analysts say, Hahn angered African-Americans by helping block the reappointment of Police Chief Bernard Parks, who is black and is running for mayor this year.
And he weakened his ties to the San Fernando Valley by campaigning strongly to defeat a ballot measure to allow the community to secede.
A Los Angeles Times poll released last week showed that city councilman Antonio Villaraigosa, seeking to become the city's first Latino mayor in modern times, leads the 12-candidate, nonpartisan field with support from 24 percent of the poll respondents.
Former state Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg, enjoying a late surge among Jewish, elderly and conservative voters, was backed by 21 percent; Hahn, 20 percent.
Parks, who despite strong support among blacks has suffered from poor fund-raising and campaign mismanagement, took just 11 percent. State Sen. Richard Alarcon received 5 percent.
Perhaps most alarming for Hahn, nearly two-thirds of likely voters said Los Angeles needs to move in a new direction. That sentiment was even stronger among African-American and Valley voters, former Hahn loyalists, who are now turning to Hertzberg or Villaraigosa.
If the Times poll is accurate, Hahn would lose outright tomorrow, failing to advance to a two-way runoff scheduled for May 17.
The race took a decidedly negative turn Thursday when Hahn unleashed a flurry of new TV ads against his top challengers for seeking the early prison release of a "convicted crack cocaine dealer." The ad resembles a controversial spot Hahn ran against Villaraigosa four years ago, which leveled similar charges.
Villaraigosa responded with an ad hitting Hahn for "corruption" and "scandals" at City Hall. Hertzberg struck a lighter note, airing an ad featuring himself as a giant whose huge black shoe crushes a TV airing the Hahn spot.
If the mayor does manage to take first or second place on Tuesday, Hahn backers believe he'll likely win a second term. In 2001, his supporters say, Hahn won the runoff against Villaraigosa because he was everyone's second choice.
This year, either against the liberal Villaraigosa or Hertzberg, who has been playing up his ties to Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Hahn could once again be that second choice.
But others say that history won't repeat itself.
Hahn won the 2001 runoff because he drew votes from an usual coalition of black and white conservatives, they say, and Hahn's support this year from African-Americans is relatively weak -- in part, because he helped block the reappointment of police Parks.
On Sunday, the Los Angeles Times endorsed both Hertzberg and Villaraigosa, saying that either candidate "would be a more dynamic leader than Hahn, whose leadership has been lackluster."
