N. Irish peace pact under review
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Rev Ian Paisley's hardline party won most seats in November's elections.
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BELFAST, Northern Ireland (Reuters) -- Britain and Ireland launch a make-or-break review of Northern Ireland's 1998 Good Friday Agreement on Tuesday, but analysts doubt the talks will result in a quick revival of the stalled peace process.
London and Dublin are hoping to coax rival Protestant and Catholic parties into a deal to restore the power-sharing government at the heart of the landmark peace accord which has been suspended for over a year.
"I would not be optimistic, that's a definite statement," said Paul Bew, Professor of Irish Politics at Queen's University, in Belfast.
The regional assembly and administration set up under the Good Friday deal aimed to end three decades of violence, which claimed more than 3,600 lives, by sharing power between Protestant unionists and Catholic Irish nationalists.
But endless rows stemming from the reluctance of unionists -- who favor retaining ties with Britain -- to sit in government with the Irish Republican Army's political ally Sinn Fein have soured relations between rival parties.
The IRA declared a ceasefire in its long campaign against British rule in 1997, but unionists are unhappy that the guerrilla group retains weapons stockpiles. Republicans say the IRA has partially disarmed and want Britain to scale back its military presence.
The instability has resulted in the home rule institutions being suspended four times in their brief existence -- most recently in October 2002 amid allegations of IRA spying. Since then British ministers have run the provincial government.
On Tuesday, parties that won seats in assembly elections last November will gather at Stormont, the seat of government in east Belfast, for the opening session of the review, which is expected to last around three months.
Parties split
Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams says the review alone cannot break the deadlock, which he blames on hardline Protestants' unwillingness to share power with Catholics.
David Trimble, head of the moderate Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), says reviewing the workings of the agreement misses the point, arguing the sole focus should be on forcing the IRA to disarm.
The last, failed, attempt to restore power-sharing three months ago focused on efforts to strike a deal between Trimble and Adams.
This time finding common ground will be even harder, after the Democratic Unionist Party of hardline cleric Ian Paisley ousted Trimble's UUP as the leading Protestant party at the November poll.
Paisley's party -- which, unlike Trimble's, never supported the Good Friday deal -- refuses even to speak to Sinn Fein, the largest Catholic party, because of its links to the IRA.
"Tone matters in politics, and while some believe the DUP is using an aggressive tone to mask a softening of position, the tone with which the DUP addresses Sinn Fein, as terrorists and so on, makes it harder for Sinn Fein to come across," said Bew.
"It's a simple point, but it's true, and so all the signs are that Sinn Fein don't expect to do business with the DUP."
While both main Catholic parties insist they will not re-negotiate the key planks of the Good Friday deal, the DUP is demanding a radical overhaul of the agreement.
Later in the week, the party is due to present its proposals on a scaled-back model for home rule, which would not require political enemies to sit in government together, to British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
"The DUP feel they have a formula for getting devolved government up and running even before there's a deal," said one British source. "The problem is, will nationalists accept it? At the moment it seems unlikely."
Copyright 2004
Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
