Georgia vote a test of stability
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A pre-election poster of top presidential candidate Mikhail Saakashvili.
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TBILISI, Georgia (AP) -- Hundreds of election observers are to fan out across Georgia Sunday for the presidential election seen as a test of Georgia's commitment to democracy.
The election comes just six weeks after Eduard Shevardnadze stepped down from the presidency amid massive protests over fraud in the November parliamentary elections.
The sparkplug of the protests, Mikhail Saakashvili, is the overwhelming favorite among the five candidates. Six candidates had registered, but one, nationalist Zurab Kelekhsahvili, withdrew on Saturday, calling the election "immoral."
Although who will win does not appear to be in question, how the elections proceed will be watched closely as a harbinger for the country post-Shevardnadze, observers said.
Saakashvili and other politicians who coalesced to drive out Shevardnadze are generally Western-oriented and have declared their commitment to democracy.
"This is the first real test," Craig Jenness, head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe observer mission, said Saturday. "Are they what they purport to be?"
The elections are not expected to go off without problems. Georgia's chaotic record-keeping has made preparing comprehensive voter lists impossible and the total number of eligible voters is unknown -- a potentially touchy issue because the constitution requires a 50-percent turnout for the election to be declared valid.
"There is a very real danger that if you stay home, the elections will be declared spoiled," Saakashvili said Saturday night on state television in an appeal to voters.
The turnout question is especially complicated in the province of Adzharia, whose leader Aslan Abashidze is a vehement opponent of Saakashvili. Abashidze this week backed off a threat to keep the province's polling stations closed on Sunday, but has called on his backers not to vote.
Because of that last-minute decision to allow voting, the number of eligible in Adzharia is difficult to determine even in broad terms. The Georgian elections commission is considering regarding the number of people who in Adzharia vote as the same as the number of eligible voters.
Observers also will be keeping close watch on whether Saakashvili's supporters are overzealous in trying to ensure his presumed victory.
"The last thing you want for your own credibility is to rush into something just as bad," said Roy Reeve, the OSCE's ambassador to Georgia.
In Washington, U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli issued a comment that could be both optimistic and a demand: "We're looking forward to a clean and peaceful election that represents the will of the Georgian people."
Mark Mullen of the U.S.-based National Democratic Institute, which has worked closely with Saakashvili and other Georgian politicians, said he does not expect abuses by Saakashvili's supporters.
"I don't think there's much of an intent to subvert the process. Conveniently, there's no incentive for them to subvert it," he said.
The OSCE scrambled after the announcement of the new election to mount a variety of programs aimed at encouraging transparency and fairness, including advertisements encouraging voter registration. It also is providing funds to pay polling station workers, which Reeve said is the first time precinct workers will have been paid in Georgia.
The organization is bringing in some 450 observers from its member states. The Commonwealth of Independent States, the loose grouping of most former Soviet republics, also sent about 90 observers.
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