Security key in Indonesia vote?
From CNN Jakarta Bureau Chief Maria Ressa
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JAKARTA, Indonesia (CNN) -- After eight months of campaigning centered largely on personality, security issues could become a key factor in Indonesia's presidential election.
In Monday's vote, incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri will go head to head with her former security chief Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who nationwide polls predict will win by a landslide.
Yudhoyono has put security at the top of his campaign agenda, but analysts say his biggest draw is the electorate's dissatisfaction with Megawati's performance over the last three years.
Indonesia, the world's most populace Muslim nation, has been rocked by three major terrorist attacks in two years.
The most recent attack was a suicide bombing last week outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta that killed nine Indonesians.
The attack was blamed on Jemaah Islamiya (JI) -- which intelligence experts say is the regional arm of al Qaeda -- as was an attack last year on a hotel in Jakarta and one in Bali two years ago that killed 202 people.
Wahyu Ardianto was hit by shards from the Marriott bomb last year, and when the bomb at the Australian embassy exploded he helped evacuate about 500 people from a nearby building.
When he got to the site, he saw a dismembered leg in front of him.
"I'm very scared. Why the bombing, every bombing place is very close with me."
Now he says his main concern with Monday's election is security.
But although they have pledged to get tough on terror, neither contender has condemned JI, which is banned by the United States.
Washington's policies in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East are highly unpopular among Indonesians.
A recent poll shows the electorate, and its leaders, are in a high-level of denial about the existence of the al Qaeda-linked group.
The group -- whose name translates as "the Muslim community" -- has never been acknowledged officially, and even after last week's bombing the majority of Indonesians do not believe it exists.
If you cannot name it, analysts say, it does not exist.
Partly because of elections and Muslim sensitivities, politicians have chosen not to alienate, but to court, the hardline vote.
"I think politicians are still unwilling to confront this issue directly," political analyst Jeffrey Winters says.
"I think the answer is to say no matter what these people claim to be, they are not us."
Megawati has been trumpeting her economic record, and although Indonesians say their main concerns are bread and butter issues, the timing of the Jakarta attack could go against her on Monday.
Polls give Yudhoyono a massive 60 percent lead, and although Megawati has been out and talked to people -- something she rarely does -- analysts say it may be too late.
The run-off is taking place after none of the five contenders in July polls won more than 50 percent of the votes.
