Howard facing major poll challenge
By Grant Holloway, CNN Sydney
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New ALP leader Mark Latham has made an impressive start.
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SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- John Howard's conservative coalition government could face a significant battle to retain power in Australia in elections later this year, according to the latest round of opinion polling.
The government, which will be shooting for a record fourth consecutive term, is now trailing a resurgent Australian Labor Party (ALP) which is riding high under the new leadership of populist lawmaker Mark Latham.
A Herald-AC Neilsen poll released Wednesday shows the ALP would have won a 26-seat majority in parliament had a general election been held in the last weekend of February.
This represents a dramatic turnaround in fortunes for Howard, who less than a year ago was commanding record popular support as Australian leader.
According to the Neilsen poll, the ALP is now winning 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote (the most accurate measure of electoral success in Australia) compared with 46 per cent for Howard's coalition.
A Newspoll survey held a week earlier is less decisive, however, showing the two main forces tied in popularity with 50 percent of the vote apiece.
Howard has until March next year to call an election, but the political calendar dictates that the most likely poll date will be in October or November this year.
While few political observers are writing off Howard -- a wily 30-year veteran in Canberra -- the popularity of the youthful Latham is causing concern among government strategists.
Before gaining the ALP leadership, Latham had a mixed political reputation, being best known for his colorful language and a violent confrontation with a taxicab driver.
But within weeks of securing the top opposition job, Latham had scored a number of political victories, most notably forcing the government to adopt his proposals to reform the overly generous parliamentary superannuation schemes.
The latest poll shows 62 percent public approval of Latham's performance as Opposition leader, the highest rating for an ALP leader since 1983.
Howard will be hoping to counter Latham's populism by pointing to the government's solid economic record and experienced leadership in an era of global insecurity.
Australia's economy has grown steadily under the coalition's stewardship. (Full story)
Howard will also highlight Latham's intemperate past, including the Labor leader's labelling of U.S. President George W. Bush as "the most incompetent and dangerous U.S. president in living history".
The closeness of the coalition relationship to the Bush administration could also be a negative factor for the government however, with Howard having to defend his decision to send troops and equipment to the invasion of Iraq. (New Canberra WMD probe)
Howard refused to comment on the poll results Wednesday but Treasurer Peter Costello, the heir apparent to Howard, attacked Latham as being weak on policies.
"He is enjoying a honeymoon, there is no doubt about that," Costello told a news conference.
"But the test for Latham will come when he has to put down a policy."
