Argentine leader's nationalism popular, risky
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) -- Likening a meeting with U.S. President George W. Bush to a boxing match and saying the nation will no longer kowtow to inept IMF officials -- that is today's diplomacy in Argentina as President Nestor Kirchner boosts his support at home.
Kirchner, just seven months in power, has made seasoned diplomats cringe with speeches painting a picture of a bankrupt South American nation battling imperialists.
In his latest outburst while visiting slum dwellers in crippling summer heat, a sweaty Kirchner said he "will win by a knockout" in a meeting with Bush next week -- a signal he will not cave into any U.S. pressure to pay more foreign debt or harden his stance on Communist Cuba.
His speeches reflect genuine views of a left-of-center president with a disdain for officialdom -- a stance that could boomerang as he seeks aid from institutions like the International Monetary Fund to prop up an economic recovery.
Kirchner, who once left a regional summit early to be with old friends in Patagonia, may think the risk is worth it. Eager to stay popular and avoid the fate of his ousted predecessors, he has tapped into latent Argentine nationalism and anger at foreign powerbrokers like the IMF, widely blamed for the economy's depression in 2002.
"Other presidents showed respect to Washington. And look what happened to us," said Silvina Fuentes, a student.
A December poll gave Kirchner an 80 percent approval rating. The main reason was his IMF stance -- beating his anti-corruption and job creation efforts. A quarter of respondents said that was why they gave him high marks.
A presidential obsession with popularity is nothing new. But with Kirchner, it is not just winning a next election. It is about surviving in a nation where two presidents in two years were ousted by political intrigue and street protests.
A political outsider from a remote Patagonian province who came to power with only 22 percent of votes, Kirchner has needed to win over voters early on. It is a strategy to counterbalance a Congress and powerbrokers whose allegiance to him is tied fundamentally by his popularity.
"As a political outsider, voter support is his column of power," said pollster Ricardo Rouvier.
Some analysts say Kirchner has spent the first months winning over voters -- like campaigning over military rights abuses --- rather than tackling hard economic problems.
However, courting a fickle electorate on issues of international diplomacy could irk powerful institutions that have so far supported Argentina's effort to recover.
Last year the IMF awarded Argentina, cut off from most capital markets after a record sovereign debt default in 2002, a $12.5 billion lifeline. Analyst said Bush's support was instrumental in softening a skeptical fund to make the deal.
But a tough stance with private creditors, insisting they get back only a quarter of $88 billion in debts owed to them, led the IMF to delay approving the latest aid payment.
"In 2003 Bush was flexible over the IMF and debt. This position could change, to Argentina's detriment," political analyst Rosendo Fraga said. "Kirchner is reinforcing Argentina's image of unpredictably," he added.
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