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 » 2006 Forecast  | Saffir-Simpson scale  |  Your stories

Above-normal hurricane season forecast


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A satellite image of Hurricane Isabel as it made landfall on the U.S. East Coast September 17, 2003
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(CNN) -- U.S. hurricane forecasters Monday predicted a busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season based on a trend of above-normal activity during seven of the last nine seasons.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting for 12 to 15 tropical storms to form during the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Six to eight storms are predicted to become hurricanes with two to four storms developing into major hurricanes ranked as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength.

"NOAA's 2004 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 50 percent probability of an above-normal season, a 40 percent probability of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season," said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, director of the NOAA National Weather Service.

A Category 3 storm has winds between 111-130 mph and can cause extensive damage. The worst storm, a Category 5, has winds greater than 155 mph and can cause catastrophic damage.

Previous hurricane seasons similar to NOAA's forecast averaged two to three hurricanes that made landfall in the continental United States, and one to two hurricanes in the region around the Caribbean Sea.

NOAA's forecast is based on the likelihood that above-normal activity that began in 1995 will continue. Since 1995, the Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal except for the El Nino years of 1997 and 2002.

NOAA scientists are predicting conditions through July that are neutral for either an El Nino or La Nina to form with a likelihood of these conditions will continue through the peak August-October months of the hurricane season.

The forecast also cited other long-term climate patterns, including a continuation of warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures across the tropical Atlantic. The warmer waters are associated with circulation patterns that favor an above-normal hurricane season.

NOAA forecasters are predicting four to five tropical cyclones in the central Pacific Ocean, which is typical for the area. The central Pacific season also runs from June 1 to November 30.

The National Hurricane Center monitors the oceans and determines a weather disturbance is a tropical storm when its wind speeds are faster than 39 mph. The agency also names the tropical storm so that communication with the public about the storm is easier. A tropical storm is upgraded to a hurricane when its winds exceed 74 mph.

The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season produced 14 tropical storms, with seven becoming hurricanes. Of the seven, Hurricanes Fabian, Isabel and Kate developed into major hurricanes.

The Tropical Meteorology Project, based at Colorado State University, issued a separate forecast in April, predicting 14 named storms will develop with eight developing into hurricanes with wind speeds above 74 mph. The project also predicts that three of the hurricanes will be storms above category 3 hurricanes.

"The recent upturn in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity which began in 1995 is expected to continue in 2004. We anticipate an above average probability for Atlantic basin major hurricanes and U.S. major hurricane landfall," according to the forecast written by William M. Gray, a professor of atmospheric science, and Philip J. Klotzbach, a research associate.

The TMP report also estimates the risk of a major storm -- a category 3 or higher -- hitting the U.S. coastline. The researchers estimated the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, has a 48 percent chance of have a major storm make landfall while the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, has a 38 percent of chance of seeing a major hurricane. The researchers predicted an above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.


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