Will the new year bring a new job market?
CEOs expected to step up hiring in first half of 2005
By Matt Ferguson
CEO, CareerBuilder.com
Editor's Note: CNN.com has a business partnership with CareerBuilder.com, which serves as the exclusive provider of job listings and services to CNN.com.
After enduring a deflating recession, a stall in business growth and rampant downsizing, the U.S. experienced a rejuvenation in economic performance in 2004. Most recent reports show continued GDP expansion, an increase in business investment and consumer spending, a decline in energy costs and 15 consecutive months of job creation.
The U.S. has added over 2.5 million jobs since last September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Looking forward, the University of Michigan's U.S. Economic Outlook for 2005-2006 predicts that 4.4 million more jobs will be created in the next two years.
CEOs surveyed by the Business Roundtable are expecting to step up hiring activity in the first half of 2005. Fifty percent say they will increase capital expenditures and 40 percent expect employment at their locations to rise during this time.
To gain further insight into employment expectations, CareerBuilder.com surveyed more than 2,500 workers -- 1,000 of whom were hiring managers -- for its 2005 Employment Forecast completed in December. Nearly 15 percent of the participating hiring managers say they plan to add 200 or more new faces to their offices in 2005 to expand operations, increase productivity and enhance customer service. One-in-ten expect to recruit between 50 and 100 workers. While 66 percent will be recruiting for newly created positions, 34 percent will be replacing workers who left voluntarily or involuntarily.
Timeline for hiring
More than one-third of hiring managers say they will do the majority of their hiring for the year in the first quarter. Forty-five percent anticipate increasing their staffs from the fourth quarter 2004 to the first quarter 2005; only 12 percent will decrease them.
From a regional perspective, the South is leading in the percent of hiring managers expecting to build up their staffs quarter over quarter:
South: 49 percentWest: 48 percentMidwest: 45 percentNortheast: 38 percentTop jobs
Workers looking for new opportunities can find them in a variety of industries and fields. While old standbys such as healthcare have added more than 300,000 jobs this year, what is even more encouraging is other areas that have experienced a considerable decline in employment are starting to come back. Manufacturing added over 80,000 jobs from February through May, according to the BLS. In the latter half of the year, CareerBuilder.com saw a 15 percent increase in information technology jobs posted on the site.
The top areas hiring managers plan to recruit for in 2005 include:
Customer serviceSalesHealth careRetailAccounting/FinanceAdministrative/ClericalSegments being targeted
Hiring managers are planning to recruit workers of different backgrounds, age groups and experience levels. Recognizing the impact of diversity on business performance and the bottom line, three-in-ten hiring managers report that diverse candidates will comprise one-fourth or more of their new hires for salaried and hourly positions.
Hourly workers make up the largest segment of the workforce. It's not surprising that nearly half of hiring managers expect hourly workers to make up 50 percent or more of their new hires.
Hiring managers will also be targeting the younger end of the workforce. Eighty-eight percent of hiring managers say they will recruit new college graduates and 52 percent plan to recruit high school students.
Job changes
Unemployed workers and those dissatisfied with their jobs are eager to take advantage of a stronger job market. Forty-three percent are planning to change jobs in 2004 with 24 percent planning to do so within the first six months. Data from comScore Media Metrix shows that 11 million people on average are looking for jobs online every week.
More workers in the West will be polishing their resumes in the hopes of landing a new job opportunity. Forty-six percent of workers in the West plan to change jobs in 2005, compared to 42 percent of workers in the Northeast, South and Midwest.
Looking at specific industries and job functions, hospitality, retail and sales are in the lead in the percent of workers projecting job changes for the new year. Government workers are the least likely to change jobs amongst those measured:
Hospitality: 59 percentSales: 51 percentRetail: 47 percentAccounting/Finance: 44 percentHealth care: 39 percentInformation technology: 39 percentGovernment: 35 percent
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