The Republican National Convention
By Wolf Blitzer
CNN
NEW YORK (CNN) -- The Democrats had their week in Boston. Now, it's the Republicans' turn in New York. The political stakes are enormous. That's because this is shaping up potentially as such an incredibly close contest -- perhaps even a repeat of what happened four years ago.
Polls show that most Americans already have made up their minds, and are unlikely to change them. Both campaigns, therefore, are going after a relatively small number of people -- undecided voters -- and they're focusing virtually all of their attention on about 18 battleground states where the Electoral College battle will be won. That is where the candidates are spending their days and nights. That's where they are also spending their cash -- in the form of 30-second television commercials. In short, they're putting their money where their mouths are.
That helps set the stage for this Republican convention at Madison Square Garden. Bush-Cheney strategists have organized four days and nights of speeches, films and musical presentations with the purpose of attracting these so-called swing voters. Republican organizers acknowledge that their decision to invite several high-profile moderate Republicans to deliver prime time addresses underscores this fact. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger are proven winners among these swing voters and they will be spotlighted this week.
But it would be a mistake to assume that the Bush-Cheney team is simply going after these undecided voters. They have another critical target audience in mind as well -- namely the hard-core Republican base of the party. The Republican tickets needs to energize these conservative voters to make sure they actually get out and vote. High voter turnout among these conservatives in the key battleground states could make a huge difference. Republican operatives also want to make these the base works hard to get their like-minded friends to vote on November 2 as well.
Reaching out to these two very specific but different audiences won't be all that easy because what often appeals to moderate swing voters (remember those suburban "soccer moms") is poison to the conservative base -- and vice versa. The swing voters, by definition, want to see what President Bush four years ago called a "compassionate conservative" agenda. The Republican conservative base, on the other hand, wants a firm commitment to its social agenda -- think opposition to gun control, affirmative action, gay marriage and abortion rights for women.
Walking this delicate tightrope will be a challenge for the president and the vice president but it could be key to winning a second term.
The same, by the way, is the case for the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards. They want to mobilize their liberal Democratic base without alienating the moderate middle -- again, not an easy challenge for them either.
One additional footnote: Just as the Republicans showed up in Boston with their "truth squad" of talkers ready to appear on television, the Democrats will be very visible this week in New York as well. In the old days of politics, the "other" party usually let the party holding their convention have their day in the sun. That is certainly no longer the case.
