This could be Emmy year for 'Sopranos'
But awards may have surprises in store
By Todd Leopold
CNN
(CNN) -- So this is the year "The Sopranos" finally wins its Emmy, right?
Well, maybe. But that was what people were saying last year, too.
The HBO show about Mafia boss Tony Soprano and his unhappy mob families has been a critical favorite since its debut in 1999. Every year it's been nominated for best drama, however, it's lost -- usually to another critical favorite, NBC's "The West Wing." That was true even last year, when "Wing" was widely seen as having slipped in quality following the departure of creator Aaron Sorkin.
"'The Sopranos' will finally win the best drama Emmy it has deserved for so long. This year nothing comes close," TV Guide columnist Matt Roush told Goldderby.com, the awards handicapping site overseen by entertainment critic and author Tom O'Neil.
The 56th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are scheduled for 8 p.m. EDT Sunday on ABC. Gary Shandling will host.
The best drama competition this year includes "The West Wing" -- again; "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation," CBS' top-rated show about a police forensic team; Fox's "24," the Kiefer Sutherland show about a beleaguered government agent; and "Joan of Arcadia," the surprise CBS hit about a teenage girl who talks to God.
Both Goldderby's reviewers and the oddsmakers at WagerOnSports.com have "The Sopranos" as the favorite, and even the competition agrees.
"We're fairly sanguine that this is the 'Sopranos' ' coronation year," Joel Surnow, executive producer of "24," told The Hollywood Reporter's Ray Richmond, "and that's just fine because we're all huge fans of the show."
Tight races
But strange things have happened at the Emmys.
It used to be that the awards were rather predictable, rewarding the same shows and actors year after year. Now the opposite is becoming true. Predicted long shots are popping up in the winner's circle, and several cable channels are being recognized for their work along with the major broadcast networks.
 Cable TV's "Monk" brought Tony Shalhoub his first Emmy win in 2003. |  |
For example, last year Tony Shalhoub picked up a statuette for best actor in a comedy for his portrayal of the obsessive-compulsive title character, a San Francisco detective, in the USA Network show "Monk." The year before, Michael Chiklis won best actor in a drama for FX's "The Shield," overcoming predictions that "West Wing's" Martin Sheen had the award wrapped up.
This year's surprises include "Arcadia" and its star, Amber Tamblyn, both up in drama categories; and "Arrested Development," the free-wheeling Fox comedy up for best comedy series. Both shows were nominated in their first seasons, a rarity.
Both shows also have buzz, but that might not be enough to help them win Emmys, Goldderby.com's O'Neil told The Hollywood Reporter.
"'Joan of Arcadia' is a good show but a little too Christian-conservative/fuddy-duddy for the cool, cynical atheists of Hollywood," he said.
As for "Development," which is competing against HBO's "Curb Your Enthusiasm" and previous best comedy Emmy winners "Sex and the City" (HBO), "Will & Grace" (NBC) and "Everybody Loves Raymond" (CBS), O'Neil sees a tight race.
"You can't write off 'Arrested Development,' since Emmy voters love to rescue shows that are in the ratings toilet," he said. But with "Sex" having concluded its final season and "Raymond" the defending Emmy champ, he wouldn't rule out anything.
Favorite 'Angels'
This year's surprises included shows that weren't nominated in the best comedy or drama categories. Neither NBC's "Friends" nor "Frasier," in their final years, made the cut; neither did FX's "Nip/Tuck," CBS' "Without a Trace," HBO's "Carnivale" or NBC's "Law & Order."
There were also some surprises among acting nominees, most notably a nod for "8 Simple Rules"' John Ritter, who died early in the show's season. In the TV movie category, "The Reagans" -- a CBS-commissioned film that was eventually pulled from the network and aired on Showtime -- earned seven nominations.
"Vindication? Oh, my God, absolutely," co-producer Neil Meron told The Hollywood Reporter. "When you're attacked mercilessly for illogical and unpatriotic reasons, to be honored by Emmy voters in this way is just phenomenal."
|  Jeff Probst's hit reality show "Survivor" is pitted against "The Apprentice" and "The Amazing Race," among others. |
Among the tightest races is that for best reality-competition program, which pits "Survivor" against last season's breakout hit "The Apprentice," along with "The Amazing Race," "Last Comic Standing" and "American Idol."
Perhaps the ultimate Emmy favorite this year is "Angels in America," which has been nominated for 21 awards in several long-form and acting categories. The record for wins in a year by a miniseries is nine, held by "Roots"; the most awards for one program, ever, is held by the TV movie "Eleanor and Franklin," which won 11.
Goldderby.com puts the odds for an "Angels" best miniseries win at 1/20, and star Al Pacino is 1/6 to take best actor in a miniseries.
But who knows? If there's been anything predictable about the Emmys recently, it's that they're not always predictable.
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