Who's going to win Oscar?
CNN's fearless reviewer provides his prognostications
By Paul Clinton
CNN Reviewer
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"Cold Mountain's" Renee Zellweger (left, with Nicole Kidman) is considered the front-runner for best supporting actress.
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(CNN) -- This year, for some reason, conventional wisdom has settled early on several favorites for the 76th annual Academy Awards, scheduled for Sunday.
But guessing who's going to get the fickle Golden Boy can be a tricky proposition -- just ask Martin Scorsese, whose "Gangs of New York" went into last year's event with 10 nominations and limped home empty-handed.
Besides, this year has some interesting twists. These are the most international Oscars in years, with nominees from many countries -- especially within the four acting categories. On the other hand, maybe that doesn't indicate much: three of the five best picture nominees have no actors nominated at all, and none of the five best actress nominees appear in any of the films competing for the top prize.
With all of that -- or none of that -- in mind, here are my thoughts on the big prizes.
Best supporting actress
According to almost every prediction, the Academy should just deliver the statuette to Renee Zellweger's house and be done with it. They say the third time is the charm, and this is Zellweger's third nomination in as many years -- she lost for "Bridget Jones's Diary" and for "Chicago," so with "Cold Mountain" she seems to be due.
However, I enjoyed Patricia Clarkson in "Pieces of April" much more, and my own vote for best supporting actress goes to Shohreh Aghdashloo for her heartbreaking performance in "The House of Sand and Fog." But bottom line: This is Zellweger's year.
Best supporting actor
Again, one actor seems to have the lock on this award. This time it's Tim Robbins for his deeply moving portrayal of a broken man haunted by his past in "Mystic River." Robbins has long been underrated as an actor and this performance has made everybody sit up and take notice.
The only actor in this category who could upset Robbins is Alec Baldwin, for his highly charged performance as a sinister Las Vegas casino operator in the film "The Cooler." Baldwin has been around a long time and this is his best performance in years. He's now gone from leading man to character actor, and Hollywood may reward that move. But my vote is still for Robbins.
Best actress
If there is one sure thing in this year's race, it would seem to be Charlize Theron winning best actress for her stunning portrayal of serial killer Aileen Wuornos. The remarkable physical transformation by the former South African model, combined with the incredible acting skills she displayed, took everyone by surprise. She's gone from arm candy in slick studio productions such as "The Devil's Advocate" and "The Italian Job" to now emerge as one of the hottest dramatic actresses in the industry.
The only other candidate who could upset Theron's drive for the gold would be Diane Keaton for "Something's Gotta Give." She's enormously popular in Hollywood, and many Academy voters who are of "a certain age" may find that her character's successful quest for love as a mature woman with an older man speaks to their own hopes and dreams. But Theron is getting the gold.
Best actor
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Sean Penn's year? Penn (right), with Kevin Bacon in "Mystic River," is among the favorites for best actor.
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It looks like Sean Penn's year. This Hollywood bad boy, who has never approved of the entertainment industry's obsession with awards, has been nominated for Oscars four times and has never won. But this year he seems to be playing the game and attending some of the events surrounding the Academy Awards celebration. His performance in "Mystic River" is astounding and, despite his attitude regarding awards, he has long been considered one of the best actors of his generation.
His closest competition was thought to be Bill Murray in "Lost in Translation," but now -- with Johnny Depp's win at the SAG Awards -- Depp can no longer be considered a dark horse for his wonderfully comedic turn in "Pirates of the Caribbean." But my money's still with Penn.
Best director
Peter Jackson gave almost a decade of his life to making "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy.
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This is Peter Jackson's award to lose. His remarkable achievement of filming all three "Lord of the Rings" films at the same time, and making each film better than the preceding one, is a feat never before accomplished.
True, "Lost in Translation's" Sofia Coppola has also made history by being only the third woman -- and the first American woman -- ever to be nominated for best director, but her small, personal film, while beautifully crafted, can't measure up to the enormous task faced by Jackson.
Clint Eastwood ("Mystic River"), Fernando Meirelles ("City of God") and Peter Weir ("Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World") are all excellent, but Jackson is unbeatable.
Best picture
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The sprawling, brilliant "Return of the King" -- the capper to the "Rings" trilogy -- should win best picture, says Clinton.
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Everybody, but everybody, is predicting that "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" will win best picture. Peter Jackson's third installment of the trilogy has won nearly every award that has come its way this year, and given the films' history, why not: All three films were shot at the same time on an estimated $300 million budget, in the most ambitious undertaking in cinematic history. Hollywood seems poised to award this final installment all its highest accolades.
However, the Academy traditionally doesn't give the best picture nod to blockbusters -- "Titanic" being one of few exceptions -- and no fantasy film has ever been given the top honor. The only likely upset would be Clint Eastwood's "Mystic River."
But I doubt it's going to happen. I'm going with "Rings."
