Youth vote an Election Day wildcard
High interest, ubiquitous registration efforts
By Greg Botelho
CNN
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CLEVELAND, Ohio (CNN) -- One pitch appeals to young adults' independent streaks, such as the voter registration initiative "Declare Yourself."
Another, "Rock the Vote," plays on their rock 'n' roll fantasies.
Some political outreach efforts try to hook college-age people with humor, like "Voter Virgin."
Others, meanwhile, target their survival instincts -- as those who have run into anyone wearing a "Vote or Die" T-shirt can attest.
Groups soliciting and tracking voter registration initiatives, as well as many students and polls, tout great inroads stimulating this generation's interest in the 2004 race. But what impact the multipronged efforts will make November 2 and which candidate will benefit remain in question. (Special Report: America Votes 2004)
The youth vote wildcard could be pivotal in states like Iowa, Pennsylvania and Ohio, home to large student populations and tense presidential battles. (Showdown states Pennsylvania, Ohio)
More than 100,000 young people have registered to vote in Michigan and about that same number have registered in Wisconsin, according to reports. College campuses have been abuzz for months about the presidential election. (Showdown state Michigan)
"In the past, many assumed the nation's youth weren't engaged politically," said Shaan Gandhi, a sophomore at Case Western Reserve University in Ohio. "A lot of students are excited about this election. This should challenge the assumption of youth apathy."
In 2000, 42 percent of U.S. citizens age 18-24 voted (compared with 70 percent of those 25 and older). Youth voting has fallen 13 percent since 1972, the 1992 election being the lone exception in a steady decline, according to analysis by the CIRCLE research group.
The low bar set in 2000 could amplify the youth vote's importance this year, as a few thousand more casting ballots could tip the balance. Polling suggests relatively high youth interest tied to strong sentiments about the economy, Iraq war, terrorism and other issues.
In a September MTV/CIRCLE survey, 81 percent of young registered voters said they were paying attention to the election and 80 percent said they planned to vote.
Harvard professor and polling expert David King maintains the turnout rate will not be nearly as high, while pointing to "tremendous interest" in the race. Uneven voting patterns and uncertain political affiliation make young adults' impact hard to predict, he said.
"[Young adults] tend not to vote and they're very fickle, which means they are up for grabs," King said.
More voters despite obstacles
More than 80 percent of schools say they hosted political speakers in recent months, and more than 70 percent have had voter registration drives, a survey conducted for Harvard's Institute of Politics and the Chronicle of Higher Education said.
The same survey found that 36 percent of universities failed "to meet the spirit" of the 2002 Help America Vote Act, or HAVA. Among other measures, the legislation aims to offer simple, sensible ways to access voter registration material and vote.
Election officials in some college towns have been overwhelmed by new registrations and have made it more difficult for young adults to participate in the political process, King said, such as imposing strict residency requirements.
King, who helped write HAVA, said it is now harder for college students to vote. "We didn't see this coming, frankly."
Nonetheless, experts say extensive registration and get-out-the-vote efforts and a charged political climate will mean more young voters this year.
The Vanishing Voter Project reports half of those age 18-24 reported having an election-related conversation in the past day, twice the rate at the same point in the 2000 campaign.
"People our age, they want to vote," said Jessica Williams-Norton, 19, of Cleveland and a Case Western Reserve student. "It's really being stressed. ... They may not all be as educated, but many people vote already who don't know the candidates' stands on issues."
Put off by politics
The lessons of 2000, where a 537-vote differential in Florida and similarly small margins in New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin made the difference, resonate this year. (Showdown states Florida, New Mexico, Oregon, Wisconsin)
"I think it was actually good for the nation, spurring recognition that every vote counts. We realize it's a numbers game," said University of Florida senior Max Miller. "You take a controversial election, combine it with controversial policies, and you create an environment that will get people out to vote."
Still, many have negative views about politics, whether it's about President Bush or Sen. John Kerry, Congress, corporations, special interest groups or money's role in the system.
"When we consider politics, for many people it is a turnoff," said Fitzgerald Heslop, a senior at Fisk University in Tennessee. "So many people are fed up with politicians."
For some, the choices are staying on the sidelines, backing independent candidates unlikely to win or voting for "the lesser of two evils," said Case Western Reserve student Ben Greenberg, who is from Philadelphia.
But others see this election as too important, the differences too sharp, not to take a stand.
"This election is too crucial," said Phil Kehres, 20, of Cleveland and who attends Case Western Reserve. "You have to vote for the candidate who can bring you closest to the goals you want to see realized."
Critical election
Many 18- to 24-year-olds have unique insight into several hot-button issues, such as soaring tuition, uncertain job prospects in an uncertain economy or talk about reinstituting a draft. A large number have peers or relatives in the military. (Draft debate targets young voters)
Williams-Norton's brother is serving in Iraq. "He's getting eaten by sand flies, he's thinner and he seemed depressed," she said. "They may not be happy but, at least for my brother, he knew what he was getting to," she said, noting that he asked to be deployed.
Still, King says candidates' personalities and public image play an especially large factor in young voters' decisions.
"They are more likely to put an emphasis on leadership characteristics and authenticity, favoring candidates who do not look or sound like a politician," King said.
Kerry leads Bush in most youth vote polls, the latest an Institute of Politics survey of college students in which the senator held a commanding lead. In various polls, support for independent candidate Ralph Nader -- while above the average for all voters -- has steadily dropped. (Poll: College students moving toward Kerry)
But such results are hardly universal. A late September Pew Research Center survey, for instance, showed 48 percent of voters age 18-29 supporting Bush, with Kerry getting 42 percent backing.
Case Western Reserve student Brian Barrit, 21, says Kerry "will say anything to please his audience. He is a man who stands for everything, so he ends up standing for nothing."
College-age Bush critics fault the administration's policies as well as its poor communication -- its guardedness, they say, turning off a generation accustomed to accessing information quickly and easily via the Internet, TV, cell phones and the like.
"There is a lot of distrust among people this age, mainly because the administration is so opaque," said Greenberg. "Young people don't trust him."
The volatile youth vote could determine what many consider the most important election in recent history. Moreover, Gandhi says heavy turnout might determine young adults' importance in the political process.
"The youth must vote," he said. "If we vote in record numbers, that will send a strong message."
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Associated Press contributed to this report.
