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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
Kerry 3, Bush 0
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
 |  President Bush and John Kerry debated domestic issues during the final debate Wednesday in Arizona. |
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 VIDEO |
 Gallup's Frank Newport on results of a CNN/USA Today/Gallup snap poll.
 CNN's Carlos Watson grades the candidates' performances.
 CNN's Bill Schneider runs a fact-check on the debate.
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TEMPE, Arizona (CNN) -- Apparently under strict orders from his wife, President Bush stood up straight last night and avoided those dreaded scowls. He smiled, smiled, smiled, even giggled at times. It was his best performance. It was John Kerry's worst. Kerry still won. He's 3-0.
If you don't believe us, check out the post-debate CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup snap poll, which showed Kerry winning 52 percent to 39 percent. That's roughly the same margin Kerry enjoyed in the CNN survey coming out of Coral Gables, Florida, and we all know how that played out. (More on this below.)
It was a debate about guns, gays and God. It was about jobs, health care and flu vaccines. Tony Soprano even played a cameo role in a colloquy on taxes. But mostly it was a debate about women, whose unique interests were directly addressed by Bush and/or Kerry in response to at least 11 of moderator Bob Schieffer's 20 excellent questions.
Bush's internals must show female voters don't like attempts to paint Kerry as a "flip-flopper." It's a phrase, ubiquitous in Bush's stump speeches, that we didn't hear once last night.
Indeed, Bush-Cheney aides say they'll instead focus in the final 19 days on Kerry's "liberal" record -- a strategy that explains Bush's best delivered line last night. "You know, there's a mainstream in American politics and you sit right on the far left bank," Bush said to Kerry. "As a matter of fact, your record is such that Ted Kennedy, your colleague, is the conservative senator from Massachusetts."
Still, Bush's worst moment came early, after Kerry criticized him for failing to capture Osama bin Laden. Six months after Bush declared the al Qaeda leader must be caught "dead or alive," Kerry said, the president was asked (by CNN's Kelly Wallace), "Where is Osama bin Laden?" To which Bush said, "'I don't know. I don't really think about him very much. I'm not that concerned," according to Kerry.
"Gosh, I just don't think I ever said I'm not worried about Osama bin Laden. It's kind of one of those exaggerations," Bush responded, giving a special emphasis to the final word that's best described as cutesy.
Bush's retort sent the Democratic response machine into overdrive. Within nine minutes, they had distributed an audio link and a White House transcript from a March 13, 2002, news conference proving the president had said, well, just that. "I truly am not that concerned about him. I know he is on the run."
Had Bush ignored Kerry's critique, the senator's line would have been largely ignored. By challenging something so easy to confirm, however, the president ensured that TV viewers will watch replays of that 2002 news conference today and focus, once again, on bin Laden's enduring freedom and Bush's apparent nonchalance on the topic.
In response to a question on whether homosexuality is a choice, Kerry brought up Dick Cheney's daughter Mary, who, the senator said, "is a lesbian. ... [And] she would tell you that she's being who she was, she's being who she was born as."
Later, at a post-debate rally outside Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Lynne Cheney hit Kerry for mentioning Mary, calling it a "cheap and tawdry political trick." "This is not a good man," she said. "And, of course, I'm speaking as a mom and a pretty indignant mom." The vice president said later during an interview with WHO-TV in Des Moines, Iowa, that Kerry was "out of line" and "inappropriate" to bring his daughter into the debate.
Of course, Kerry's performance was hardly flawless, most notably in response to Schieffer's question about his wife, Teresa, and daughters. Most notably, while he offered his best-ever joke about Teresa's wealth, Kerry then shifted abruptly into a discussion of his late mother and integrity. In the words of one female debate watcher, "When someone asks about your wife, don't start talking about your mom. It's a real turnoff to women."
In other words, senator, no need to frame that red necktie you wore to all three debates, as senior adviser Mike McCurry says you considered doing.
(Speaking of sartorial nuggets, Teresa Heinz Kerry, who was accompanied last night by Michael J. Fox in Tempe, waxed philosophic on the press plane about the ketchup red suit she wore. It's the same Oscar de la Renta suit, you'll recall, that she wore in July when she delivered her convention speech in Boston. Oscar, we're told, is a fave designer of Teresa and Laura Bush.)
The political epicenter moves north today to Nevada, where both Kerry and the first lady will address an AARP national conference in Las Vegas. Kerry then flies to Des Moines for an evening rally with John Edwards, Heinz Kerry and Elizabeth Edwards. The president is also in Vegas today, but he won't attend the AARP event. He holds two rallies, one in Vegas with Republican governors and one in Reno. He then heads to Oregon.
Poll results
But back to our poll of people who watched the debate, which showed Kerry the clear winner. Fifty-two percent said Kerry did better, compared with 39 percent for Bush. (The poll was split, 36 percent to 36 percent, on Democratic and Republican respondents, with 28 percent independents. Previous debate polls had included more Republicans than Democrats.)
Two other polls offered mixed assessments. An ABC poll of registered voters showed a virtual tie of 42 percent to 41 percent, with the edge going to Kerry. CBS polled uncommitted voters, 39 percent of whom said Kerry won. Twenty-five percent said Bush; 36 percent called it a tie.
In the CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup survey, 42 percent said they had a more favorable view of Kerry after the debate, 15 percent less favorable.
For Bush, 27 percent said more favorable, 17 percent less. Sixty-one percent thought Kerry expressed himself more clearly, 29 percent said Bush did. The poll showed Kerry way ahead on understanding of the issues (49 percent to 37 percent), on sharing your values (50 percent to 46 percent) and on showing "he cares more about people like you" (53 percent to 41 percent). The president remained slightly ahead on most likable, 48 percent to 43 percent. Most believable went slightly to Kerry, 48 percent to 45 percent.
On issues, 51 percent said Kerry would handle the economy better, 46 percent said Bush would. Notably, Bush held a narrow 50 percent to 47 percent lead on who would handle taxes better. Kerry had the edge on health care (55 percent to 41 percent). Education was a virtual tie, with 48 percent saying Kerry would handle the issue better and 47 percent Bush. Fifty-three percent said they agreed with Kerry more on the issues, compared with 46 percent for Bush. (The survey of 511 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.)
Meanwhile, a Pennsylvania judge yesterday barred Ralph Nader from the state's November 2 ballot, saying his nominating petitions were "rife with forgeries." Citing signatures for Mickey Mouse, Fred Flintstone, John Kerry and even Ralph Nader, the judge said that fewer than 19,000 of the more than 51,000 signatures that Nader's supporters submitted were valid. Nader needed at least 25,697 to be listed on the ballot as an independent candidate.
