DeMint keeps lead in S.C. poll
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COLUMBIA, South Carolina (AP) -- Republican Jim DeMint is considered the front-runner in the race to replace retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings despite a few recent stumbles, political observers said.
In a state that leans to the right, experts say DeMint's comments last week that homosexuals and unwed mothers shouldn't be school teachers could actually energize his conservative base.
Furman University political scientist Danielle Vinson said the race is DeMint's to lose. "He's going to have to stop putting his foot in his mouth and start talking about the things he wants to talk about," she said.
The three-term congressman apologized last week and again Tuesday night for his comments about unwed, pregnant teachers being unfit to stand in front of the classroom. He came under fire from gay rights groups for saying openly gay men and women should not be public school teachers, but he offered them no apology. (Full story)
A recent Mason-Dixon poll of 625 registered voters showed half planned to vote for DeMint and 38 percent planned to vote for Democrat Inez Tenenbaum. That left a large gap of 12 percent who remained undecided in the last week of September when the poll was conducted at the end of September.
"We think the polls have tightened in the last week or so," said Spartanburg County GOP Chairman Rick Beltram. "People are paying attention and ... we think the number of undecided has actually gone up some."
The effect of DeMint's comments on undecided voters remains to be seen.
The fact that he has had to stop and deal with the fallout of the statements makes people re-evaluate him, said Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon.
"There are people who kind of are on the fence," he said. "The idea that people want to start banning [freedoms] could turn people against him."
Tenenbaum is by no means coasting to victory, however, experts say.
Tenenbaum quickly condemned the Republican's comments last week, but hardly pounded DeMint for the blunder. Instead, Tenenbaum continues to bash one issue -- DeMint's plan to eliminate the Internal Revenue Service and replace it with an estimated 23 percent national sales tax.
DeMint is the center of political conversations -- good or bad -- but he is not in control of the agenda, Vinson said.
"He needs to take back the agenda and force her to answer some questions instead of him being the one answering all the questions," she said.
DeMint has floated several ideas to stimulate the state's economy, but they're complex, especially the plan to scrap the IRS.
"People are a little bit confused about this 23 percent sales tax that's out on the table and also Jim's made a couple of comments," Beltram said. "I think it has thrown some people into the undecideds."
Tenenbaum's campaign and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee have jumped all over the tax plan and have poured millions into attack ads, forcing DeMint to spend to defend himself.
"I don't think that's enough for her to win," Vinson said. "There are people that are irked about DeMint, there are people who wonder about DeMint, but I don't think he's done anything yet to completely alienate the large number of people that are predisposed to vote for him because he is a Republican."
DeMint's campaign has failed to pin down Tenenbaum's campaign on a number of issues such as health care, Social Security or job growth, Vinson said.
Most of DeMint's attacks have been to defend his ideas.
"That only takes you so far. If he were to turn the attention on her ideas, again, that puts it back in his hands and it's his to lose because I'm not sure that she has formulated her ideas as clearly as perhaps some of us would like," Vinson said.
Tenenbaum was forced to assert her moderate views in a television ad last week. It was in response to a National Republican Senatorial Committee ad that says Tenenbaum is too liberal for South Carolina.
Tenenbaum's ad points out her support for making permanent President Bush's middle class tax cuts; support of the war in Iraq and the $87 billion to pay for it; and support for the death penalty.
It helps DeMint to link Tenenbaum to the national Democratic Party and presidential candidate John Kerry.
"She's going to have to overcome that," Vinson said. "Thus far, she's pointing out the problems with him, but I'm not sure she's giving them a good alternative, or at least making them comfortable with the alternative."
Beltram said Republicans are not taking their lead for granted and have rounded up volunteers to make 45,000 phone calls to undecided voters in Spartanburg County, for example.
