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Mark Shields is a nationally known columnist and commentator. |
Rules for predicting the election
WASHINGTON (Creators Syndicate) -- To those of us who eat, sleep and occasionally drink politics, nearly everything that happens in a presidential campaign is interesting, but very few things are really important.
What follows is a tip-sheet I hope will be helpful in following and understanding the last six weeks of the 2004 presidential campaign.
First, you can protect endless hours of valuable time by ignoring all stories on any of the following subjects:
Campaign personnel hiring and in-fighting
No undecided voter in or near Franklin County (Columbus), Ohio, will base her or his presidential decision on whether or not media-whiz Bob Shrum is still number one on John Kerry's dance card or if George W. Bush had to make clear to master strategist Karl Rove just who was really in charge of this campaign.
Candidate endorsements
Have you ever known anyone who said, "I don't really agree with Bill Clinton on any issue, but I'm going to vote for him because I have every CD Barbra Streisand has ever made, and I love her, and she's for him." Of course not. We no longer deliver milk or groceries in this country, and no endorser -- including the publicly dyspeptic Sen. Zell Miller -- delivers votes. (An exception to this rule would be made if the spouse of one candidate endorsed her/his spouse's opponent.)
Vice presidential candidates and the families
Memorize this rule: Voters vote for president; voters do not vote for vice president. If they did, the "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy" 1988 v.p. debate (which if it had been a professional boxing match would have been stopped by the attending physician as dangerously one-sided) would have sealed the win for Democratic ticket of Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis and Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen over Republican George H.W. Bush and Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle. Bush-Quayle carried 40 states.
The two conventions featured dueling appearances by the Kerry daughters and the Bush twins. The exceptionally popular first lady Laura Bush appears in Bush-Cheney campaign TV ads with her husband, the candidate, even though Vice President Cheney does not appear with his boss in any spots. But Bush's de facto running mate, Arizona Sen. John McCain does. Hmmm? Forget it. Nobody cares except a few media junkies for whom this stuff must be methadone.
What factors, then, do matter?
Debates
Voters treat the presidential debates for what they actually are -- their own personal and yet public job interview with the two individuals who are applying for the job of president. Debates enable voters to compare and evaluate the two men simultaneously under identical pressure and conditions.
In 1976, President Gerald Ford's historic comeback was derailed in the second debate when he declared implausibly that "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe." In 1980, a confident Ronald Reagan strolled across the stage to shake hands with President Jimmy Carter and then turned away Carter's harshest jabs with an avuncular quip: "There you go again."
Events
The unexpected, especially in these times, always manages to happen. Voters pay attention to how the candidates react. Deprived teleprompter and focus groups, does the candidate -- by his words and actions -- show leadership and judgment and confidence?
In 1960, when the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. was arrested at a sit-in and jailed on a bogus technicality, John Kennedy did something totally human -- and shrewdly political. Kennedy telephoned Coretta Scott King to offer support and comfort.
In 1964, when President Lyndon Johnson's top aide was arrested on a morals charge and before Republican Barry Goldwater could exploit the scandal, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev was toppled and China exploded its first nuclear bomb, which intervened to "rescue" Johnson.
Turn-Out
Yes, this is a hardy perennial of a story. But 2004 has all the markings of being unique.
This is a Big-Issue election. War and Peace. Economic anxiety with an ever-widening income gap between the best-off and almost everybody else. Voters see big differences between the parties and the presidential nominees. Both parties and scores of interest groups have committed unprecedented human and financial resources to registering and turning out their supporters.
One of the smartest Republican professionals I know in Ohio confided that he feared the GOP "needs a 5-point lead in the polls heading into Election Day" to counter what he sees as "the Democrats' intensity" and organizational commitment in the Buckeye state.
There it is, a map for interested voters. Please stay tuned.
