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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
Bush's bounce goes flat
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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 VIDEO |
 CNN's Frank Buckley on Kerry and the Bush military flap.
 CNN's Suzanne Malveaux on the Iraq report.
 CNN's Jeanne Meserve on questions about Bush documents.
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- We're going to keep it short this morning, even shorter than usual, so you'll have time to read our new analysis of the all-important Electoral Map (below), which now shows front-runner George W. Bush threatening John Kerry's lock on his native New England.
Still, our new map, which CNN's political unit will bring you every week until Election Day, does reflect a slowing of Bush's recent gains. For the first time since he floated out of Madison Square Garden on September 2, the president has failed this week to snare a blue state outright from Kerry's must-win column. That trend is mirrored in two new national polls out yesterday (Pew and Harris Interactive) that show Bush's post-convention bounce has evaporated and the race is once again a dead heat.
Then, of course, there's the new Gallup Poll, which came barreling into Camp Kerry's victory party this morning by showing Bush still holds a commanding 13-point lead over Kerry among likely voters.
So, what's it all mean? In the words of one of the country's best and most respected pollsters, "Heck if I know. [Shrug, head shaking back and forth, hands in the air]. Wish I could tell you."
The internal polls of both campaigns show the race is much closer than 13 points, although Bush-Cheney polls show them holding a solid lead. What's clear today is that the campaign's next defining moment won't be the next poll release, but the debates, about which we may be able to report more later today.
Nader's fate
Meanwhile, we're keeping an eye this morning on the Florida Supreme Court, which convenes at 8 a.m. ET to decide whether to recognize the Reform Party as a legitimate political organization and to grant ballot access to Ralph Nader.
Now, if anyone still doubts that Nader's biggest backers this year are Bush-loving Republicans, check out Sen. John McCain -- a Republican and, these days, self-described Bush-lover -- who penned a letter to the court urging them to let Nader run. "Keeping Nader off the ballot in the hope that his voters will be forced to support another candidate is patently unfair to those Floridians who, for whatever reason, have decided he's their man,'' McCain said in a statement from the Reform Institute, where he serves as chairman.
But wait, there's more: Trevor Potter, the institute's general counsel and former FEC chairman, told the New York Times that Nader aides first sought McCain's backing in the case last week and that subsequently Bush-Cheney also asked him to get involved.
And, of course, Nader is being represented today in Florida by Kenneth Sukhia, a former U.S. attorney under "41," who worked on the Bush-Cheney legal team in the Florida recount four years ago. Sukhia also has represented Florida Gov. Jeb Bush to defend an anti-abortion law in Florida and worked for the sitting president in a Texas state matter when he was the Lone Star governor.
Laurence Tribe, a Harvard law professor who worked with Al Gore in Florida 2000, is arguing on behalf of Democrats today.
The Florida matter must be resolved today. By state law, about 25,000 ballots must be sent by Saturday to overseas voters and military personnel who have requested them.
Kerry's new offense
Meanwhile, Kerry spends another day in New Mexico, where he'll launch a new attack, and a new TV ad, on Cheney/Halliburton.
"We need a commander in chief and a vice president who put the interests of our troops and our taxpayers ahead of their big money friends," Kerry will say. "We need a president and a vice president who won't sacrifice the taxpayers' money on the altar of no-bid cronyism while our fighting men and women go without the armor and equipment they need. ... As commander in chief, I will have two words for companies that cheat the U.S. military -- 'You're fired.'"
Camp Kerry's new ad goes up in battleground states, and follows Cheney to Oregon today.
Bush-Cheney 'pre-sponds' this morning. Spokesman Steve Schmidt calls Kerry's attack "false and baseless" and then quickly tries to change the subject. "John Kerry is talking about Halliburton because he doesn't want to talk about his $1.5 trillion big government health care plan that will take choices away from doctors and patients and put power in the hands of government bureaucrats," Schmidt said in a campaign memo. "He doesn't want to talk about his incoherent position on Iraq, which has befuddled even his supporters. Kerry's attacks on Halliburton are as credible as a Kitty Kelley novel."
Bush, meanwhile, returns to the fund-raising circuit today, raising money for Republicans in DC and then heading to Charlotte, North Carolina, to do so for Senate nominee Richard Burr. The Burr event is being held at the home of C.D. Spangler Jr., a retired banker and former president of the University of North Carolina system. Bush last appeared at a fund-raiser August 13 in Seattle.
Bush then spends the weekend at his family compound in Maine, where CNN's new Electoral Map shows he has picked off one of the state's four electoral votes.
For more on that, read on ...
Grind extra: Maine splits
President Bush is threatening Democrat John Kerry's lock on his native New England this week, gaining enough ground in Maine that he could pick up one of the state's four electoral votes if the election were held today, according to a new CNN analysis.
Otherwise, CNN's electoral map, based on state polling and interviews with strategists and analysts, remains unchanged from last week. This week, Bush gained one vote in Maine, giving him 290 electoral votes to Kerry's 248. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the election. Maine has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992.
But the map does reflect a slowing of Bush's recent gains. For the first time since he delivered his acceptance speech September 2, Bush has not picked off a state from the Kerry column. That trend is mirrored in two new national polls out today that show Bush's post-convention bounce has evaporated and the race is once again a statistical tie.
"What we're seeing in the latest polling is that Bush's post-convention gains were part of a bounce and not a larger trend, and as a result we're seeing the race return to even," said Stan Greenberg, a Democratic strategist and informal advisor to the Kerry campaign.
But Republicans continue to see gains for Bush. "We're still holding onto our base and building support in states that John Kerry should have locked up, states he needs to have locked up, by now," one senior Bush-Cheney campaign strategist said.
CNN's political unit compiled its latest electoral map after reviewing state polls and interviewing pollsters from both campaigns, as well as local political reporters, strategists and consultants. The map is not a prediction of the Election Day outcome, but rather a snapshot of how CNN believes the race stands today.
Bush currently leads in 31 states, including the country's entire southern rim except California, the mountain region and most of the plains. Kerry leads in the District of Columbia and the remaining 19 states, including the entire West Coast and Northeast. The two candidates continue to battle for control of the industrial Midwest.
Still, the race remains extremely close. If Kerry overtakes Bush in Florida, for example, he would surge to a small lead in the Electoral College.
Bush does continue to gain strength in crucial Democratic states like Oregon, Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey. Recent polls show that Kerry, who led Bush in all three northeastern states by double digits as recently as last month, now leads by a few points or is locked in a dead heat.
Four other states (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire) lean slightly toward Kerry, while five states (Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Mexico and Wisconsin) lean narrowly toward Bush.
Most of the movement this week is taking place in Maine, a state that has voted solidly for the Democratic nominee since 1992 but is extremely competitive this year. It is one of only two states (Nebraska is the other) to award electoral votes to candidates for carrying individual congressional districts. The state awards one electoral vote in each of its two districts, and two electoral votes to the statewide winner, meaning its four electoral votes could emerge in a 3-to-1 split.
Maine has only divided its votes once since the state entered the union, in the Jackson-Adams election of 1828.
If the 2004 election were held today, Bush would win one of those electoral votes. The Bush campaign had scaled back advertising in the state this month, but knowledgeable sources said that recent trends in the favor have convinced them to re-invest there.
Local analysts attribute Bush's strength in the state Al Gore won by five points to support among military veterans. Veterans make up about 13 percent of the national electorate, but that number is closer to 16 percent in the rural 2nd district, which stretches across the state's northern reaches (three-fourths of the state's land mass) and includes towns like Bangor and Lewiston. Bath Iron Works, a major Navy contractor, is located there.
Bush lost the state's 1st district, based in Portland, by 27,700 in 2000 and only 5,700 in the 2nd.
On Tuesday, the battle for veterans' votes landed in Bangor, where former Sen. Max Cleland, a chairman of Kerry's national campaign, blasted Bush's military record. About an hour later, a group of veterans backing the president met across town to show their support for Bush, who polls say maintains an edge over Kerry on national security issues.
Democrats, for their part, are focusing on health care in a state that has passed a series of progressive health-care laws. On Monday, former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, a national co-chairman of Kerry's campaign, made two stops in Maine to argue that the Bush health-care plan would trigger the biggest-ever increase in Medicare costs.
Democrats should also be focusing on boosting voter turnout. With just one exception since 1948, their party's nominee has carried Maine whenever voter turnout exceeded 65 percent. (Seventy-three percent of voters went to the polls in 1992, for example, sweeping Bill Clinton to victory). Republicans, meanwhile, have lost only once in Maine when turnout dropped below 65 percent.
Two initiatives on the state ballot this fall also could affect turnout, although it's unclear which candidate will benefit. Anti-tax activists have placed a controversial plan to cap Maine's property taxes on the ballot, while animal-rights activists are trying to ban bear-baiting statewide. Analysts say Bush could benefit from turnout among hunters in the state's rural 2nd district unhappy with the bear-baiting initiative.
CNN's Molly Levinson contributed to this report
