International issues overshadow campaigns
By Judy Woodruff
CNN Washington Bureau
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Just 50 days shy of the presidential election, President Bush and Sen. Kerry began the week debating their positions on the economy and healthcare.
But in a flash, international events overshadowed domestic policy on the campaign trail.
Over the weekend, approximately 80 Iraqi civilians were killed as insurgents battled in Baghdad. (Another 59 Iraqis -- mostly police recruits -- were killed in two incidents today.) These deaths came on the heels of another grim milestone in the war with Iraq: 1,000 American troops dead and more than 7,000 wounded.
And, by early Monday morning, the potential threat from North Korea was back on the political radar.
The North Korean government said the mushroom cloud spotted last week near the Chinese border was not the result of a nuclear test, but rather, the planned demolition of a mountain for a hydroelectric plant.
Kerry said the scare should raise red flags. In a statement the senator said, "The mere fact that we are even contemplating a nuclear weapons test by North Korea highlights a massive national security failure by President Bush."
When I spoke with Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Florida, on "Inside Politics" Monday, he said Kerry would have handled the situation in North Korea different than Bush. "I think (Kerry) would have used diplomacy plus an intensified intelligence effort to keep North Korea from dithering as they have dithered for the last two years," Nelson said.
So why hasn't Kerry made more headway with his foreign policy arguments given that these issues are at the forefront?
Nelson said it's a complex issue to understand. "Senator Kerry understands foreign relations inside and out," Nelson told me. "And when you're dealing with these governments, it's often the subtle hint, the nuance, the cock of the head, all the kind of messages that you send...."
Not surprisingly, from a political standpoint, senior Bush strategist, Matthew Dowd sees more challenges ahead for Kerry: "In order for John Kerry to win...he's going to have to defy all historical patterns where a challenger's been this far behind."
An incumbent president with a job approval rating above 50 has always won in the past, Dowd said.
But Tad Devine, senior Kerry strategist, sees potential for his candidate to translate foreign policy issues into a referendum on domestic issues.
"The persuadable voters are heavily inclined against the president," Devine said. "They're looking for someone to take this nation in a new direction....And I think Iraq is a perfect example: $200 billion being spent today in Iraq on -- over there when we need it over here to deal with the problems that we face here at home."
It is unclear how much time either candidate will spend talking about problems at home. When Iraq and North Korea are not in the spotlight, Vietnam is.
When I talked with Los Angeles Times columnist and CNN analyst Ron Brownstein on Inside Politics Monday, he said both campaigns believe voters care more about the choices the candidates are offering today than the choices they made 35 years ago.
But Vietnam is not likely to disappear from the headlines, given the latest controversy surrounding Bush's National Guard records.
The veracity of records, which were part of CBS's "60 Minutes" investigation into whether Bush received preferential treatment in getting out of his Texas Air National Guard commitments, has consumed much of the media's attention this week, and remains part of the campaign chatter.
In addition, as Brownstein said, Texans for Truth, a Democratic-leaning equivalent of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, has raised at least $400,000 since last week, and is running ads about a completely separate incident, the Alabama service of the president, unrelated to what "60 Minutes" is talking about.
Given the negative impact the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads has had on the Kerry campaign, the Democrats are likely to take a more aggressive approach in addressing these issues.
Yesterday, Bush and Kerry laid out widely divergent views on how to provide health care to Americans. But because the issues connected to Vietnam go to "character" questions about each candidate -- and those character questions are moving to the center of the campaign -- it remains to be seen if in 2004 the American people will be treated to a real debate on issues like the economy, health care and education.
The one sure opportunity could be the formal debates, which they are expected to participate in during the last five weeks of the campaign.
Judy Woodruff is CNN's prime anchor and senior correspondent. She also anchors "Judy Woodruff's Inside Politics," weekdays at 3:30 pm ET.
