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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
In like a lion ...
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Editor
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Changing gears: John Kerry may secure his nomination on "Super Tuesday," but President Bush is waiting just around the corner with his first TV ads.
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| ON CNN TV | 
Stay with CNN-USA for a special look at "Super Tuesday" on "Paula Zahn Now" at 8 p.m. ET Monday -- and live reports and updates all night on the 10-state primary battle to come. Then on Tuesday, watch for Wolf Blitzer's interview with Vice President Dick Cheney at 5 p.m ET.
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VIDEO
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CNN's Carlos Watson on the pressure John Edwards may face.
CNN's Deanna Morawski on the run-up to "Super Tuesday."
CNN's Bruce Morton on John Kerry's record.
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SPECIAL REPORT
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- March roars to life this week, much like a .... well, a lion.
We'll see a 10-state battle on Tuesday that should cement John Kerry's grip on history. Next, the long-awaited rollout of the first Bush-Cheney TV ads Thursday, a $4.4 million buy that should last about three weeks. The Gridiron Dinner is on Saturday, the same day Jayson Blair's tell-all book about life at The New York Times hits bookstores.
In California on Tuesday, Arnold Schwarzenegger faces his first true test since becoming governor. After ejecting Gray Davis in large part because of his poor fiscal stewardship, voters will consider two ballot questions on which Schwarzenegger has spent considerable capital: Props. 57 and 58. Both questions are expected to pass, boosting Schwarzenegger's 2006 re-election prospects and his down-the-road White House ambitions. (When Arnold will realize those ambitions, who can say? One constitutional amendment at a time, we say). (Schwarzenegger on who can run for president)
Sen. Barbara Boxer will also learn which Republican she'll face this fall; former California Secretary of State Bill Jones, the choice of Schwarzenegger and other party bigs, is heavily favored over former U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin and two other candidates. The GOP race pales when compared to the race six years ago to challenge Boxer. Republicans have raised a total $3 million -- far less than the $13 million spent by Matt Fong and Darrell Issa in the party's 1998 primary.
But just as our grade-school teachers taught us, we predict that once this week passes, the mystical month of March will settle into a quiet, non-political groove, closing out with the calm dignity of a ... well, a lamb.
Nonetheless, John Edwards made clear yesterday that the party ... er, primary ... will go on for another week, at least. Edwards told CNN's Wolf Blitzer that he would proceed to the March 9 primaries in Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas and Florida, "all places where I'm very strong." (CNN.com's interactive Election Calendar)
"And then the following week, and I think Kansas comes -- fits in this two-week schedule too -- the following week we have Illinois. And so this is a great opportunity for me, and the most important thing in those statistics, those numbers you just gave, is nobody is anywhere close to the number of delegates it's going to take to get this nomination."
That said, unless Edwards upsets Kerry in at least one of tomorrow's big contests, either winning or coming within low single digits of the front-runner in California, New York, Ohio or Georgia, we don't expect we'll focus much on his lingering ambitions.
Two reasons for this: One, the Democratic primary will, essentially, be over, and Edwards, regardless of his acts, will know that. Two, the general election campaign will have begun. If that didn't happen last week with President Bush's speech to the Republican Governors' Association, it will happen Thursday, when Bush starts airing that first round of TV ads.
CNN's John King reports that the total buy, starting March 4, is about $4.4 million and will last about three weeks. One spot is a positive English language ad focusing on Bush's record, and there is also a Spanish language version.
The ad will air nationally on CNN and other cable networks, in addition to Fox Sports and other sports networks to reach out to people watching NASCAR and golf. The campaign is also looking at buying ad time in 50 markets in 17 key states, mostly the large industrial states that were close in 2000.
After a few days, Bush-Cheney will go up with a second ad. The plan for now is a second positive spot, but campaign officials say they may make the second ad a negative "contrast" commercial.
