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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
Badgers vs. Wolverines
From John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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Going for it: Dean last night described his campaign's decision to put all its cheese in Wisconsin as "brilliant."
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| ON CNN TV | 
Stay with CNN-USA all weekend for live coverage of the presidential caucuses in Maine, and for updates and analysis of the campaign.
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VIDEO
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CNN's Bill Hemmer talks with Roy Neel, Howard Dean's new campaign manager.
CNN's John King talks with first lady Laura Bush.
CNN's Candy Crowley on '04 Dems' hopes of slowing John Kerry.
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| UPCOMING PRIMARIES |
• Saturday, February 7: Michigan and Washington caucuses • Sunday, February 8: Maine caucuses • Tuesday, February 10: Tennessee primary and Virginia primaries When is your primary? For more key dates in the 2004 election season, see our special America Votes 2004 Election Calendar |
SPECIAL REPORT
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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Just four weeks ago, John Kerry breathlessly touted a "major endorsement" in Iowa that aides said (hoped?) would change the course of the campaign.
Barely breaking a sweat, Howard Dean responded by unveiling support he'd received from Tom Harkin, easily overshadowing Kerry's nod from some guy named Tom Miller (Iowa's attorney general).
Now, it's Dean who lives in a shadow. While the former front-runner tries to reassure labor today by stumping in Wisconsin with Andy Stern, the SEIU's increasingly nervous president, Kerry travels to Michigan to win the endorsements of John Dingell, Michigan's labor-friendly congressman, and Dick Gephardt, the undisputed sweetheart of American labor.
Dingell, dean of the House and one of the most influential Democrats on Capitol Hill, whose support was actively sought by at least three '04 Dems, decided to go with Kerry last night. During his remarks this morning, we're told Dingell will jokingly refer to a letter the Bush-Cheney campaign sent him recently in which he mistakenly referred to him as a supporter.
• Dean can't catch a break (Part I): Gephardt and Kerry are to make it official at a rally in Warren. Gephardt plans to appear with the senator throughout the day.
Reaction to Gephardt's endorsement was muted from Dean and John Edwards.
Dean -- who couldn't possibly be surprised that Gephardt didn't choose him after, well, Iowa -- said the congressman is a "fine person." Period. "That's all I'm going to say."
For his part, Edwards, who has David Bonier on his team, said he thinks Gephardt is a "wonderful man." Unlike Dean, he elaborated, minimizing the importance of endorsements. "If you look at the history of endorsements in this campaign, they haven't had a lot of sway with voters, which is understandable," Edwards said. "Voters make their own decisions in presidential campaigns."
Dean won't even have the state of Wisconsin to himself to showcase his union appeal. Also in Milwaukee, Edwards gets the endorsement Saturday of the Union of Needletrades, Industrial and Textile Employees (UNITE).
While Kerry surely welcomes Gephardt's support, we have to wonder whether the senator is growing tired of nervous pols from must-win states, who seem only willing to let their constituents dictate which candidate they'll support. We're thinking of Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who endorsed Kerry two weeks after he won the Iowa caucuses, and Missouri Rep. Lacy Clay, who backed him Wednesday, one day after Kerry's 3-to-1 victory in the Show Me State.
• Dean can't catch a break (Part II): But back to Dean, who, seeing nothing but mean rivals and falling poll numbers in Michigan (Kerry now leads him by a 5-to-1 margin), abruptly canceled a town-hall forum last night and escaped to nearby Wisconsin, where Roy Neel tells us he'll campaign almost every day between now and the state's February 17 primary.
"We drew down the markers earlier today, we're 40 points down in Michigan and we need to get to Wisconsin fast," one Dean aide told CNN's Sasha Johnson. The only other state they plan to spend time in at this point is Maine, aides said.
Oh, well -- so much for Tennessee, Michigan, Washington, Nevada and Virginia, where Dems yesterday were surprised to learn from the Grind that Dean wouldn't attend their Jefferson-Jackson Dinner on Saturday night. (Dean says he's skipping J-J to attend his son's final hockey game before he graduates.)
No worries, one Virginia Democrat said. Dean had only purchased two or three tables at the Richmond fund-raiser, which is expected to generate a record-breaking $200,000 for the state's beleaguered party. (The '04 Dem most likely to raise eyebrows Saturday in Richmond: Wesley Clark, who had snapped up a whopping 16 tables, at last count.)
Unfortunately for Dean, the must-win Badger State seems almost as unfriendly as Michigan.
A new Badger Poll conducted January 27 to February 3 (before Joe Lieberman quit) indicated that Dean was tied with Lieberman for fourth place. John Kerry led with 35 percent, followed by Clark at 11 percent. As he's grown accustomed to doing (we're thinking of New Hampshire and Oklahoma), Edwards trailed narrowly behind Clark with 9 percent, while Dean and Lieberman each took 8 percent, which is essentially tied with Edwards given the survey's 5-percentage-points margin of error. Nineteen percent of voters were undecided.
Another new Badger Poll showed that Dean's unfavorable ratings have nearly doubled since December, from 20 percent to 34 percent, while his favorable ratings have dropped slightly, from 20 percent to 18 percent. Kerry's favorable ratings in Wisconsin have soared, from 17 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll.
Undaunted, Dean last night described his campaign's decision to put all its cheese in Wisconsin as "brilliant." "Brilliant" might be a little strong, but Dean has raised more than $600,000 since Tuesday night, meaning he's well on his way to raising a quarter-million dollars by tomorrow. Again overshadowing Dean, Kerry said he raised $750,000, just today, during fund-raising meetings. (Aides said Kerry has raised $5 million since January 1.)
So, how will Wisconsin play out? More specifically, will it give Dean the win he needs to survive until Super Tuesday on March 2?
Badger insiders say Dean has consistently had the strongest organization here, led by state Attorney General Peg Lautenschlager and Dane County (Madison) Executive Kathleen Falk, who took 27 percent in the '02 gubernatorial primary. Also backing Dean is John Erpenbach, the state Senate minority leader.
Still, don't read too much into that, one Badger said. "Dean clearly has the best organization, but he also had the best organization in Iowa and supposedly in New Hampshire, and that didn't work out well," Seth Boffeli, a state Democratic spokesman, told the Grind.
One trend that could work in Dean's favor in Wisconsin: A flurry of e-mails and newspaper editorials this week among Dennis Kucinich's supporters, who are urging others to rally behind Dean as the party's more viable leftist.
Sure, Kucinich draws only 2 percent of the vote in the latest Badger poll. But anyone who doubts Kucinich's power to sway an election need only look at Edwards and his second-place finish in Iowa. Stay tuned.
