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The Morning Grind / DayAhead |
South Carolina beckons
By John Mercurio
CNN Political Unit
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Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina considers South Carolina a must-win state. Polls indicate a tight race in that February 3 primary.
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| UPCOMING PRIMARIES |
• Tuesday, January 27: New Hampshire primary • Tuesday, February 3: Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina primaries; New Mexico Democratic caucus; Virginia Republican caucus When is your primary? For key dates in the 2004 election season, see our special America Votes 2004 Election Calendar |
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MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Our apologies to the Granite State, its friendly faces and frigid climes. But we're already looking ahead to the relatively balmy breezes of South Carolina.
Apparently, we're not alone. While they crisscross New Hampshire over the final weekend of the first significant primary campaign, '04 Democrats are frantically dialing area code 803 to lock down support, motivated by a fresh sense that this thing could remain wide open well into February.
Dick Gephardt's withdrawal Tuesday freed up the Palmetto State's two Democratic congressmen, Jim Clyburn and John Spratt, among others. While Spratt said that he'd likely wait until the Yanks cast their votes Tuesday, sources said that Clyburn, the state's most influential African-American politician, may announce he's siding with John Kerry, perhaps as soon as Friday.
Sources close to Spratt said that he has narrowed his choice to three Democrats -- Kerry, John Edwards and Wesley Clark. No surprise that Howard Dean's the odd man out, given the hard feelings that linger between Dean and Spratt's guy Gephardt.
In a post-debate interview with the Grind, Spratt seemed to talk most about Kerry, saying he was the likely winner of the final face-off Thursday night, "although it was not a knockdown."
He said Edwards also did well. "Clark keeps honing his message, he gets better and better," Spratt said. "He's still got a little bit of polishing to do to get his political appeal down to the level of the others who are more skilled practitioners than he is."
Comeback for Dean?
As for Dean, Spratt said he appeared subdued in the debate but said he still "might have made a little bit of a comeback."
A comeback indeed. And we're not even talking about the debate. It remains to be seen, but with back-to-back appearances Thursday night on ABC's "Primetime Thursday" and CBS' "Late Show With David Letterman," Dean could well have tamed the beast within. Or at least convinced us that he has.
But back to South Carolina, where any Dean comeback would be promptly tested.
Candidates are honing in on the dwindling list of undecided but influential Democrats -- from York County councilors to the mayor of Chester.
"I get several calls, but I always tell them I'm undecided. I'm looking for someone who's going to tell the truth instead of making false promises," said Ada Chisolm-Perry, a York County councilor. "We definitely will make an endorsement. It's getting very close."
Recent polls show it's anyone's race. An early January survey before Iowa showed Dean leading with 12 percent, followed by Edwards and Clark with 9 percent each. Kerry and Sen. Joe Lieberman trailed.
Southern sniping
The Southern sniping is heating up. No sooner had Kerry snared Sen. Fritz Hollings' endorsement than a rival camp was shopping around recent Kerry quotes that minimize the South's importance in '04. Minutes later, Edwards, who views South Carolina as a must-win, announced his own, lesser-known nods.
"We're not too concerned about" the Hollings endorsement, Edwards spokesman Roger Salazar said. "We have a strong network of elected officials in South Carolina."
Southern strategists said Edwards can't think too much about South Carolina until he has proven that Iowa was no fluke with a strong showing in the New Hampshire primary.
"If Kerry wins in New Hampshire, he'll be hard to stop," said Don Fowler, a former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party and Democratic National Committee. "If they don't create substantial credibility in Iowa and New Hampshire, they can't find salvation in South Carolina."
But Fowler said Dean should not be counted out, noting that he has the strongest field organization in the state (Gee, where have we heard that before?). He said Kerry's organization has been minimal since he moved his state staff to Iowa earlier this month.
Kerry will campaign Friday in New Hampshire with Hollings, former Sen. Max Cleland of Georgia and Jim Rassmann, whose life Kerry saved during combat, for a town-hall discussion with veterans in Manchester. Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts also will be on hand.
Clark will bring a little Southern flavor to New Hampshire on Saturday, appearing with former South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges and fellow Arkansan Mary Steenburgen, the actress and a prominent Friend of Bill.
Southern discomfort
So there's plenty of Southern comfort to go around and some discomfort as well. For his part, Dean received a little bad news about February 3 Thursday when Alvaro Cifuentes, chairman of the DNC Hispanic Caucus, pulled his support, citing discomfort with the Vermonter's post-caucus speech.
Cifuentes is a superdelegate, one of more than 800 party leaders and elected officials who will have an automatic vote at the convention in Boston.
Cifuentes is influential among Hispanic leaders in the February 3 primary states of New Mexico and Arizona.
"I have been struggling for the past 48 hours with the performance I saw on TV late Tuesday night. I instinctively turned it off after the first few minutes," Cifuentes wrote. "I respectfully withdraw my present endorsement to Dean's candidacy and wish him well in his presidential aspirations."
While Cifuentes has not endorsed another candidate, DNC sources said he has circulated an e-mail that heaped praise on Clark. Stay tuned.
